Mexican stocks have been surprisingly resilient in the past few months. However, yesterday, with the market -1.4%, we saw a negative divergence in Mexican trading and alarms went off in my macro models. I like shorting things when they are up, so I am waiting for an up day now, but the EWW (Mexico iShares etf) will be shorted using a 59.44 stop loss limit on the high side.
While Mexican export exposure to the US economy has come down from its 2001 peak of almost 90%, anything over 80% remains a massively relevant risk exposure to a country's GDP.
As slows in Q3, Mexico will.