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Someone's Smoking Some Keynesian Crack

Takeaway: There is no inflation. Just ask one of these unelected and unaccountable government guys.

No inflation for four years.

 

That’s what this Keynesian character from the Minnesota Fed (Narayana Kocherlakota) said earlier this week. I couldn’t make this up if I tried, but here’s his explanation:

 

"The low inflation in the United States tells us that resources are being wasted...I’ve said that the FOMC is undershooting its price stability objective and is expected to continue to do so. But we should all keep in mind that this outcome—and especially the forecast for continued undershooting—typically means that the FOMC is also underperforming on its other objective of promoting maximum employment."


In related news, our Q2 Macro Themes released to subscribers on Tuesday has the exact opposite view. Ping sales@hedgeye.com for more info.

 

Someone is smoking something here, and since I don’t do drugs, I don’t think it’s me. This guy is cheering on the very thing that is slowing real growth (#InflationAccelerating).

 

Simple equation: Fed Minutes  = Burn The Buck --> Commodity Inflation rips.

Someone's Smoking Some Keynesian Crack - FoodPrices02.18.2014

Take a look around this morning:

  • COMMODITIES: freshly squeezed YTD highs in commodity #InflationAccelerating (CRB Index +10.7% YTD)
  • COFFEE prices up 68% YTD
  • BEEF prices hit all-time record high in US
  • GOLD: ramps the whiners another new one (back to +10% YTD); Silver (which we're long in #RTA too) +2.5% this morning too

Your un-elected Fed says food prices are "non-core" to American life. Try telling that to average Americans in the grocery store. In other words, there is no inflation. Just ask one of these unelected and unaccountable government guys smoking Keynesian crack.


Retail Callouts (4/10): BBBY, PIR, RH, WSM, KER, LULU, TGT, WMT, LB, VNCE

Takeaway: RH/WSM vs BBBY/PIR tag team – no contest. KER looking for sports brands -- LULU? TGT and WMT battle over granola. LB/Vicy sheds outerwear.

COMPANY NEWS

 

BBBY and PIR Both Put Up Less-Than-Stellar Results. But there's an Important Theme.

 

Look at the SIGMA trajectory for both retailers. Sales down, inventories up, weak margins. But how come that is in such stark contrast to what we saw out of RH and WSM? Aside from better product, merchandising, and marketing, there's a structural factor as well.  BBBY generates only 4% of its sales online. PIR is only at 5%. That means when people don't want to leave their homes due to weather, sheer laziness, or whatever, BBBY and PIR are at a competitive disadvantage. RH and WSM, however, generate nearly half of their respective sales online.  They both have the ultimate channel hedge to complement their premium product offering. This quarter it made a difference.

 

BBBY may have printed earnings that are in line with prior guidance, but any way we slice it, this SIGMA trajectory looks horrendous. A 6% sales decline on a 5% inventory build is was out of character for BBBY.

 

Retail Callouts (4/10): BBBY, PIR, RH, WSM, KER, LULU, TGT, WMT, LB, VNCE - chart1 4 10

 

As bad as Bed Bath looks, Pier 1 looks even worse. Not enough sales, way too much inventory, and no margin to be found.

 

Retail Callouts (4/10): BBBY, PIR, RH, WSM, KER, LULU, TGT, WMT, LB, VNCE - chart3 4 10

 

KER - Gucci Owner Kering to Consider Buying Sports Brands

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-10/gucci-owner-kering-to-consider-buying-sports-brands.html)

 

  • "...Kering SA will consider acquiring sports and lifestyle brands in three years as it assesses the performance of the Puma label, Chief Executive Officer Francois-Henri Pinault said."
  • "Any deal will hinge on Kering’s ability to reverse the fortunes of Puma...which has been undertaking a reorganization since 2009, he said in an interview in Hainan, China. Pinault, who’s also Kering’s chairman, said he’s 'convinced' the Paris-based company should have a sports-and lifestyle-oriented business."

