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Takeaway: The weather turned, but the consumption data that matters most didn’t.

POSITION: 8 LONGS, 7 SHORTS

But whatever you do, don’t call falling bond yields (do not sell bonds here!) on today’s #ConsumerSlowing (Retail Sales +0.1%) print a US growth slowing confirmation. The weather turned, but the consumption data that matters most didn’t.

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

  1. Immediate-term TRADE overbought = 1901
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1866
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1845

In other words, you have -1.8% and -2.9% immediate (TRADE) and intermediate-term (TREND) risk to the downside if you get plugged chasing the all-time SPY high here. So don’t do that.

Both the Russell2000 and UST 10yr yields remain bearish, because growth is slowing.

KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Sell Growth: SP500 Levels, Refreshed  - SPX