THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 24, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 54 points or 2.10% downside to 1836 and 0.78% upside to 1890.                                                     

                                                                          

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.26 from 2.26
  • VIX closed at 13.27 1 day percent change of 0.61%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, March, est. 2% (prior 2.2%)        
  • Durables Ex Transportation, March, est. 0.6% (prior 0.2%, revised 0.1%)
  • Capital Goods Orders Non-def Ex-Aircraft, March, est. 1.5% (prior -1.3%, revised -1.4%)               
  • Capital Goods Shipments Non-def Ex-Aircraft, March, est. 1% (prior 0.5%, revised 0.6%)               
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, April 19, est. 315k (prior 304k)       
  • Continuing Claims, April 12, est. 2.745m (prior 2.739m)  
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, April 20 (prior -29.1)     
  • 10am: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, April, est. 8 (prior 10)       
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates        
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change                     

GOVERNMENT:               

    • House, Senate out of session on recess
    • Obama in Japan, meets with Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, holds press conf., attends state dinner, speaks at youth event   
    • 8:45am: Export-Import Bank holds annual conf., President Fred Hochberg delivers opening remarks       
    • 12pm: Justice Samuel Alito speaks at Food and Drug Law Institute conference   
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: NYT Senate Poll; Tea Party Endorsements              

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • GE said to be in talks to buy Alstom for $13b       
  • Google to Netflix pay-for-access deals said to get FCC review    
  • Apple stock split removes obstacle to inclusion in Dow avg          
  • German business confidence unexpectedly rises in growth sign               
  • Obama says U.S. ready to move on additional Russia sanctions  
  • Nokia to exclude India plant from Microsoft deal on tax issues  
  • E-cigarettes to fall under FDA as U.S. seeks to tame trend           
  • Forbes sale said to founder with Axel Springer not bidding          
  • Gartner sees 12% rise in semiconductor cap equipment spending            
  • Spain auctions 10-yr bonds at 3.059%, lowest yield on record     
  • Williams Opal gas explosion cuts pipe flows as town evacuated         

AM EARNS:        

    • 3M (MMM) 7:30am, $1.80          
    • Aetna (AET) 6am, $1.55 - Preview            
    • Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) 6:30am, $1.26  
    • Altria Group (MO) 6:58am, $0.57 - Preview         
    • AmerisourceBergen (ABC) 6:15am, $1.00  - Preview        
    • Avnet (AVT) 8am, $1.08               
    • BankUnited (BKU) 7:30am, $0.45             
    • Bemis (BMS) 7am, $0.57              
    • Brunswick (BC) 7:39am, $0.60    
    • Cameron International (CAM) 7:30am, $0.72 - Preview  
    • Caterpillar (CAT) 7:30am, $1.23 - Preview             
    • Celgene (CELG) 7:30am, $1.65 - Preview               
    • CMS Energy (CMS) 7:30am, $0.72            
    • Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) 7:30am, $0.44          
    • Colfax (CFX) 6:01am, $0.45          
    • Delphi Automotive (DLPH) 7am, $1.09   
    • Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6am, $0.65 - Preview     
    • Domtar (UFS) 7:30am, $1.67       
    • DR Horton (DHI) 6am, $0.34 - Preview   
    • Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN) 6am, $0.36           
    • Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) 6:30am, $0.71 - Preview            
    • Entergy (ETR) 7am, $2.29             
    • EQT (EQT) 7am, $0.89    
    • First Niagara Financial Group (FNFG) 7:15am, $0.17         
    • Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) 8am, $0.42 - Preview
    • General Motors Co (GM) 7:30am, $0.04 - Preview           
    • GrafTech International (GTI) 7:01am, ($0.02)      
    • Graphic Packaging Holding  (GPK) 7:30am, $0.13               
    • Helmerich & Payne (HP) 6am, $1.48        
    • Hershey  (HSY) 6:58am, $1.14    
    • JetBlue Airways (JBLU) 7:30am, $0.07 - Preview
    • KKR & Co LP (KKR) 8am, $0.51    
    • Lorillard (LO) 7am, $0.72               
    • Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN) 7:30am, $0.91   
    • NASDAQ OMX Group (NDAQ) 7am, $0.71            
    • New York Times (NYT) 8:30am, $0.03     
    • Nielsen Holdings NV (NLSN) 7am  , $0.41              
    • Nucor (NUE) 9am, $0.38               
    • Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) 6am, $0.24              
    • Peabody Energy (BTU) 8am, $0.01 - Preview      
    • Potash  (POT CN) 6am, $0.35 - Preview 
    • PulteGroup (PHM) 6:30am, $0.20 - Preview        
    • Quest Diagnostics (DGX) 7am, $0.88 - Preview   
    • Raytheon (RTN) 7am, $1.77        
    • Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) 8:50am, $1.23  
    • Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) 8:31am, $0.27      
    • SCANA (SCG) 7:30am, $1.15       
    • Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) 7am, $1.03
    • Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) 7am, $0.02       
    • Sonus Networks (SONS) 7am, ($0.01)    
    • Southwest Airlines (LUV) 6:35am, $0.17 - Preview           
    • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) 6am, $0.96             
    • Starwood Hotels (HOT) 6am, $0.56          
    • T. Rowe Price (TROW) 7:29am, $1.04      
    • Time Warner Cable (TWC) 6am, $1.67 - Preview
    • Timken (TKR) 7:30am, $0.81       
    • Under Armour (UA) 7am, $0.05 - Preview            
    • United Continental (UAL) 7:30am, ($1.36)            
    • United Parcel Service (UPS) 7:45am, $1.08 - Preview      
    • USG (USG) 8:30am, $0.19            
    • Valley National Bancorp (VLY) 7am, $0.14             
    • Verizon Communications (VZ) 7:30am, $0.87 - Preview  
    • Waste Management (WM) 7:30am, $0.45            
    • Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) 6:29am, $0.75        
    • Yandex NV (YNDX) 6am, $8.77  
    • Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) 7am, $1.47               