 

Takeaway: The list of premium sports brands that Kering can buy is actually quite small. But there's one that is a) premium, b) global, c) in need of major help, and d) is run by a fellow Frenchman.  In case you have not guessed already, that's Lululemon.

 

WMT and TGT Fight Over Granola

 

Takeaway: Wal-Mart offering organics at a 25%+ discount is a daunting development for incumbent organic brands at WMT. But what's more interesting is that TGT came out with a simultaneous announcement that it will dramatically up its organic product -- but it is not bringing price into the equation. Ultimately, will people want a better brand selection at Target, or a focused selection with deep discounts at WMT? Our sense is that Wal-Mart will win this one. But the wild card remains how each company conveys the value proposition to consumers.

 

WMT - Walmart to Offer Organic Line of Food at Discount Prices

(http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/10/business/walmart-to-offer-organic-line-of-food-at-cut-rate-prices.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0)

 

  • "Walmart plans to announce on Thursday that it is putting its muscle behind Wild Oats organic products, offering the label at prices that will undercut brand-name organic competitors by at least 25 percent."
  • "For now, Walmart will carry the Wild Oats label, which is owned by the Yucaipa Companies, a private investment firm, only in its pantry section, with items like tomato paste, chicken broth and cinnamon applesauce cup. Over 90 percent of its offerings at Walmart will be organic…"
  • "Instead of hitting the entire national market at once, Walmart will first introduce Wild Oats at 2,000 stores in the coming months, only half of its national footprint, and then roll it out to the rest of the country. Mr. Sinclair said that concerns about supply kept the retailer from introducing the brand in all its stores at once."

 

TGT - Target Ups Organic Offering

(http://www.wwd.com/retail-news/mass-off-price/target-ups-organic-offering-7635834)

 

  • "The mass retailer is expanding its selection of natural, organic and sustainable brands under the 'Made to Matter' umbrella."
  • "The 'Made to Matter — Handpicked by Target' collection is comprised of 17 leading natural, organic and sustainable brands. Target is making the products more accessible to consumers. Merchandise will be available throughout the store, both in the products’ usual aisles and as part of displays for the collection. Select products also will be available on target.com and Target’s mobile app."
  • "'Made to Matter' brands include Annie’s Homegrown, Burt’s Bees, Chobani, Clif Bar & Co., Ella’s Kitchen, Evol, Horizon Organic, Hyland’s, Kashi, Method, Plum Organics, Seventh Generation, SheaMoisture, Target’s Simply Balanced, Vita Coco, Yes To and Zarbee’s Naturals. 'The Made to Matter' collection includes all products now offered at Target by the participating brands and at least one new exclusive item from each brand."

 

LB - Victoria's Secret Trims Apparel Collections

(http://www.wwd.com/markets-news/intimates-activewear/victorias-secret-trims-apparel-collections-7636621)

 

  • "WWD has learned that Victoria’s Secret will be narrowing its apparel offering by dropping most of its wovens, outerwear, denim and some of the dress offering as well. Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of revenues will be shed, with one apparel source estimating anywhere between $500 million and $750 million of volume."
  • "Changes to the Victoria’s Secret collection will begin being evident right away but most noticeably by next fall. The decision to cut back, revealed internally at L Brands headquarters in Columbus, Ohio, on Tuesday, impacts Victoria’s Secret Direct. It does not affect the Victoria’s Secret stores, which stick to the core offerings. It also does not affect Pink…"

 

Takeaway: No argument here. The reality is that if you ask a hundred consumers what Victoria's Secret does best, not a single one will say 'denim'. The one product extension that makes sense to us is Yoga, where it has had very good success (which will continue).

 

VNCE - Vince Unveiling Kids' Collection in June

(http://www.wwd.com/markets-news/juniors/vince-unveiling-kids-collection-in-june-7636284)

 

  • "The brand’s new kids’ line will be launched in June at stores such as Barneys New York, Bergdorf Goodman, Neiman Marcus, Saks Fifth Avenue, Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom, as well as 25 kids’ specialty retailers, select Vince locations and vince.com. The collection is licensed to Tawil Associates in New York, which is Vince’s second licensing partner. Its first is with Brown Shoe for women’s and men’s footwear."
  • "For girls, retail prices range from $24 for a tank to $598 for a scuba leather jacket. For boys, prices start at $34 for a crew-neck T-shirt and go as high as $398 for fall and winter jackets."

