LEISURE LETTER (05/05/2014)



Tuesday, May 6

• RHP Q1 earnings – 10am , Passcode: 25122491

• SHO Q1 earnings – 12pm

• TRIP Q1 earnings – 4:30pm

• DIS FQ2 earnings – 5pm , Passcode: 36995300


Wednesday, May 7

• STAY Q1  – 830am

• STN Q1 – 4pm

• CZR Q1 – 5pm , Passcode: 20337702


Thursday, May 8

• PCLN Q1 – 730am

• MPEL Q1 – 830am , Passcode: MPEL

• CAR Q1 – 830am , Passcode Avis Budget

• BEE Q1 – 10am , Passcode: 10895989

• HOT – 10:10am presenting at Baird's 2014 Growth Stock Conf

• SGMS Q1 – 430pm , Password: SGMS


Friday, May 9

• HLT Q1 earnings – 10am , Passcode: 25981567

• AHT Q1 earnings – 11am


LVS - announced that it intends to keep Sands Bethworks, which was rumored to be for sale $1 billion.  Additionally, the Company announced it will continue to invest in several property level projects.  Finally, the Company appointed Mark Juliano as president of Sands Beth.  Juliano previously ran Marina Bay Sands following the departure of Tom Arasi, who departed in February 2011.

TAKEAWAY:  A strong talent transfer from MBS to Bethworks.  We wonder who will back fill Juliano's vacate MBS role? 


WYNN - (Reuters) A Nevada judge ruled that a civil suit between Wynn Resorts and Kazuo Okada could continue and rejected the U.S. government's request to postpone it for another six months to conceal the identity of witnesses in a criminal investigation into Okada's business in the Philippines

TAKEAWAY:  The saga continues...


Genting Singapore (G13) - announced it "organized a dedicated project team"

as it relates to a potential new integrated resort development in Japan.  Genting Singapore noted Japan may pass the casino bill in the Lower House by the end of the month.

TAKEAWAY:  This fits with our expectation for the Casino Introduction Bill to be vetted in the days following the Japanese Gaming Congress (see our conf notes for more details).


Iao Kun Group - Junket Iao Kun Group Holding Company Limited announced unaudited Rolling Chip Turnover for April at US$1.72 bn, up 17% YoY.  Win rate was 1.90%.

TAKEAWAY:  A very low hold % at this junket could've contributed to lower than normal hold for the market in early April.


SGMS - announced it signed an amendment to its contract with Loteria Nacional de Beneficencia of Panama to provide the country’s first online lottery game, Pega 3.  Created by Scientific Games, Pega 3 is scheduled to launch in June 2014 as a standard Pick 3 game.


NCLH - (Cruise Critic) the Norwegian Breakaway was directionless for several hours on Sunday in the Hudson River after one if its side thrusters malfunctioned and left the ship  wallowing in the Hudson from 7:45 a.m. until it docked at Pier 88 at 10 a.m.  Prior to the breakdown, NCL had planned to celebrate the ship's one year anniversary.  The Breakaway was scheduled to depart at 5 p.m. for a cruise to Bermuda.


NCL spokeswoman AnneMarie Mathews said there was no real propulsion problem. Only a "small, technical maintenance item on one of the two azipods."  "We were closely monitoring the currents in the river and being very cautious. We don't expect it to have any affect on the next sailing," she said.

TAKEAWAY:  Yet another media black-eye for the cruise industry. 


Macau April Market Share - according to LUSA, Macau's April GGR market shares were:

SJM 23.4%

LVS 22.9%

GALAXY 20.0%

MPEL 13.0%

WYNN 11.0%

MGM 9.7%

TAKEAWAY:  Wynn Macau had the best month in terms of share relative to recent trend and Galaxy the worst.  The others were generally in line with their 3 month moving average.


Macau Visitation Scrutinized - During 2013, approximately 2.64 million Chinese visitors entered Macau from the mainland using visas for overseas journeys. But little over 20%of them exited Macau. The Macau Government suspects many of the mainland visitors used transit visa to Macau as a means of avoiding the regular IVS entry permit which limits frequency of visitation. 

TAKEAWAY:  We are hearing the Macau government will study terms of restricting the stay period that mainland visitors can enjoy when transiting Macau - the related restriction measure may be put
forward in July.


Macau May Day March - This year’s Labor Day march demonstrated a wider variety of concerns and larger participation of casino workers. While gaming industry employees united to urge for a full smoking ban in casinos, youth groups appealed for a reshaping of the living space for residents.  Additionally, an unprecedented motorcade of 31 cars and nine motorcycles was organized by four casino workers groups under the Macau Federation of Trade Unions (FOAM). Departing from Taipa,they eventually handed in a petition letter to the Legislative Assembly against the importation of foreign labor, while demanding a fair promotion system.

TAKEAWAY:  The locals are getting restless as YoY growth in GGR strongly outpaces casino wages. 


Macau Airlift - Macau International Airport handled 10% more passengers during April 2014 versus the prior year. The airport welcomed about 450,000 passengers last month, versus nearly 409,000 in the same month of the previous year. 

TAKEAWAY:  Positive for the premium mass and VIP segments. 


Macau Hotel Construction - There are a total of 18 hotels currently being constructed in Macau, with an additional 25 development projects being appraised. All 43 projects together could mean up to 25,600 new hotel and guestrooms. Currently under construction are 18 hotels encompassing 9,800 guestrooms. Ten of the properties are being built on the Macau side and will offer about 1,000 guestrooms altogether; five are being built in Cotai and could offer as many as 7,500 guestrooms, while two are under construction in Taipa and will offer 1,000 rooms. A hotel is also being built in Coloane, which will offer up to 200 rooms. 

TAKEAWAY:  We hope supply creates demand...


Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Sioux City - speculation regarding the opening date is increased as Warner Gaming announces concert bookings for the new, yet to open property.  Thus far the earliest concert is scheduled for August 7th, followed by Quiet Riot on August 15, and the Goo Goo Dolls and Daughtry on Aug 30.

TAKEAWAY:  Given the increasingly pugnacious comments from PENN regarding Argosy Sioux City, the last weeks of July and first weeks of August will be a media frenzy.  


Atlantic City - Mayor Don Guardian proposed a large outdoor stage to help increase visitation to Atlantic City.   Thus far, two Atlantic City beach concerts are planned – the first in July 31 featuring Blake Shelton.  A second concert is planned for Sunday, August 3 for a yet unnamed headliner.

TAKEAWAY:  First, we recall concerts being a foundational pillar of The Revel's differentiated programming as well as Showboat's House of Blues, so how is this different - except for the potential to become a drunken beach brawl...Second, we go out with an early call and our $$ is on The Boss.


Airbnb - (Reuters) Buffett endorses Airbnb to combat hefty Omaha hotel prices

Buffett said it is understandable that rates might rise, given that Berkshire's annual meeting now attracts some 38,000 shareholders - roughly two-thirds from outside the area - for what is Omaha's largest annual tourism event other than the baseball College World Series.  "Since we want to increase the demand ... that's why we have encouraged Airbnb to come in," he said.


Critics say Airbnb takes away business from legitimate hoteliers, and deprives municipalities of tax revenue.  New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman last month said he is examining whether the service violates state laws on subletting.

TAKEAWAY:  We don't see it as a threat to the hotel companies.


Alaska cruising - Port Metro Vancouver’s 2014 Alaska cruise season looks to be on par with a strong 2013.  Some 812,000 passengers on 243 calls by 29 ships are forecast. This compares to 812,398 passengers on 235 calls by 29 ships last year, a 22% increase in passengers over 2012.

TAKEAWAY:  This data point suggests a slight decline in Alaska demand for 2014.


China Economy - HSBC China April manufacturing PMI 48.1 vs 48.3 flash, 48.0 in March - new orders and new export orders decrease.

TAKEAWAY:  China macro continues to signal weakness


Las Vegas Housing Recovery - recently developers laid out plans to build the long-delayed, bankruptcy-plagued Park Highlands community, with 15,000 homes built in two phases starting by early 2015. The 2,700 acre project near Aliante Parkway and the 215 Beltway is expected to cost $3.2 billion over 15 years of construction. 

TAKEAWAY:  While an optimistic plan, recent data indicate Southern Nevada new home sales were down 22% YoY during Q1 2014, with about 1,300 home sold.  Also, approximately 40% of all Las Vegas home owners remain underwater. 


Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive. 

TAKEAWAY:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.


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