Chain Store Sales: Not Looking Good (and No Excuses Left)

Takeaway: Chain stores got no lift from Easter.

Chain Store Sales: Not Looking Good (and No Excuses Left) - emptymall

ICSC - Chain Store Sales Index

The latest International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-Goldman Sachs weekly index (a measure of nominal same-store or comparable-store sales excluding restaurant and vehicle demand) has just been released. It doesn’t look good. The weekly index statistically represents industry sales and is not just a sum of sales for a handful of retailers.

TAKEAWAY FROM MCGOUGH:

There’s been no lift from the Easter shift with numbers flat year-over-year. If we look at the trailing 4-week average, numbers were down 40 basis points against easy compares.

 

With no excuses left in the chamber, it's shaping up to be a tough earnings season for a whole host of retailers.


This latest number dovetails with our #1 Q2 Macro Theme:

  • #ConsumerSlowing: The cyclical increase in consumer spending growth from the 2009 lows is under pressure. Rising food prices and a stagnating USD continue to squeeze average Americans on the margin. Given the potential for further USD depreciation and a continuation of global commodity inflation as a real macro risk, we think U.S. consumption growth will slow as it bumps up against difficult compares heading into 2Q and beyond.

Chain Store Sales: Not Looking Good (and No Excuses Left) - chart1 4 22

 

Editor's Note: This is a research excerpt from Hedgeye Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. Follow McGough on Twitter @HedgeyeRetail

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