 

Retail Callouts (4/10): BBBY, PIR, RH, WSM, KER, LULU, TGT, WMT, LB, VNCE - chart2 4 10

 

Takeaway: It's way too early in Vince's lifecycle to be extending into kids. It's one thing to sell a T-shirt for $75 and jacket for $1,000 to an adult, but to push a $500 price point for an 8-year old? Seems a bit extreme for product that from 20-feet away looks like it might have come from Uniqlo at 1/10th the price point.

 

OTHER NEWS

 

ANF - ABERCROMBIE & FITCH NAMES JOANNE C. CREVOISERAT EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

(http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=61701&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1917376&highlight=)

 

  • "Abercrombie & Fitch Co. today announced that Joanne C. Crevoiserat has been named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the company, a position she is expected to take up in May, 2014."
  • "Since 2007, Ms. Crevoiserat has served in a number of senior management roles at Kohl's Inc., most recently as Executive Vice President of Finance and prior to that, as Executive Vice President of Merchandise Planning and Allocation. Prior to Kohl's, Ms. Crevoiserat held senior finance positions with Wal-Mart Stores and May Department Stores, including serving as CFO of the Filene's, Foley's, and Famous-Barr brands."

 

GPS - Gap CEO Glenn Murphy Compensation Falls

(http://www.wwd.com/retail-news/people/gap-ceo-glenn-murphy-compensation-falls-7636071)

 

  • "Murphy’s total reported compensation was $18.7 million, 24 percent below the $24.6 million reported for 2012, according to Gap’s definitive proxy filed this week with the Securities and Exchange Commission."
  • "His salary was unchanged at $1.5 million while his cash bonus — or non-equity incentive plan compensation — fell 40.5 percent to $2.7 million from $4.5 million a year ago, when he received the highest amount possible under Gap’s compensation plan."
  • "Combining salary and bonus, the cash portion of his compensation fell 30.4 percent to $4.2 million from $6 million in 2012."

FLASHBACK: McCullough Warns In Morning Newsletter About Bubble Bursting

Takeaway: I know no one wants to call it a bubble. There’s career risk in calling something what it is.

Editor’s Note: This is one (among many) recent warnings issued by CEO Keith McCullough in his daily “Morning Newsletter” to our customers about the Social Media Bubble bursting. Keith and the analysts here at Hedgeye have been dead right about this outside-consensus market call. We have been steadfastly advising our customers to buy Gold, buy Utilities, short highflyers like YELP, TWTR and much more. If you want to be a part of a winning team and be ahead of the Wall Street herd, you should join us today. Click here to learn how. Why wait any longer?

 

This note was originally published at 8am on March 27, 2014.

 FLASHBACK: McCullough Warns In Morning Newsletter About Bubble Bursting - bubble

“Boom, crush. Night, losers. Winning, duh.”

-Charlie Sheen

 

I was in Vegas playing cards with Sheen last night and that’s what he told me about his short Facebook (FB) position. Social Media Bubble, yep. Crushing it.

 

I’m here to give the keynote rant today (11AM Las Vegas time) at the Government Investment Officers Association (GIOA) conference. Kidding on the Sheen part; not on the government.

 

USA going on the fritz (Federal Reserve Induced Trauma Zone) won’t be the subject of my speech. I’m going to give these guys the Hedgeye wood - #InflationAccelerating slows real US growth.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

I know no one wants to call it a bubble. There’s career risk in calling something what it is. But seriously mo bros, with Facebook (FB) -17% since March 10th (coincided with the all-time-bubble-high in US stocks) and Twitter (TWTR) -30% YTD, what’s the fuss?

