THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 21, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or 0.63% downside to 1861 and 0.54% upside to 1883.                                         

                                                                                      

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.19 from 2.18
  • VIX closed at 12.96 1 day percent change of 4.35%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

 

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, May 16 (prior 3.6%)
  • 10am: Fed’s Dudley speaks in New York
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 11am: Fed’s Yellen speaks in New York
  • 12:50pm: Fed’s George speaks in Washington
  • 1:30pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Minneapolis
  • 2pm: FOMC releases minutes from April 29-30 meeting

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama visits Interior Dept, signs proclamation on new national monument in N.M., holds ambassador credentialing ceremony in Oval Office
    • Nunn aided by Georgia Republicans forced into Senate runoff
    • Senate to vote on confirmation of Stanley Fischer for Fed; likely to hold separate vote later making Fischer vice chairman
    • 10am: Senate Finance Cmte hears from Social Security Admin. chief actuary Stephen Goss on strengthening Social Security
    • 10am: CFTC’s Global Markets Advisory Cmte holds meeting, considers regulatory treatment of foreign-based swap clearinghouses
    • 10am: 2 House Homeland Security Subcmtes hold joint hearing on emerging cyberthreats to U.S.
    • 2pm: House Financial Services Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit Subcmte will review legislation on transparency, accountability at CFPB
    • 2pm: Senate Finance Cmte votes on nomination of Sylvia Mathews Burwell for HHS Sec.

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • FOMC minutes preview: exit strategy, employment view
  • Netflix enters Germany, France in biggest expansion since 2011
  • Woodside scraps $2.6b Israeli gas deal as talks fail
  • ‘Surprised’ Microsoft works w/China after Windows 8 exclusion
  • Senate confirmation vote on Fischer for Fed scheduled today
  • BNP drops as U.S. said to seek $5b in sanctions probe
  • Google says it needs up to $30b cash overseas for deals
  • Nasdaq hunting Alibaba after ‘hundreds’ of smooth IPOs: CFO
  • China’s JD.com seeks Jeff Bezos treatment with $1.7b IPO
  • KCG joins Liquidnet in quest for more dark pool transparency
  • Batista bases insider-trading defense on Mubadala share deal
  • Target releases first earnings since firing CEO
  • Skanska moves engineers to California as Apple work helps
  • First Solar, India developers oppose dumping findings in court
  • U.K. retail sales surged in April as discounting boosts food

 

AM EARNS:

    • American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) 8am, $0.00 - Preview
    • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) 6:30am, $0.31
    • Eaton Vance (EV) 8:38am, $0.55
    • Hormel Foods (HRL) 6:30am, $0.56
    • Lowe’s Cos (LOW) 6am, $0.60 - Preview
    • PetSmart (PETM) 7am, $1.02
    • Raven Industries (RAVN) 9am, $0.33
    • Sears Canada (SCC CN) 7am, NA
    • Target (TGT) 7:30am, $0.71 - Preview
    • Tiffany & Co (TIF) 6:45am, $0.78

 

PM EARNS:

    • Giant Interactive (GA) 4:05pm, NA
    • L Brands (LB) 4pm, $0.52
    • NetApp (NTAP) 4:01pm, $0.79
    • Renren (RENN) 6pm, $0.09
    • Semtech (SMTC) 4:30pm, $0.30
    • Sina (SINA) 4:30pm, $0.15
    • Synopsys (SNPS) 4:05pm, $0.60
    • Williams-Sonoma (WSM) 4:05pm, $0.44

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

  • Goldman Widens Iron Ore Surplus Forecast on China Steel Slowdown
  • WTI Crude Rises to One-Month High on Supply Drop; Brent Advances
  • Copper Reaches One-Week Low as Chinese House Sales Seen Slowing
  • Palladium at Highest Since 2011 With Fund Holdings Near Record
  • Wheat Climbs as Slide Seen Attracting Buyers With Russia Heat
  • Cocoa Extends Longest Rally Since January in London; Sugar Falls
  • China’s Nickel Ore Imports From Indonesia Slump 67% in April
  • China’s Imports of U.S. Corn Plummet as Curbs on GM Seed Tighten
  • Gold Demand in Vietnam Seen Declining by Half as Inflation Slows
  • Tranquility in Crude Repels Chaos-Loving ETP Investors: Energy
  • Ex-Millennium Trader Rosengren Joins Modity Energy in Sweden
  • Christmas Comes Early to LME on China Holidays: Chart of the Day
  • Argentina Shale Has Geological Potential for U.S.-Like Surge
  • Steel Rebar Rises From Record Low After Iron Ore Futures Rebound

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more