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CONSENSUS STARTS TO CATCH UP

Client Talking Points

UK

No need to cut any growth expectations in the UK, provided that they continue to talk up a rate hike and let the Pound rise. CPI is lowest since 2009 at +1.5% year-over-year in May, and UK consumers like it. Home prices accelerated again to +9.9% in May (vs 8%) too (we still like UK and India’s growth profiles).

OIL

After ramping +4.3% last week both Brent and WTI have corrected a whopping 1/10th of that this morning; with U.S. rents at all-time highs and Food prices +21% year-to-date, its intellectually dishonest to not call cost of living #InflationAccelerating in the U.S. at this point of 2014.

UST 10YR

U.S. 10-Year Yield back down to 2.59% seems to agree wholeheartedly with inflation slowing U.S. consumption growth; the immediate-term risk range for the 10yr is 2.46-2.65% ahead of what we think will be a dovish Fed statement tomorrow on U.S. economic growth.

Asset Allocation

CASH 10% US EQUITIES 4%
INTL EQUITIES 12% COMMODITIES 22%
FIXED INCOME 30% INTL CURRENCIES 22%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
HOLX

Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration.  The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month.  Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements.  When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner.  With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds. Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.

OC

Construction activity remains cyclically depressed, but has likely begun the long process of recovery.  A large multi-year rebound in construction should provide a tailwind to OC shares that the market appears to be underestimating.  Both residential and nonresidential construction in the U.S. would need to roughly double to reach post-war demographic norms.  As credit returns to the market and government funded construction begins to rebound, construction markets should make steady gains in coming years, quarterly weather aside, supporting OC’s revenue and capacity utilization.

LM

Legg Mason reported its month ending asset-under-management for April at the beginning of the week with a very positive result in its fixed income segment. The firm cited “significant” bond inflows for the month which we calculated to be over $2.3 billion. To contextualize this inflow amount we note that the entire U.S. mutual fund industry had total bond fund inflows of just $8.4 billion in April according to the Investment Company Institute, which provides an indication of the strong win rate for Legg alone last month. We also point out on a forward looking basis that the emerging trends in the mutual fund marketplace are starting to favor fixed income which should translate into accelerating positive trends at leading bond fund managers. Fixed income inflow is outpacing equities thus far in the second quarter of 2014 for the first time in 9 months which reflects the emerging defensive nature of global markets which is a good environment for leading fixed income houses including Legg Mason.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

BOE talking rate hikes again this morning - love that @KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“The positive thinker sees the invisible, feels the intangible, and achieves the impossible.”

-Winston Churchill 

STAT OF THE DAY

29, the number of seconds it took the United States to score its first goal In the 2-1 victory over Ghana in a World Cup Match yesterday. Ghana completed 445 passes to just 283 for the Red, White and Blue. Per the official FIFA match stats, Ghana had 65 dangerous attacks to just 22 for the U.S., including 21 attempts at the goal to just eight for the U.S. side.



LEISURE LETTER (06/17/2014)

Tickers: PENN, RCL

EVENTS

  • Wed-Thur June 18-19: Todd in Macau for meetings
  • Wed-Thurs June 18-19:  Hedgeye Cruise survey (pre-CCL F2Q)
  • Thurs June 19: LA May revs released

COMPANY NEWS

PENN – PENN and the Cordish Companies unveiled project details for 'Live! Hotel & Casino New York' to the Village of South Blooming Grove Board of Trustees.  The $750 million “Live! Hotel & Casino New York” is slated to include an upscale boutique 300-room hotel with luxury suites; a destination spa and fitness center; over 3,000 slot machines; more than 250 live table games; several marquee restaurants; as well as a live entertainment venue and a spacious conference center.

Takeaway: The balancing act of building with enough pizzazz to draw visitation and gaming spend while earning a sufficiently high ROIC to keep investors happy - while also considering the risk of cannibalization in seven years when metropolitan NYC opens to casino expansion.

 

RCL – signed an agreement with Taiwan International Ports Co. worth $33.3 million to build a cruise ship pier in outlying Penghu County to allow the company's cruise ships to dock there.  RCL will have a 51% stake in the investment.  The new pier will be complete in 2016 and will allow for cruise ships as large as Oasis of the Seas to dock there.

Takeaway:  Project aims to increase cruise awareness in China

INDUSTRY NEWS

Japan Gaming Legislation – The legislative process to approve gaming will on Wednesday when Hiroyuki Horsoda, the deputy secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, will introduce an integrated-resort legislation promotion bill.  Upon passage of this bill, a second bill will be introduced to set the standards by which Japan will open to legalized gambling (wagering via table games and slot machines).

Takeaway:  It's important that this bill reaches agreement in the Lower House as the much tougher battle will be in the Upper House, which may occur in Fall 2014.

