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Takeaway: Everything that matters in macro happens on the margin.

Editor's note: This research excerpt from CEO Keith McCullough was originally written before this morning's market open. For more information on how you can subscribe to Hedgeye please click here.

Did the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Go Over the Waterfall?  - niag1

So, did the 10-year US Treasury Yield just go over the waterfall of interconnected risk?

After one of the more epic 2 hour moves I’ve ever seen for the 10-year yield (between 8:30-10:30am on Friday), my long-term TAIL risk line of 2.60% broke (2.58% this morning).

Did the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Go Over the Waterfall?  - 05.05.14 10 year yield post nfp

Gold is breaking out again and European stocks don’t like it inasmuch as high multiple US Growth Stocks won’t.

After frustrating people who missed the rip higher to $1380 in early March, Gold has been consolidating and finally broke out above my immediate-term TRADE momentum line of $1292 on Friday.

There is 0% coincidence in that after the 10-year yield gave it direction. Gold loves falling bond yields.

Did the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Go Over the Waterfall?  - 05.05.14 UST vs. Gold