Poll of the Day Recap: 83% Expect GDP to Be Below 3%

Takeaway: 83% expect it to be BELOW 3%; 17% said ABOVE 3%.

We’ve been making the #GrowthSlowing call here at Hedgeye for months, so when the government reported first quarter GDP growth of 0.1% last month, it didn’t surprise us. It also won’t surprise us if the government revises its Q1 GDP estimate to a negative number tomorrow.
 

That said, #OldWall sees GDP accelerating in Q2. According to a Wall Street Journal survey of 48 economists, the consensus forecast is for the economy to expand 3.3% next quarter.
 

But we wanted to know what you thought.

 

Today’s poll question was: Do you expect GDP to be above or below 3% at the end of Q2?

 

Poll of the Day Recap: 83% Expect GDP to Be Below 3% - flattire


At the time of this post, 83% of voters expect it to be BELOW 3%; 17% said ABOVE 3%.


Of those who voted BELOW 3%, one person explained, “Corporate America is not going to invest capital needed to grow when you have an anti-capitalist President who believes in higher taxes, more government regulations and redistribution of wealth.  This is a ‘no-confidence’ economy.”

 

Additionally, this voter agreed the GDP would be BELOW 3% because it has “been declining since Q32013, 10 yr yields continue dropping since Dec2013…now @ 2.44% and housing has gotten bleaker; certainly makes a GDP > 3% truly improbable, if not impossible.”

 

Another voter said that though they expected it to BELOW 3%, “when you are able to change the rules and how they are calculated like in Italy recently adding prostitution and illegal drugs...anything is possible!”

 

On the opposite end, one ABOVE 3% voter noted: “Q1 will probably be revised to negative. But the YoY rate of change is likely to be flat-to-down. And down even more so as we progress throughout 2H14.”

SUBSCRIBE TO HEDGEYE.


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more