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Takeaway: An analysis of the Current Population Survey is forecasting a rebound in births in the United States.

Are US Births Beginning a Multi-Year Rebound? - baby hospital watch this  007

Using the Current Population Survey (CPS), reported monthly by the US Census Bureau, we've derived a curve for US Births that closely approximates data reported by the US Census Bureau on a significant lag. 

The latest data for the CPS is for March 2014. The CPS analysis shows that births accelerated in Q4 2013, despite the tough year over year compare. This result was apparent in relevant company reports, and appears to have continued in Q1 2014 at a similar pace.

Are US Births Beginning a Multi-Year Rebound? - birth projection

As it relates to HCA (one of the stocks we’re currently recommending in Investing Ideas), inpatient admissions should see a tailwind, given 25% of Hospital Industry admissions are maternity related.

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Editor's Note: This is an excerpt of a research note that was originally sent to subscribers on April 22, 2014 by Hedgeye Healthcare sector head Tom Tobin. Follow Tom on Twitter @HedgeyeHC.