Economists are expecting tomorrow’s employment report to show 210,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in May.
Today’s poll question was: Do you trust the government’s employment numbers?
At the time of this post, 82% said NO; 18% said YES.
Here’s what those who voted NO had to say:
- “First of all, the employment numbers given by the government are based on those in work or actually seeking work. With such a discouraged labor force most no longer even seek work and after 6 months of doing so they do not even count as unemployed. so the unemployment rate may drop but it does not mean people are getting jobs, and could actually mean the opposite. Lets get America working again!”
- “There is little reported today that isn't seasonally adjusted beyond recognition or hedonic adjusted to show the minimal numbers of what is really happening like CPI, etc. Don't know how much longer markets are going to be fooled, probably depends on how much more money is printed or how long ZIRP like policy is extended.”
- “No, and neither does Mitt Romney. If you remember just before the election someone in California "forgot" to send their unemployment data thus making the number look better than they actually were. The problem with government data is that although figures never lie, liars figure.”
- “They have no upside in telling the truth about the total lack of aggregate demand in the economy. Participation rates back to levels last seen during the Carter admin. That's what we should watch, that and median household income and inflation.”
- “Incentives are in place for the government to lie. Plain and simple. I trust the US employment numbers only slightly more than I trust China's.”
- “The technical note in the BLS release even tells you not to trust the data as is reported...”
- “No, but I do trust the fixed income market's reaction to them!”
Conversely, this YES voter disagreed, saying that "while it's easy to poke holes and you are maybe right to be skeptical being correct on economic data only gets you so far. You must understand how the market will react to said economic data which gets increasingly complicated if you do not believe headline numbers the market is reacting to."
Likewise, another YES voter said, "It has been wrong all along, but as long as it's been consistently wrong. Why not?"