Monday Mashup: CMG, WEN and More

The table below lists our current Investment Ideas as well as our Watch List – a list of potential ideas that we are in the process of evaluating.  We intend to update this table regularly and will provide detail on any material changes.

 

Monday Mashup: CMG, WEN and More - 4 21 2014 9 10 59 AM

 

EAT – We're pulling Brinker from our long list.  The stock has acted well for us over the past year, but the departure of CFO Guy Constant, declining traffic trends and rising food costs are beginning to concern us. 

 

MCD – We’re relegating McDonald’s to the short watch list.  We removed it from our Best Ideas list back in mid-February amid concerns of a potential financial engineering event.  It could be through refranchising or a leverage event, we’re not quite sure, but we don’t want to be in the way.  We still believe the McDonald’s business is in secular decline, but there are several reasons, including easy comparisons and an attractive dividend, that give us reason to believe the stock has support.

 

BWLD – We’re relegating Buffalo Wild Wings to the short watch list.  While we believe the stock is fully valued, we see very few short-term catalysts that suggest near-term downside.  Declining new unit sales performance, ROIIC, and CFFO/Net Income are three metrics that make us bearish, but we believe the company has enough near-term drivers to support the stock.

Recent Notes

04/14/14  Monday Mashup: DRI Comes Under Fire

04/14/14  The Casual Dining Dilemma

04/15/14  Investment Ideas: Longs

04/16/14  Investment Ideas: Shorts

04/18/14  CMG: Building Market Share

Events This Week

04/22/14  MCD earnings call 11:00am EST

04/23/14  YUM earnings call 9:15am EST

04/23/14  EAT earnings call 10:00am EST

04/23/14  CAKE earnings call 5:00pm EST

04/24/14  DNKN earnings call 8:00am EST

04/24/14  DAVE earnings call 11:00am EST

04/24/14  SBUX earnings call 5:00pm EST

Chart of the Day

WEN trades at a discount to BKW and YUM and in-line with a market-saturated MCD despite having significantly more runway to improve revenues, margins and returns.  Despite strong performance in 2013, Wendy’s continues to be an out of favor name giving value-oriented investors a compelling opportunity.  We expect to see meaningful multiple expansion as Wendy’s continues to reimage its restaurants, rebalance its franchise mix and generate stronger returns.

 

Monday Mashup: CMG, WEN and More - 2

Recent News Flow

Monday, April 14

  • PLKI announced the resignation of CFO Melville Hope, who plans to depart in May to pursue opportunities.  The company has begun a search for his successor.    

Tuesday, April 15

  • SBUX announced the relocation of its European headquarters from the Netherlands to the UK
  • SONC upgraded to buy at Sterne Agee with a $25 PT

Wednesday, April 16

  • TAST announced it will hold a secondary stock offering to raise $60 million.  The proceeds are expected to be primarily used to accelerate the 20/20 restaurant reimage program and acquire franchised restaurants.  

Thursday, April 17

  • CMG reported a strong quarter with same-store sales up 13.4%, primarily driven by traffic.  Despite this, the company is seeing margin compression from rising food costs and announced plans to take mid-single digit price beginning at the end of 2Q14.  Chipotle continues to take market share in an increasingly competitive environment.

XLY Quantitative Setup

The XLY (+1.0%) underperformed the SPX (+1.7%) last week, as both casual dining and quick service stocks, in aggregate, underperformed the broader XLY benchmark.  From a quantitative setup, the sector remains bearish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.

 

Monday Mashup: CMG, WEN and More - 3 

Casual Dining Restaurants

Monday Mashup: CMG, WEN and More - 4

Monday Mashup: CMG, WEN and More - 5

Quick Service Restaurants

Monday Mashup: CMG, WEN and More - 6

Monday Mashup: CMG, WEN and More - 7

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst

 


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