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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 1, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 1.13% downside to 1938 and 0.35% upside to 1967.                                             

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.09 from 2.07
  • VIX closed at 11.57 1 day percent change of 2.75%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)               

  • 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, June final, est. 57.5 (prior 57.5)
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, June., est. 55.9 (prior 55.4)
  • 10am: Construction Spending m/m, May, est. 0.5% (prior 0.2%)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, July, est. 48.0 (prior 47.7)
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate on recess until July 8
    • President Obama holds cabinet meeting, speaks on economy
    • 8:30am: Treasury Sec. Jack Lew speaks at U.S.-China Business Council event ahead of his trip
    • *U.S. ELECTION WRAP: McAllister to Seek Re-Election; Obamacare

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • U.S. June vehicle sales starting ~8:30am - Preview
  • Iraqi lawmakers meet amid rifts on Maliki’s political future
  • China June Purchasing Mgrs at 51.0, matching estimates
  • BNP agrees to pay $8.97b to End U.S. sanctions probe
  • BNP Paribas seen rerouting dollar clearing to retain customers
  • Macau casino revenue falls 3.7%, first drop in 5yrs
  • Job gains fail to lower U.S. office-vacancy rate stuck at 16.8%
  • Global equities may rise 8-9% in 12 months, UBS’s Haefele says
  • Russell offers final member lists for Russell 1000, Russell 2000
  • U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly strengthens on demand surge
  • German joblessness unexpectedly increases for second month
  • Poroshenko says Ukraine ends cease fire in Eastern regions
  • U.S. foreign account tax compliance act takes effect

EARNINGS:

    • A Schulman (SHLM) 4:30pm, $0.66
    • Acuity Brands (AYI) 9:15am, $1.12
    • Paychex (PAYX) 4:01pm, $0.40

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Iraq’s Kurds Vow to Keep Kirkuk Oil Fields Until Referendum
  • Gold Rally Obscures Fund Outflow as Investors Target Shares
  • Raw Materials’ Resurgence Follows Record Fund Exit: Commodities
  • Zinc Drops From 16-Month High as Rally Is Judged to Be Excessive
  • Soybeans Extend Slump on USDA Data as Corn Drops to 5-Month Low
  • Cocoa Drops as Supplies From Ivory Coast Increase; Sugar Falls
  • Gold Investor Index Falls to 4-Year Low as Rally Spurs Selling
  • Steel Rebar Extends Quarterly Slump as China Steel Output Climbs
  • Europe’s Seven Months of Warm Weather Set to Finish in July
  • South Africa Close to Starting Yellow-Corn Exports to China
  • Fuel Oil Shipments to Asia for July Arrival Increase to 3.3M Mt
  • Uganda Seen Boosting Sugar Production 32% With New Factories
  • Shutdown Threatening to Cost U.S. Ports $2 Billion Spurs Talks
  • Gold Trades Near Three-Month High as Holdings to Economy Weighed

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

The Hedgeye Macro Team