TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 1, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 1.13% downside to 1938 and 0.35% upside to 1967.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 2.09 from 2.07
- VIX closed at 11.57 1 day percent change of 2.75%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
- 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
- 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, June final, est. 57.5 (prior 57.5)
- 10am: ISM Manufacturing, June., est. 55.9 (prior 55.4)
- 10am: Construction Spending m/m, May, est. 0.5% (prior 0.2%)
- 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, July, est. 48.0 (prior 47.7)
- 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate on recess until July 8
- President Obama holds cabinet meeting, speaks on economy
- 8:30am: Treasury Sec. Jack Lew speaks at U.S.-China Business Council event ahead of his trip
- *U.S. ELECTION WRAP: McAllister to Seek Re-Election; Obamacare
WHAT TO WATCH:
- U.S. June vehicle sales starting ~8:30am - Preview
- Iraqi lawmakers meet amid rifts on Maliki’s political future
- China June Purchasing Mgrs at 51.0, matching estimates
- BNP agrees to pay $8.97b to End U.S. sanctions probe
- BNP Paribas seen rerouting dollar clearing to retain customers
- Macau casino revenue falls 3.7%, first drop in 5yrs
- Job gains fail to lower U.S. office-vacancy rate stuck at 16.8%
- Global equities may rise 8-9% in 12 months, UBS’s Haefele says
- Russell offers final member lists for Russell 1000, Russell 2000
- U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly strengthens on demand surge
- German joblessness unexpectedly increases for second month
- Poroshenko says Ukraine ends cease fire in Eastern regions
- U.S. foreign account tax compliance act takes effect
EARNINGS:
- A Schulman (SHLM) 4:30pm, $0.66
- Acuity Brands (AYI) 9:15am, $1.12
- Paychex (PAYX) 4:01pm, $0.40
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Iraq’s Kurds Vow to Keep Kirkuk Oil Fields Until Referendum
- Gold Rally Obscures Fund Outflow as Investors Target Shares
- Raw Materials’ Resurgence Follows Record Fund Exit: Commodities
- Zinc Drops From 16-Month High as Rally Is Judged to Be Excessive
- Soybeans Extend Slump on USDA Data as Corn Drops to 5-Month Low
- Cocoa Drops as Supplies From Ivory Coast Increase; Sugar Falls
- Gold Investor Index Falls to 4-Year Low as Rally Spurs Selling
- Steel Rebar Extends Quarterly Slump as China Steel Output Climbs
- Europe’s Seven Months of Warm Weather Set to Finish in July
- South Africa Close to Starting Yellow-Corn Exports to China
- Fuel Oil Shipments to Asia for July Arrival Increase to 3.3M Mt
- Uganda Seen Boosting Sugar Production 32% With New Factories
- Shutdown Threatening to Cost U.S. Ports $2 Billion Spurs Talks
- Gold Trades Near Three-Month High as Holdings to Economy Weighed
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team