We’ve been making the #GrowthSlowing call here at Hedgeye for months, so when the government reported first quarter GDP growth of 0.1% last month, it didn’t surprise us. It also won’t surprise us if the government revises its Q1 GDP estimate to a negative number tomorrow.
That said, #OldWall sees GDP accelerating in Q2. According to a Wall Street Journal survey of 48 economists, the consensus forecast is for the economy to expand 3.3% next quarter.
But we wanted to know what you thought.
Today’s poll question was: Do you expect GDP to be above or below 3% at the end of Q2?
At the time of this post, 83% of voters expect it to be BELOW 3%; 17% said ABOVE 3%.
Of those who voted BELOW 3%, one person explained, “Corporate America is not going to invest capital needed to grow when you have an anti-capitalist President who believes in higher taxes, more government regulations and redistribution of wealth. This is a ‘no-confidence’ economy.”
Additionally, this voter agreed the GDP would be BELOW 3% because it has “been declining since Q32013, 10 yr yields continue dropping since Dec2013…now @ 2.44% and housing has gotten bleaker; certainly makes a GDP > 3% truly improbable, if not impossible.”
Another voter said that though they expected it to BELOW 3%, “when you are able to change the rules and how they are calculated like in Italy recently adding prostitution and illegal drugs...anything is possible!”
On the opposite end, one ABOVE 3% voter noted: “Q1 will probably be revised to negative. But the YoY rate of change is likely to be flat-to-down. And down even more so as we progress throughout 2H14.”