 

BREAKING: Candy Crush (KING) -15.6% on IPO day

 

Boom! Crush. This stuff gets real in a hurry doesn’t it? But does the whole free world care? While 2AM PST isn’t my favorite wakeup call on The Strip, I did smile to see that almost all of Asian and European Equity markets didn’t care about USA’s baggage.

 

Baggage?

 

Yes, after creating the 1st internet bubble (1999), then the US real estate bubble (2005-2006), then the commodity bubble (2011-2012)… then the bond bubble (2011-2012), then the 2nd half-baked internet bubble (2013), this is a uniquely American experience.

 

Maybe that’s why (in spite of the social media stock time-spanking into the close yesterday):

  1. South Korean Stocks (KOSPI) built on yesterday’s gains, closing +0.7%
  2. Indian Stocks (BSE Sensex) closed up another +0.3% to +4.7% YTD
  3. Italian Stocks (MIB Index) are trading up small this morning at +11.5% YTD

I know. The Italians have a lot of crony socialism issues, but one of them is not trying to talk their entire country into calling $2B for a headset (Ocular) another brilliant Zuckerberg idea. WhatsApp was a cool Bud Light commercial for a few weeks too don’t forget.

 

Back to the real world and our GIP model (Growth, Inflation, Policy):

  1. US continues to see #InflationAccelerating (CRB Commodities Index up again yesterday to +7.6% YTD)
  2. And the slope (rate of change) in real US Growth continues to slow (not just the weather)

But don’t take my word for it, ask the bond market:

  1. US 10yr Treasury Yields down again this week to 2.70%
  2. Yield Spread (10yr minus 2yr) continues to compress (-7bps this wk)

This is precisely what happened in 2011. As the Yield Spread compressed (leading indicator for growth slowing) the Financials (XLF) started to underperform slow-growth-yield-chasing (Utilities) and the US stock market saw multiple compression.

 

In other words, if you weren’t levered long YELP yesterday, but had:

  1. Commodities long
  2. Bonds long
  3. Anything that looks like a bond (Utilities, REITS, etc.) long

You crushed it.

 

Yeah, I know. We have you long Gold, and that’s not working this week. At -0.7% this morning, it’s still +7.7% YTD though. Beats Twitter. And it sure beats being long who gets crushed by inflation (US Consumers):

  1. US Consumer Discretionary Stocks (XLY) -4.1% YTD
  2. Utilities (XLU) +7.0% YTD

These performance divergences are called variance. And finally we have ourselves an Angry Bird like game here folks – where stuff actually goes down (hard), while other things stay up.

 

Coming off generational lows in US sector variance (i.e. you could have bought any sector and been up last yr), across longer-term investing cycles, this is as mean reverting as any portfolio risk in macro. Yep, sector and stock picking is cool again.

 

So, from here, do you buy the Candy Crusher or the new banking fees boy king at FB? Or do you do neither and go back to buying the Bernanke Bubbles (Commodities, Gold, Bonds) that blew up last year? We’ll do the latter. Mean reversion bubble trading works, duh.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.63-2.75%

SPX 1842-1878

VIX 13.03-17.14

USD 79.18-80.40

Pound 1.65-1.67

Gold 1278-1334

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

FLASHBACK: McCullough Warns In Morning Newsletter About Bubble Bursting - sheen


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ICI Fund Flow Survey - Balanced on an Absolute Basis but Bond Slopes are more Favorable

Takeaway: In the most recent week, absolute money flow into mutual funds was balanced but fixed income continues to display relatively better trends

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

 

In the most recent week, absolute money flow into mutual funds was balanced between fixed income and equity products but bond trends continue to display improving rates of change versus decreasing momentum in equities:

 

Total equity mutual fund flow improved sequentially week-to-week but produced a tally below the 2014 year-to-date weekly average. The $3.1 billion that came into all equity mutual funds during the most recent 5 day period ending April 2nd was split between a fairly weak $949 million inflow into U.S. equity funds versus the $2.1 billion that moved into international stock funds. This higher demand for foreign equity products has been consistent over the past two years with international stock fund inflow having averaged $2.8 billion per week this year and $2.6 billion per week last year in 2013 with domestic fund products averaging an inflow of just $1.2 billion thus far in '14 and a $451 million inflow last year in comparison. The 2014 running weekly average inflow for all equity mutual funds is now $4.0 billion, still an improvement from the $3.0 billion weekly average inflow for 2013. 

