Jobless Claims: Fourth Consecutive Week of Solid Numbers

Takeaway: Claims continue to fall at an impressive rate as a precursor to a tight labor market and wage inflation.

the streak

The labor market put in another good week, bringing the series to four consecutive weeks of solid data. While a modest deceleration from last week on a single week basis, the rolling trend continued to sequentially accelerate. 

 

Jobless Claims: Fourth Consecutive Week of Solid Numbers - ATS stock

 

The year-over-year change in non-seasonally adjusted initial claims came in at -11.6% vs the prior week's 15.9% improvement and the previous week's 7.1% improvement. That brought the 4-week moving average to -12.1%, as compared with -10.5% and -7.5% in the preceding two weeks. Remember, a more negative number is better as it reflects a faster rate of improvement. 

 

As we pointed out last week, the weather's turn, particularly in the Northeast, remains coincident with the turn in the claims data. Based on the numbers so far, it looks like the April job's report will come in quite strong.

The Data 

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims rose 4k to 304k from 300k week-over-week, as the prior week's number was revised up by 2k to 302k.

 

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were higher by 2k week-over-week. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -4.25k week-over-week to 312k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -12.1% lower year-over-year, which is a sequential improvement versus the previous week's year-over-year change of -10.5%

 

Jobless Claims: Fourth Consecutive Week of Solid Numbers - 1

 

Jobless Claims: Fourth Consecutive Week of Solid Numbers - 2

 

*   *   *   *   *   *   *

 

Editor's Note: This is an excerpt of a research note that was originally provided to subscribers on April 17, 2014 at 10:18 a.m. by Hedgeye’s Financials team Jonathan Casteleyn & Josh Steiner. Follow Jonathan and Josh on Twitter @HedgeyeJC and @HedgeyeFIG.

SUBSCRIBE TO HEDGEYE.


Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more