Consensus estimates, management guidance and commentary, and questions for management in preparation for the earnings release/call tomorrow.
1Q14 CONSENSUS ESTIMATES
• Total revenues: $1,059 million
o Owned & Leased Hotels: $536 million
o Other Revs from Managed Hotels: $417 million
o Managed & Franchised Fees: $86 million
• Adjusted EBITDA: $153 million
• EPS: $0.12/share
- No specific guidance
- Adjusted SG&A of approx $325 million.
- Capital expenditures of approx $350 million, including about $175 million for investment in new properties.
- The Company intends to continue a strong level of investment spending including: acquisitions, equity investments in joint ventures, debt investments, contract acquisition costs or other investments.
- D&A of approx $375 million.
- Interest expense of approx $80 million.
- Open approximately 40 hotels
QUESTIONS FOR MANAGEMENT
- Views on assets sales given strength in transaction market as well as hotel REIT share performance - one off vs portfolio transactions
- Where are inflation pressures negatively impacting margins?
- ROI on renovations from last 2 years?
- Discuss investment spending plans for the remainder of 2014.
- Recent commentary from Delta Air Lines indicated strong price taking in April, May and June of this year, how does that compare with what the company is seeing for advance bookings?
- What is your goal in terms of fees vs owned EBITDA?
- What is the right leverage? Current thoughts on share repurchases?
- Rate vs occupancy gains this year and where are we in the cycle?
RECENT MANAGEMENT COMMENTARY
- the pace heading into 2014 has remained steady, up in the low-single-digit range.
- trends and the profile are improving.
- Demand remains relatively robust
- total production and activity has been quite positive and has been positive now for the last several quarters running
- increased demand in corporate and association business, we see healthy levels of businesses into 2015 and 2016
- in-the-quarter-for-the-quarter bookings have been a bit more volatile quarter-over-quarter if you look back over the last four quarters, but overall production levels will remain high
- not seeing a shortening of booking curve in a definitive way
- group is approximately 40% to 45% of our U.S. managed full service room revenue
- group on a Worldwide basis is in the high 30% for full service hotels
- 70% to 75% of group business is in the books going into the year, and that's about where we are entering 2014
- the in-the-quarter-for-the-quarter business it's been consistently positive over the last few quarters
- flow through on the mix of RevPAR that is mostly rate would be north of 60%
- China RevPAR growth in the 2014 could be in the single-digit percentage range based on stabilization and an easier comparable prior-year results.
Preferred Acquisition Markets
- focused and actively looking gateway city opportunities in Europe, in the U.S., and Miami and Los Angles remain high priorities
Park Hyatt New York
- Commitment to purchase the hotel upon completion at a fixed price of $375 million
- 210 keys, so about $1.8 million a key
- Hyatt is a two-thirds joint venture partner in the JV that has a commitment to buy the hotel
- No depreciation included in 2014 outlook
- don't expect to consolidate this hotel in 2014 financial results
- Scheduled opening is targeted for mid-year
- Seeking property-level debt probably in the range of 50% of the total purchase price.
Modeling (EBITDA) Adjustments
- the acquisition in Orlando, will be a net $45 million of incremental
- Playa will be an incremental about $10 million
- San Antonio would be in the $15 million range as a positive
- deduct some of the sales for 2013, particularly the full service sales, and that would be in the $20 million range
Acquisitions & Dispositions
Closed on the previously announced purchase and sale of 10 Hyatt, Hyatt Place and Hyatt House hotels, totaling 1,560 rooms to RLJ Lodging Trust for approx $313 million. Hyatt affiliates will manage the hotels under new management agreements.
- Hyatt Regency Phuket, 199 rooms
- Hyatt Place Houston/The Woodlands, 146 rooms
- Hyatt Place Fredericksburg-Mary Washington, 93 rooms
- Hyatt Place Amsterdam Airport, 330 rooms
- Hyatt Place Lincoln/Downtown, 111 rooms
- Hyatt Place Manati/Puerto Rico, 104 rooms
- On January 6, 2014, the Company entered into a second amended and restated credit agreement with a syndicate of lenders that provides for a $1.5 billion senior unsecured revolving credit facility that matures in January 2019. This restates its existing $1.5 billion facility which had been scheduled to mature in September 2016
- From January 1 through February 11, 2014, the Company repurchased 329,823 shares of common stock at a weighted average price of $48.79 per share, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $16 million
- As of February 11, 2014, the Company had approximately $173 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization