CLIENT TALKING POINTS
COMMODITIES
In other news, as the USD declined yesterday, commodities hit a fresh year-to-date high – CRB Commodities Index = 313, or +11.8% year-to-date; it’s a lot easier being long inflation and the slower growth it derives than the Russell 2000.
COPPER
One of the few commodities that hasn’t ripped in 2014 is now signaling a potential bearish to bullish @Hedgeye TREND reversal; our breakout line = $3.10/lb, so watch that closely; almost every fund we speak to thinks this is a supply short.
UST 10YR
UST 10YR Yield -5 basis points for the week (-16% year-to-date) as the U.S. growth slowing data continues to support the case for downward dog bond yields; our predictive tracking algorithm for 2014 GDP is now tracking toward +1.3%; Q2 can only be better than a horrendous Q1, but Q314 GDP setting up to be a mess.
TOP LONG IDEAS
HOLX
Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration. The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month. Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements. When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner. With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds. Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.
OC
Construction activity remains cyclically depressed, but has likely begun the long process of recovery. A large multi-year rebound in construction should provide a tailwind to OC shares that the market appears to be underestimating. Both residential and nonresidential construction in the U.S. would need to roughly double to reach post-war demographic norms. As credit returns to the market and government funded construction begins to rebound, construction markets should make steady gains in coming years, quarterly weather aside, supporting OC’s revenue and capacity utilization.
LM
Legg Mason reported its month ending asset-under-management for April at the beginning of the week with a very positive result in its fixed income segment. The firm cited “significant” bond inflows for the month which we calculated to be over $2.3 billion. To contextualize this inflow amount we note that the entire U.S. mutual fund industry had total bond fund inflows of just $8.4 billion in April according to the Investment Company Institute, which provides an indication of the strong win rate for Legg alone last month. We also point out on a forward looking basis that the emerging trends in the mutual fund marketplace are starting to favor fixed income which should translate into accelerating positive trends at leading bond fund managers. Fixed income inflow is outpacing equities thus far in the second quarter of 2014 for the first time in 9 months which reflects the emerging defensive nature of global markets which is a good environment for leading fixed income houses including Legg Mason.
Asset Allocation
| CASH | 14% | US EQUITIES | 6% | |
| INTL EQUITIES | 15% | COMMODITIES | 24% | |
| FIXED INCOME | 26% | INTL CURRENCIES | 15% |
THREE FOR THE ROAD
TWEET OF THE DAY
Barney & Janet dont get this > Carney Says Housing Is ‘Biggest Risk’ as BOE Acts on Market http://bloom.bg/1o5Vb3U
@Keith McCullough
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Our knowledge of the factors which will govern the yield of an investment some years hence is usually very slight and often negligible.”
- John Maynard Keynes
STAT OF THE DAY
It has been 48 trading days since the S&P 500 has had a +/- 1% day, this has only happened 1 other time in 2 decades.