 

Macau Visitation Rules - Secretary for Security Cheong Kuoc Van announced Macau reduced to five days, from seven, the permitted stay for Chinese passport holders who transit in the enclave effective from July 1.  Previously, mainlander Chinese were allowed to enter Macau, stay for up to seven days if they were in transit, and traveling on to a third country.  

Takeaway:  More of a headline to appease the Mainland than an issue that will negatively impact Macau visitation.

 

Indonesian Gaming Expansion – the first phase of Treasure Bay Bintan, an integrated-resort nearly five times the size (upon completion) of Marina Bay Sands, will open by year end.  The integrated-resort, developed by Landmarks Berhad, could cost around $4 billion and will be located just next to Bandar Bintan Telani Ferry Terminal - a 45-minute ferry ride from Singapore.  Spanning 90 hectares, the first phase of Treasure Bay Bintan will add 1,500 hotel rooms to the island. The third and final phase of the development will open in 2020. Upon completion the resort will encompass 338 hectares. 

Takeaway: A potential threat to Singapore integrated resorts. 

MACRO

Beijing Home Sales - home sales in Beijing fell 34.9% YoY during the first five months of 2014. The city said real estate developers sold 3.29 million square meters of housing during the period.  Housing starts fell 0.3% to 4.84 million square meters.  Sales of commercial buildings fell 33.6% YoY to 4.54 million square meters.

 

Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye

Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

June 17, 2014

June 17, 2014 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

June 17, 2014 - Slide2

June 17, 2014 - Slide3

June 17, 2014 - Slide4

June 17, 2014 - Slide5

June 17, 2014 - Slide6

June 17, 2014 - Slide7

 

BEARISH TRENDS

 

June 17, 2014 - Slide8

June 17, 2014 - Slide9

June 17, 2014 - Slide10

June 17, 2014 - Slide11
June 17, 2014 - Slide12

June 17, 2014 - Slide13



Shoe Shine?

This note was originally published at 8am on June 03, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Dude, look at your dirty shoes – you need a shine!”

-Joe (NYC)

 

Yesterday I was getting my shoes shined in NYC at one of my favorite spots – on the corner of Avenue of the Americas and 46th Street, right across from the building where I got fired.

 

Not that I keep track of the when and the why, but I wrote a book about it so it’s out there. Carlyle fired me for being “too bearish” on the US #ConsumerSlowing on November 2, 2007. My 1st son was born on November 7th. And the SP500 dropped 6% by the end of the month.

 

Yep, risk happens slowly, then all at once. You know when your shoes are dirty too. If you go to my spot, tell Joe I sent you. He’ll chirp anyone who is looking NYC serious with dirty shoes. Within a block, they all look down. They may not like it, but the truth is staring at them from their feet.

 

Shoe Shine? - boston shoe shine kids archive 66761 600x450

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Our preferred US Equity Growth index to be short of in 2014 remains the Russell 2000. In addition to being down -0.5% on Friday, it dropped another -0.7% yesterday to -3.1% YTD.

 

BREAKING: SP500 hits all-time highs –CNBC

 

Yep, as bond yields crash YTD (peak-to-trough decline in the 10yr Treasury Yield = 20%) and the Russell delivers negative returns, the world’s most consensus short position (SPX Index + E-mini) hit another new high on no volume yesterday. #hooray

 

Whatever you do, don’t look at your shoes yet.

 

Total US Equity Market Volume was -28% versus its 3-month average (and the average continues to crash!) and the US Equity market’s breadth (advancing vs. decline stocks) was negative yesterday too (46% gained in price, 50% declined). #dirty

 

But, but, you have to buy the SP500 … because it’s up, right?

 

As long as you buy SPX vs short Russell (IWM), I’m into that. From a risk Style Factoring perspective, the SP500 is not the Russell:

 

  1. SP500 has plenty of #InflationAccelerating components (like Energy and late-cycle Industrial companies taking price)
  2. SP500 has many more slow-growth #YieldChasing components (Utilities, REITS, Telecom, etc.)
  3. SP500 has way more consensus short sellers who tend to short low and cover high

 

Like the FTSE in the UK, the SP500 is much more multinational too. If you want the pure play on short US domestic growth, it’s the Russell.

 

While there’s no doubt that it’s a lot easier to call the macro game from the seat I have today than the one I used to be in, that doesn’t mean that market truths cease to exist. #OldWall hasn’t been there to help coach Portfolio Managers through US growth slowdowns. We have been.

