As you already now, May gross gaming revenues (GGR) increased only 9% YoY. Hold was not a factor but lower than expected VIP volumes were the main culprit to the soft month. We believe the timing shift of the Dragon Boat Festival and May’s rainy weather played a role but not enough to explain the shortfall. June looks like another high single digit growth month to us – probably not a catalyst for share appreciation.
The bad news is that VIP revenues grew only 2%. May VIP hold percentage of 2.93% (adjusted for direct play), compared with 2.90% last May. The good news is that Mass performed exceptionally well, up 36% YoY and 6% MoM. Galaxy was the big winner, massively outperforming the market on VIP (despite near normal hold) and a stable mass business. On the other hand, MGM massively underperformed across their VIP, Mass and Slots businesses.
Here are some takeaways:
Market
- Mass revenues grew 36%, slightly below the average growth for the last 12 months.
- VIP Rolling Chip (RC) volume and VIP revenues both decreased 2%
- RC volume grew at the slowest rate since October 2012 when RC volume contracted 5
- Slot revenue increased 6%, up from +4% in April but below the 9% average for the last 12 months.
- Assuming consistent hold in both periods, GGR would’ve grown 9% YoY
LVS
- GGR grew 21% YoY, up from 13% in April but slower than the 32% growth for the last 12 months.
- VIP revenues increased 4% and RC dropped 13% YoY as compared to VIP revenue growth of 18% and RC growth of 15% for the last 12 months.
- The LVS properties held just above normal on VIP
- Mass grew 45%, the highest of any gaming operator during May
- Market share was above trend in Mass and Rolling Chip volume
WYNN
- GGR dropped by 4%, significantly slower than the 14% growth for the last 12 months.
- VIP revenues decreased 16% and RC dropped 17% YoY as compared to VIP revenue growth of 11% and RC volume growth of 16% for the last 12 months.
- The RC contraction of 17% has not occurred since the 22% contraction in March 2013 and the 18% drop in July 2012.
- WYNN held high on VIP
- Mass growth was 36%
- Slot revenue grew 29%, the market leader in May
MGM
- YoY GGR growth dropped a shocking 11%, a rate not seen since the 18% contraction in October 2012
- VIP revenues decreased 22% also the lowest since October 2012
- RC declined 15%. MGM’s RC business could be under more pressure if Wynn Macau decides to get more aggressive on commissions advancement to junkets
- MGM held low in VIP
- Mass growth was 31%
- Slot revenue dropped 11%, the worst performance among the operators.
- The weak VIP business pushed market share below recent trend
MPEL
- GGR dropped 1% YoY and follows April’s 4% decline, a two consecutive month contraction not seen since July and August 2012.
- VIP revenues contracted 17%, due to weakness at Altira
- Held low on VIP
- RC volume contracted 23% following April’s down 21% – we’ve been hearing decreased play from “casual” junkets
- Mass grew 35%, just below the market
Galaxy
- GGR increased 24% YoY
- VIP revenues increased 25%, based on market leading results from Galaxy Macau
- Rolling chip volume increased a massive 30%, again driven by Galaxy Macau
- VIP hold was almost normal
- Mass grew 28% - as compared to 37% for the last 12 months.
- Slot revenues dropped 8%
