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Squeezy's Biting: SP500 Levels, Refreshed...

When I made the transition from being wrong on the top end of my Range Rover (954) to calling it for what it was – a confirmed breakout - I started giving you higher-lows of support and higher-highs of resistance. At 3PM EST today, I’m going to take up those levels once again.

My immediate term TRADE line of resistance (dotted red) is now 998, and my immediate term TRADE line of support is 971.

Don’t chase them higher here. Make some sales.

Provided that we continue to hold this pattern of broken volatility (VIX) and bullish price/volume, buy them when they are red and sell them when they are green. The big crash and squeeze moves are rear-view events. Now your daily risk management objective is to play the game that you see in front of you.

KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Squeezy's Biting: SP500 Levels, Refreshed...  - kmsp


WYNN: CONF CALL HIGHLIGHTS

Steve Wynn was more optimistic than the last time we heard from him. Cost cuts were very impressive in the quarter, revenues remain under pressure.  New Mass supply in Macau and high supply in Las Vegas are our major concerns.

 

WYNN 2Q09 Earnings call:

  • Things seem to be stabilizing in Vegas and China
  • Since March they felt a change in operations
  • They are feeling optimistic, still seeing Asian business in Vegas growing
  • They are as satisfied as they can be given that world is still so uncertain
  • More afraid of Washington than the economy
  • Mid week small business meetings are still off, but are benefitting somewhat with dealing with the high end customer
  • Encore – most beautiful building that they have ever built, on time and on budget for this spring

Q&A

  • Thoughts on lowering the gaming tax in Macau?
    • Government may or may not be in sync with Stanley Ho’s comments
    • Likes the new CE, “full-fledged doctor, a PHD”, will look out for the interests of the people of Macau and the businesses that create jobs… Sounds like Steve thinks that there is a good possibility that the tax rate gets lowered
  • Thoughts on VIP commission cap? Any benefit to Wynn?
    • Never went above 1.25%, and the fact that the market has realized that there is no benefit to destroying margins is a positive for the market as a whole.
    • Made some comment about not paying taxes – re: competitors
    • Question of enforcement remains
  • Areas where they cut costs, is there more to go?
    • FTE’s were down by asking for reduced work weeks, salaries and increased time off, they saved $65k per day here
    • Hundreds of other initiatives, related to operating supplies, promotional expenses, communication
    • In total recognized $140k per day of savings, and think that this is where they are going to be
    • $35MM behind on a run-rate basis from 2008 (revenue wise), but comparisons become easier going forward, thinks that the net effect will look softer going forward. Took out a $100MM of costs, which will benefit them as the market recovers
    • Let’s suppose they can take out another $15MM of costs, not sure if it makes sense because it will dislocate their employees… they think it is bad business to cut more costs.  It’s about the people not the money
    • Kicked off initiatives of cost savings in Macau, realized $50MM of costs savings there which can ramp to $66MM.  It’s not at the expense of employees or the franchise.  900 FTE’s lower than last year.
  • Strategy into the City Center opening? Any change in pricing strategy?
    • First people likely to try the new product will be Bellagio and also Wynn customers but the real test of whether they become loyal City Center customers will be guest experience
    • Thinks that City Center needs to charge Wynn/Bellagio/Caesar’s prices to make money
    • Only thing WYNN will do to compete is to keep the service at his property top notch, doesn’t think that price matters.  I’m not so sure, price matters when you have a corporate limit on what you can spend.
  • No reversal of bad debt provisions in Macau or Las Vegas
  • Promotional expense in Vegas being lower – reflection on being more focused on who should be at the hotel (more marketing-focused – hence occupancy was down)
  • Looking forward to the opportunity of developing Cotai … states that the Encore Macau is the most beautiful hotel in the world.  It should be at a cost of $1.6MM per key
  • Another Obama shot…
  • Growth plans, if they raise money in Asia, what will they use it for, can they bring it back to the US?
    • They are in a quiet period - can’t comment on filing
    • Growth plan commentary:  The policy of WYNN is to do one thing and do it well
      • Regarding Aqueduct, they want to do something completely different there.  Just finished presenting their plan this week. May not win, there is a very aggressive group of bidders. Schedule is unclear – decision needs to be made by multiple government bodies.  This Friday they conclude questioning all the applicants. How long they take to make a decision is unclear
      • Next move in Asia is Cotai
      • If Japan would be interested in a large scale resort they would be “on it” and Taiwan would warrant a look. Regrettably passed up Singapore because he was worried that he couldn’t commit to more than one project and give it the appropriate attention given what he had committed to in Macau
      • Love that he takes a shot at MGM & LVS getting into trouble by “losing focus” and biting off too much to chew on
  • Comment on what is happening on the promotional side in Las Vegas
    • Still heavily discounting rates and offering packages with lots of credits
  • Capital expenditures, how the $125MM breaks out, going forward?
    • $50MM was Encore Vas Legas
    • $55MM was Encore Macau 
    • Maintenance was approximately $25MM
    • Budget for Wynn Macau was revised down by $50MM to $650MM will start ramping up and then have the expenses that come 60-90 days post opening
  • Tax rate tutorial?
    • 42% effective tax rate
    • Quarterly tax provisions are hard to calculate because they are based on full year estimates that then get allocated quarterly
    • This quarter, taxes were high because results were better than expected
  • Impact from Danny Gans’ death? Who will they replace him with?
    • Beyonce is a special event
    • Danny Gans was basically break-even to slightly positive but generated a lot of traffic in the restaurants… Wynn basically said it’s an “immaterial” loss from an EBITDA standpoint. Looking to fill the spot now
    • Entertainment doesn’t move the needle anymore in Vegas, but rather F&B, hotel, service… explaining the 750-800MM of nightclub revenues the city makes – kind of “replaced” the “show” business
  • Are they capacity constrained at Wynn Macau?
    • No, feel like they are opening Encore at the right time
  • What else drove margins in Macau? 
    • The $15MM of quarterly run rate cost cuts, no difference between direct vs junket business

 


RESTAURANT INDUSTRY – COMMODITY UPDATE

The restaurant industry continues to benefit from significantly lower commodity prices versus last year.  Chicken is the only commodity that we track that is relatively flat year over year; though the prices paid by some restaurant companies are higher year-over-year. 