 

Being right in an environment with Rising Variance at both the country and sector level gets easier if you know the macro economy we are in. With US #InflationAccelerating perpetuating US #ConsumerSlowing, here are the Top 3 US Equity Sectors you still want to be long:

 

  1. Energy (XLE)
  2. Utilities (XLU)
  3. REITS (VNQ)

 

To reiterate the Sector Style Factors you do not want to be long:

 

  1. Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
  2. Housing (ITB)
  3. Financials (XLF)

 

If you leave being US Equity market centric (life is easier that way), buying currencies and stocks in countries who had what the USA had last year (#StrongCurrency + #RatesRising and inflation deflating), current equity markets we still like on the long side are:

 

  1. United Kingdom (EWU)
  2. India (INP)
  3. Brazil (EWZ)

 

In addition to being long Bonds (TLT), Inflation Protection (TIP), and Commodities in 2014, it’s what you aren’t long when growth slows (bubble multiple stocks) that has made all the difference too.

 

My call wasn’t consensus in November 2007, and it wasn’t in January of 2014 either. While we need to be loud about seeing something that we don’t think the Street is paying attention to, we don’t want that to feel dirty to you. We want to help augment your process and keep your shoes shiny.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.42-2.57%

RUT 1089-1155

VIX 10.94-13.59

USD 80.05-80.75

British Pound 1.67-1.69

Brent Oil 108.42-110.76

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Shoe Shine? - SPX


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 17, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or 1.12% downside to 1916 and 0.68% upside to 1951.                                                       

                                                                        

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.13 from 2.13
  • VIX closed at 12.65 1 day percent change of 3.86%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)             

  • Fed opens two-day policy meeting
  • 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:30am: CPI y/y, May, est. 2% (prior 2%)
  • CPI ex-food and energy y/y, May, est. 1.8% (prior 1.8%)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, May, est. 1.03m (prior 1.072m)
  • Building Permits, May, est. 1.050m (prior 1.080m, revised 1.059m)
  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • Obama travels to Pittsburgh to speak on economy, then to NYC for DNC-LGBT gala, second DNC event
    • WHR CEO Fettig, WMT’s Gloeckler at Select USA forum
    • 8am: Senate Finance Cmte Chairman Ron Wyden
    • WSJ CFO conference in Washington, see program
    • 9am: Natl Assn of Manufacturers President Jay Timmons, Sr VP Aric Newhouse speaks at Bloomberg Government breakfast
    • 9:30am: Senate Permanent Subcmte on Investigations holds hearing on high-frequency trading
    • 1pm: Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-NC, head of House Financial Services’ Oversight panel
    • 10am: Senate Banking Cmte considers nominees: Julian Castro for HUD secretary, Laura Wertheimer for inspector general of Federal Housing Finance Agency
    • 11am: Sifma gives mid-year outlook for monetary policy, economic growth, employment
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Members Vie to Replace McCarthy as GOP Whip

               

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Fed will raise rates faster than investors expect: survey
  • GE to add commitment to protect French jobs to Alstom bid: FT
  • Boing, Lockheed JV starts work on new rocket engine: Reuters
  • Apple reaches settlement with U.S. states over e-book pricing
  • Hackers seen using complicit YouTube to sell stolen cards
  • N.Y. retailers agree to list unit prices on website
  • Sony May console sales beat Microsoft fifth straight month
  • Truckers fight federal rest rules after Morgan crash: NYT
  • Retail gasoline seen rising to 6-yr seasonal high
  • U.K. inflation falls more than forecast
  • Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasuries falls to 14-month low
  • ISIL militants attack north of Baghdad as Obama mulls options

 

EARNINGS:

    • Adobe Systems (ADBE) 4:05pm, $0.30   
    • Bob Evans Farms (BOBE) 4:02pm, $0.41 
    • FactSet Research Systems (FDS) 7am, $1.25        
    • John Wiley & Sons (JW/A) 8am , $0.68   
    • La-Z-Boy (LZB) 4:10pm, $0.32     
    • Yingli Green (YGE) 6am, ($0.23)

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Brent Crude Drops for Second Day as Iraqi Oil Secured; WTI Falls
  • Gold Extends Drop From Three-Week High Before Fed Policy Meeting
  • Beef Reaches U.S. Record as Rancher Sees More Gains: Commodities
  • China’s Port Probe May Curb Iron Ore Financing, Demand: ABN Amro
  • Copper Climbs as Higher Auto Sales Bolster Outlook for Demand
  • Kurdish Region Oil Exports At 200K-250K B/D in July: Hawrami
  • Kurds Grab Fourth-Largest Iraq Oilfield as Islamists Advance
  • Iron Ore Futures in Singapore Slump to Lowest Since April ’13
  • Russia’s $8.2 Trillion Oil Trove Locked Without U.S. Know-How
  • Corn Trades Near Four-Month Low as U.S. Crop Conditions Improve
  • Europe’s Swollen Gas Reserves Guard Against Repeat of ’06
  • RasGas Said to Shut LNG Plant in October for Three Weeks
  • BP to Sign $20 Billion LNG Supply Deal With China’s Cnooc Today
  • El Nino Seen Delayed by Australia as Pacific Ocean Warming Eases

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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