PM EARNS:        

    • Altera (ALTR) 4:15pm, $0.32       
    • Amazon.com (AMZN) 4pm, $0.23            
    • Baidu (BIDU) 4:30pm, $6.24        
    • Barracuda Networks (CUDA) post-mkt , $0.01    
    • Broadcom (BRCM) 4:05pm, $0.46             
    • Cerner (CERN) 4:01pm, $0.37 - Preview
    • Chubb (CB) 4:03pm, $1.56           
    • Cincinnati Financial (CINF) 4:05pm, $0.54              
    • Cirrus Logic (CRUS) 4pm, $0.32  
    • Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) 4:22pm, ($0.23)   
    • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) 4pm, ($0.14)   
    • Eastman Chemical Co (EMN) 4:36pm, $1.59         
    • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) 4:01pm, $0.69 - Preview        
    • Freescale Semiconductor (FSL) 4:05pm, $0.25    
    • KLA-Tencor (KLAC) 4:15pm, $1.11            
    • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) 4:22pm, $0.94      
    • Leggett & Platt (LEG) 4:05pm, $0.38        
    • Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) 4pm, $0.39               
    • Microsoft (MSFT) 4:01pm, $0.63 - Preview          
    • Newmont Mining (NEM) post-mkt , $0.19 - Preview       
    • Noble Energy (NBL) 5pm, $0.75
    • Olin (OLN) 5pm, $0.34   
    • Pandora Media (P) 4:01pm, ($0.14)         
    • PerkinElmer (PKI) 4:05pm, $0.44              
    • Principal Financial Group (PFG) 4pm, $0.92          
    • Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) 4pm, $0.19   
    • Republic Services (RSG) 4:05pm, $0.44  
    • Starbucks (SBUX) 4:03pm, $0.56 - Preview           
    • Stericycle (SRCL) 4:01pm, $0.99 
    • SunPower (SPWR) 4:05pm, $0.32             
    • Superior Energy Services (SPN) 4:05pm, $0.21   
    • Swift Transportation Co (SWFT) 4:01pm, $0.12   
    • Synaptics (SYNA) 4:05pm, $0.57
    • Universal Health Services (UHS) 5pm, $1.22        
    • Validus Holdings (VR) 4:15pm, $1.56       
    • VeriSign (VRSN) 4:05pm, $0.63  
    • Visa (V) 4:05pm, $2.18  
    • Weatherford International (WFT) 4:40pm, $0.11              

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Goldman Sets Out Case for Commodity Holdings as Rivals Cut Back
  • WTI Trades Near Two-Week Low as Stockpiles Climb; Brent Steady
  • Coffee’s Prayers for Rain Met With Threat of Deluge: Commodities
  • Banks Reducing Commodity Trading Seen Ending Link to Equities
  • LME to Start Clearing Collateral in Yuan as Asia’s Power Rises
  • Copper Touches Three-Week High as Growth Rebound May Spur Demand
  • Gold Trades Near 10-Week Low as U.S. Data Weighed With Ukraine
  • Arabica Coffee Drops as Rain Heads for Brazil; Sugar Also Falls
  • Rebar in Shanghai Rises to 1-Wk High on Demand Pickup, Inventory
  • U.K. Shale Could Spark $55 Billion in Investment, E&Y Says
  • Marubeni Says China May Have Detained Three Grains Unit Staff
  • Deadly Illegal Mining Booms Below South Africa’s City of Gold
  • Asia Energy Bull & Bear Pit China Reforms vs. OPEC: BI Outlook
  • Castoffs in Barrick Newmont Merger May Become $4 Billion Rival

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more