The price of crude oil has been volatile. WTI broke out above Hedgeye’s TREND line last week, and it was up again this morning to +6% year-to-date.
Our question was simple today: Do you see oil prices heading higher the next three months?
At the time of this post, the majority went to 67% saying YES and 33% voting NO.
Voters who said YES largely agreed that it had to do with two things: geopolitics and inflation.
- “Geopolitics [in terms of] mostly Russia holding the Ukraine hostage until the West backs down. If the EU doesn't back away from Ukraine, Russia will invade. This dance could escalate before there is relief.”
- “Inflation is accelerating. Oil is the liquid gold; therefore, it's accelerating as well.”
- “The combination of geopolitics and the upcoming summer driving season will lead to prices trending higher.”
- “Commodities have been ripping humanity a new one all year. If global central Keynesian drug overlords want the inflation, they will get it.”
Of the group who voted NO, one person explained, “I don't see consumer demand for gas as particularly high these days. All data points to people driving less, and that's a crucial point ahead of the summer driving season.” Another believed a drop in oil price is the United States’ best weapon against Russia.
This morning Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough noted that he gets a lot of questions specifically about oil because it was one of the few commodities not going up. But now, he said, “this move plus Natural Gas up +13% YTD isn’t good. It equals #ConsumerSlowing.”
SUBSCRIBE TO HEDGEYE.