This past week's numbers look unreliable.
The numbers are in and last week generated HK$6.2 billion in table revenues for the Macau casinos, as reported. HK$6.2 billion is one of the “placeholder” numbers we’ve written about extensively and cannot be relied upon (see our note, "WE'VE BEEN PLACEHOLDERED!" on 4/29/2014). In fact, the 3rd week of May last year also generated exactly HK$6.2 billion of table revenue. Moreover, month to date table revenues totaled HK$18.6 billion - divided by the 3 weeks equates to, you guessed it, HK$6.2 billion per week. Come on, can we be at least a little creative?
We expect a positive catch up in next week’s data or the subsequent week that could push YoY growth close to our 20% estimate. In fact, our sources on the ground are indicating they are pleased with both VIP and Mass volumes and hold percentage seems to be tracking close to normal. The UnionPay issue, junket incidents, and China Macro do not appear to be having much of a negative impact on the market.
For market share, Galaxy is the only company tracking meaningfully above its recent trend, at the expense of SJM.
