Jobless Claims: Fourth Consecutive Week of Solid Numbers

Takeaway: Claims continue to fall at an impressive rate as a precursor to a tight labor market and wage inflation.

the streak

The labor market put in another good week, bringing the series to four consecutive weeks of solid data. While a modest deceleration from last week on a single week basis, the rolling trend continued to sequentially accelerate. 

Jobless Claims: Fourth Consecutive Week of Solid Numbers - ATS stock

The year-over-year change in non-seasonally adjusted initial claims came in at -11.6% vs the prior week's 15.9% improvement and the previous week's 7.1% improvement. That brought the 4-week moving average to -12.1%, as compared with -10.5% and -7.5% in the preceding two weeks. Remember, a more negative number is better as it reflects a faster rate of improvement. 

As we pointed out last week, the weather's turn, particularly in the Northeast, remains coincident with the turn in the claims data. Based on the numbers so far, it looks like the April job's report will come in quite strong.

The Data 

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims rose 4k to 304k from 300k week-over-week, as the prior week's number was revised up by 2k to 302k.

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were higher by 2k week-over-week. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -4.25k week-over-week to 312k.

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -12.1% lower year-over-year, which is a sequential improvement versus the previous week's year-over-year change of -10.5%

Jobless Claims: Fourth Consecutive Week of Solid Numbers - 1

Jobless Claims: Fourth Consecutive Week of Solid Numbers - 2

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Editor's Note: This is an excerpt of a research note that was originally provided to subscribers on April 17, 2014 at 10:18 a.m. by Hedgeye’s Financials team Jonathan Casteleyn & Josh Steiner. Follow Jonathan and Josh on Twitter @HedgeyeJC and @HedgeyeFIG.

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