Earlier this week, BWLD noted that the anticipated average price per pound of fresh chicken wings for July and August is $1.67 versus $1.17 for the third quarter last year.   If the third quarter averages $1.67 per pound, the company expects to see a 50 bps increase in COGS versus last year (similar to the YOY impact in 2Q).

RESTAURANT INDUSTRY – COMMODITY UPDATE - bwld chicken

Over the last two weeks, cheese prices have moved up 12%.  It should be noted that even after this significant move, cheese prices are -42% YOY quarter to date versus -40% in 1H09.  Cheese prices are still favorable on a YOY basis but are worth watching, given the big move.

On the 2Q CAKE earnings call, management commented that COGS benefited by a good 50-plus bps from lower commodity costs, largely non-contracted items, such as cheese and dairy.  Looking to 2H09, CAKE will likely benefit from the same trends, but that is obviously going to be dependent on what commodity costs do.

RESTAURANT INDUSTRY – COMMODITY UPDATE - commpx


Early Look

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US Jobs: When Bad Is Good!

Since the US Dollar is the most dominant macro factor affecting US Dollar denominated stock and commodity prices, you can read this morning’s weekly jobs report as bad being good.

When is bad good? Well, when initial claims come in at 584,000 versus last week’s 559,000 AND climbs above the 4-week moving average (see chart), AND the stock market rips higher… I call that a bad jobs number being good.

Obviously a lot of people still look at the US stock market in a vacuum and those people won’t agree with my conclusion. That’s fine. That’s what makes a market. The New Reality of a country that devalues remains: what’s bad for the US Dollar is good for assets priced in dollars.

The US Dollar is down on the day – stocks and commodities are up. The longer Bernanke can justify this ridiculous “emergency Great Depression” policy of ZERO interest rates with negative (and lagging) economic data, the longer this REFLATION game carries on…

This won’t end well. But neither has this week for the short sellers of everything rear-view mirror.

KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

US Jobs: When Bad Is Good! - a1


Eye on the Baltic Dry Index

“I have no friends and no enemies - only competitors.”

          -Aristotle Onassis

We’ve had our eyes on the Baltic Dry Index, which has had a massive rally year-to-date and over the last three months.  The BDI is one of the best proxies for global demand as it signals the increase in demand for cargo containers.  As shippers require more containers, simple supply and demand dictates that the price for those containers will commensurately increase.  The quote from the now deceased shipping magnate, Aristotle Onassis, explains this relationship directly.  Shipping is a highly competitive industry, so rates for shipping are very sensitive to increases and decreases in economic activity. 

The Baltic Dry Index, in particular, is very relevant.  As was recently written in Slate, “because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.”  Further, “because it provides an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea, it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade -- devoid of political and other agenda concerns."

The important takeaway form the move we have seen in the BDI year-to-date (outlined in the chart below), which has also been echoed by the prices of copper and related commodities, is that this economic resurgence we are seeing in the prices of commodities globally is not illusory. There has been a real and sustainable pickup in demand for basic industrial inputs on a global basis.  China has obviously been a key driver of the pickup in shipping rates, as Andrew Barber discussed in detail in his recent China Black Book.  Specifically, China has imported an estimated 297 million tons of iron ore in the first half of 2009.

While the price move of the index verifies what we already know, the question remains, what is the BDI telling us about the future?  We are seeing certain rates decline over the last week, which may suggest that we are seeing a bit of a summer slowdown.  Some strategists are suggesting that we will see a serious decline in economic activity from China in the upcoming quarters.  We currently do not hold this view, but will be watching the BDI as an indicator for continued demand from China for materials needed to continue its furious infrastructure building activity.

Daryl G. Jones

Managing Director

Eye on the Baltic Dry Index - a1


BYD: A DIFFERENT KIND OF TAX BITE

Hawaii just eliminated the ability for residents to offset gambling winnings with their losses. Fair or not, BYD’s downtown properties may take a small hit.

 

A state law eliminating the gambling loss deduction was signed into law retroactive to January 1st.  Similar to every other state and the federal government, Hawaiian tax law had allowed taxpayers to deduct gambling losses on their tax return up to the amount of gambling winnings.  Now, Hawaiians will be taxed on gross winnings.  So if Governor Linda Lingle played five hands at BYD’s Freemont Hotel & Casino and won 4 straight hands of $25, but bet the entire $100 winnings on the fifth hand and lost, she would still owe state taxes on $100 of income. 

Practically, the legislation will have little impact on the gambling tendencies of most Hawaiian visitors to Las Vegas.  With the exception of politicians – we know they are all honest – most gamblers are not reporting their gambling activity any way. 

BYD generates a little over 10% of its property EBITDA from its downtown properties.  We estimate that roughly half of the downtown EBITDA is generated from Hawaiian visitors.  State documents indicate that only $5 million of gambling losses were deducted from individual tax returns last year so we are not exactly talking about huge dollars here.  However, don’t be surprised to see a little weakness downtown in what has been a surprisingly strong market for BYD.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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