UP: POUND, OIL, & GOLD

Client Talking Points

BOE

Our un-elected central planning overlords at the Fed should be taking down their U.S. growth estimates today. Bank of England, on the other hand, is basically chirping group-thinking economists, telling them to take up their expectations for a rate hike; not surprisingly, the Pound loves that ($1.694 vs USD, +8% year-over-year); the FTSE likes it too – We like it.

OIL

After last week’s ramp, oil prices holding strong; WTI crude up another +0.3% this morning to +$106.68/barrel, all but assuring you that the new year-to-date highs you saw in U.S. CPI yesterday (May +2.1% year-over-year) are going to continue higher in June #InflationAccelerating.

GOLD

Starting to make a stealth series of higher lows (vying for its 3rd consecutive up week at +6% YTD); if the Fed freaks on housing (MBA mortgage application awful again this morning) and/or growth, we think Gold continues higher in 2014.

Asset Allocation

CASH 10% US EQUITIES 4%
INTL EQUITIES 12% COMMODITIES 22%
FIXED INCOME 30% INTL CURRENCIES 22%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
HOLX

Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration.  The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month.  Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements.  When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner.  With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds. Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.

OC

Construction activity remains cyclically depressed, but has likely begun the long process of recovery.  A large multi-year rebound in construction should provide a tailwind to OC shares that the market appears to be underestimating.  Both residential and nonresidential construction in the U.S. would need to roughly double to reach post-war demographic norms.  As credit returns to the market and government funded construction begins to rebound, construction markets should make steady gains in coming years, quarterly weather aside, supporting OC’s revenue and capacity utilization.

LM

Legg Mason reported its month ending asset-under-management for April at the beginning of the week with a very positive result in its fixed income segment. The firm cited “significant” bond inflows for the month which we calculated to be over $2.3 billion. To contextualize this inflow amount we note that the entire U.S. mutual fund industry had total bond fund inflows of just $8.4 billion in April according to the Investment Company Institute, which provides an indication of the strong win rate for Legg alone last month. We also point out on a forward looking basis that the emerging trends in the mutual fund marketplace are starting to favor fixed income which should translate into accelerating positive trends at leading bond fund managers. Fixed income inflow is outpacing equities thus far in the second quarter of 2014 for the first time in 9 months which reflects the emerging defensive nature of global markets which is a good environment for leading fixed income houses including Legg Mason.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

42 days since $SPX has had a +/- move of 1% (2nd longest streak in 15yrs)

@KeithMcCullough 

QUOTE OF THE DAY

The strength of a family, like the strength of an army, is in its loyalty to each other.

-Mario Puzo

STAT OF THE DAY

Today in 1940, Winston Churchill gave his "Finest Hour" speech.