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 TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 15, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or 0.77% downside to 1874 and 0.66% upside to 1901.                                                 

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.17 from 2.18
  • VIX closed at 12.17 1 day percent change of 0.33%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):


  • 7:30am: Empire Manufacturing, May, est. 6 (prior 1.29)
  • 8:30am: Fed’s Dudley speaks in New York
  • 8:30am: Consumer Price Index, April, est. 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
  • CPI Ex Food and Energy, April, est. 0.1% (prior 0.2%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, May 10, est. 320k (prior 319k)
  • Continuing Claims, May 3, est. 2.690m (prior 2.685m)
  • 9am: Net Long-term TIC Flows, March est. $40b (prior $85.7b)
  • Total Net TIC Flows, March (prior $167.7b)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, April, est. 0.0% (prior 0.7%)
  • Capacity Utilization, April, est. 79.1% (prior 79.2%)
  • Manufacturing (SIC) Production, April, est. 0.3% (prior 0.5%)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, May 11 (prior 37.1)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, May, est. 14.0 (prior 16.6)
  • 10am: MBA Mortgage Delinquencies, 1Q (prior 6.39%)
  • Mortgage Foreclosures, 1Q (prior 2.86%)
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, May, est. 49 (prior 47)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • TBA: Commerce Dept. issues benchmark revisions on factory orders, etc.
  • 6:10pm: Fed’s Yellen speaks in Washington

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate in session, House out
    • President Obama speaks at National Sept 11th Memorial/Museum
    • 10am: Senate Banking Cmte marks up housing finance bill; 538 Dirksen
    • 10:30am: Sens. Durbin, Harkin, Murphy, Schatz, hold news conf. w/Young Invincibles to call on Education Dept to put stronger student protections for-profit college career ed pgms
    • 10:30am: FCC set to decide whether to start writing open-Internet rules .
    • Also considering policies, rules for broadcast TV spectrum incentive auction, aggregation spectrum rules for mobile wireless services
    • U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman visits China to talk with officials ahead of APEC Trade Ministers meeting in Qingdao
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Bill Clinton on Immigration; Democrats’ Ads

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Europe economy underperforms with weakness from France to Italy
  • FCC to decide whether to write open-Internet rules
  • France fortifies anti-takeover tool as GE-Siemens eye Alstom
  • Cisco sales forecast tops ests. as Chambers seeks turnaround
  • 13F deadline: Ackman, Buffett, Peltz to divulge holdings
  • JPMorgan, Citigroup, others release monthly delinquencies
  • CFTC reviews U.S. banks’ overseas trading for possible evasion
  • Carlyle’s Rubenstein speaks as SALT Conference continues
  • Changes announced for MSCI country index shuffle
  • AstraZeneca cancer drug coveted by Pfizer shows promise in trial
  • Senators ask for anti-trust review on PFE, AZN plan: Reuters
  • Times Co. publisher said to always have clashed with Abramson
  • Wynn, MGM plan Japan IPOs to fund casino projects
  • Teva loses suit seeking to block FDA generic Copaxone approval
  • Musk sees need for multiple “gigafactories” for battery demand
  • Japan’s economy accelerated in 1Q before tax rise
  • Senate Banking Cmte marks up Fannie Mae reform bill
  • Murphy Oil looking to sell stake in Malaysian assets: WSJ

EARNINGS:

    • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) 8:30am, $2.15
    • Air Canada (AC/B CN) 6am, C$(0.48) - Preview
    • Alliant Techsystems (ATK) 7am, $2.40
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:02pm, $0.28
    • Autodesk (ADSK) 4:01pm, $0.21
    • CA Inc (CA) 7am, $0.59
    • CAE (CAE CN) 8:40am, C$0.20
    • Flowers Foods (FLO) 6am, $0.30
    • J.C. Penney (JCP) 4pm, $(1.22) - Preview
    • Kohl’s (KSS) 7am, $0.63 - Preview
    • Nordstrom (JWN) 4:04pm, $0.68 - Preview
    • Power of Canada (POW CN) 2pm, C$0.61
    • Prestige Brands (PBH) 6am, $0.33
    • Teekay (TK) 8:30am, $(0.18)
    • Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) 7:02am, $1.15 - Preview

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

  • Nickel Plunges Most in 31 Months as Surge Judged to Be Overdone
  • WTI Drops From Three-Week High as Stockpiles Gain; Brent Steady
  • China Aluminum Sales for Beer Cans Foiling Deficit: Commodities
  • Gold Below One-Week High as U.S. Outlook Weighed Against Ukraine
  • Coffee Advances as Brazilian Output Seen Lower; Sugar Retreats
  • Wheat Extends Longest Slump Since November on Ample World Supply
  • Gold Sales Drop in Hong Kong Seen Signaling Lower Chinese Demand
  • Steel Rebar Falls to Record Low as Chinese Mills Increase Output
  • London Metal Exchange Gets Permission to Appeal Warehouse Ruling
  • IEA Sees Higher Demand for OPEC Crude Amid Inventory Deficit
  • Moscow Hosts Summit as Gazprom Warns Ukraine on Gas Cut: Energy
  • Chocolate Consumption in Indonesia Seen Doubling in Three Years
  • Long-Run Coking Coal Demand Underpinned by Steel, Urbanization
  • Pemex May Struggle to Keep Output as Mexico Debates Energy Laws

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

The Hedgeye Macro Team