Eurozone equities closed squarely in the red today following the release of weak preliminary June figures for the Purchase Manager Index for the Eurozone, Germany, and France.
Eurozone Services slipped to 51.9 (52.2 est.) and Eurozone Manufacturing dropped to 52.8 (53.3 est.) vs. 53.2 prior. Similar results were recorded for Germany and France:
- Germany - Manufacturing PMI 52.4 JUN prelim. (52.5 est.) vs. 52.3 prior
- Germany - Services PMI 54.8 JUN prelim. (55.8 est.) vs. 56.0 prior
- France - Manufacturing PMI 47.8 JUN prelim. (49.5 est.) vs. 49.6 prior
- France - Services PMI 48.2 JUN prelim. (49.4 est.) vs. 49.1 prior
June marks the second consecutive monthly decline in PMIs, however on the margin we continue to like European equities over U.S. Equities. In fact, today Keith issued a buy signal in Austrian equities (etf: EWO) on the pullback in the Real-Time Alerts.
We expect interest rate policy from the ECB to remain “accommodative” and for ECB President Mario Draghi to keep the prospect of QE in his back pocket (forward expectations of its use should propel equities) and issue it only should a deterioration in fundamentals warrant its use. Over the weekend Draghi said interest rates “will” remain low until the end of 2016. CPI for May printed at +0.5% annualized which was the lowest level in four years. The full-year forecasts are now +0.7%, +1.1%, and +1.4% for 2014, 2015, and 2016 respectively.
Our quantitative outlook remains bullish:
- the Stoxx50 and Stoxx600 remain bullish TRADE (immediate term) and bullish TREND (intermediate term)
- the EUR/USD is holding our long-term TAIL support line of $1.35 versus an “ugly” U.S. Dollar in a bearish formation