 

Fixed income mutual fund flow improved sequentially week-to-week and the 12 week linear trend lines in the product graphs below display improving momentum for bond funds versus equity funds. For the week ending April 2nd, $3.3 billion flowed into all fixed income funds, an improvement from last week's $1.2 billion inflow. The breakout of improving bond fund inflow amounted to $3.1 billion into taxable products and a $202 million inflow into tax-free or municipal products. The inflow into taxable products this week was the 8th consecutive week of positive flow and the inflow into municipal or tax-free products was the 12th consecutive week of positive subscriptions. The 2014 weekly average for fixed income mutual funds now stands at a $1.9 billion weekly inflow, an improvement from 2013's weekly average outflow of $1.5 billion but a far cry from the $5.8 billion weekly average inflow from 2012 (our view of the blow off top in bond fund inflow).

 

ETFs experienced positive trends during the week, with a very strong week of subscriptions into stock ETFs with $4.1 billion in net inflow with bond ETFs experiencing a slightly above average inflow of $1.6 billion for the most recent 5 day period. The 2014 weekly averages are now a $421 million weekly inflow for equity ETFs and a $946 million weekly inflow for fixed income ETFs. 

 

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF trends against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive $2.3 billion spread for the week ($7.3 billion of total equity inflow versus the $4.9 billion inflow within fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52 week moving average has been $7.2 billion (more positive money flow to equities), with a 52 week high of $31.0 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52 week low of -$37.4 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week). 

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.   

 

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Balanced on an Absolute Basis but Bond Slopes are more Favorable - ICI chart 1

 

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product:

 

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Balanced on an Absolute Basis but Bond Slopes are more Favorable - ICI chart 2

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Balanced on an Absolute Basis but Bond Slopes are more Favorable - ICI chart 3

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Balanced on an Absolute Basis but Bond Slopes are more Favorable - ICI chart 4

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Balanced on an Absolute Basis but Bond Slopes are more Favorable - ICI chart 5

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Balanced on an Absolute Basis but Bond Slopes are more Favorable - ICI chart 6

 

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow Within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds:

  

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Balanced on an Absolute Basis but Bond Slopes are more Favorable - ICI chart 7

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Balanced on an Absolute Basis but Bond Slopes are more Favorable - ICI chart 8

 

 

Net Results:

 

 

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF trends against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive $2.3 billion spread for the week ($7.3 billion of total equity inflow versus the $4.9 billion inflow within fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52 week moving average has been $7.2 billion (more positive money flow to equities), with a 52 week high of $31.0 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52 week low of -$37.4 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week).

 

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Balanced on an Absolute Basis but Bond Slopes are more Favorable - ICI chart 9 

 

 

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 

 

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 



It's The Fed's Fault

“And oftentimes excusing of a fault, doth make the fault the worse by the excuse.”

-William Shakespeare

 

As we high-earning commoners read the inflationary “minutes” from our un-elected overlords @FederalReserve yesterday, we gave thanks and praise for not being the 80% of America that will be plundered by them.

 

To be, or not to be plundered (by the aristocracy)? That remains the question that my man William asked The People over 400 years ago. In storytelling terms, Shakespeare’s questioning of the perceived wisdom of his day is timeless.

 

The aforementioned quote comes from The Life and Death of King John. But what will become of thy modern day central planning Queen Yellen? “Here once again she sits; once again crown’d”… and in real-life terms, the poor are getting hungrier…

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

BREAKING: “Beef Price Hits All-Time High” –LA Times

 

It's The Fed's Fault - cow

 

And whilst all-time is by many considered a very long time, whatever you do, do not call this #InflationAccelerating! Immediately after the Federal Reserve released their groupthink meeting “minutes” yesterday, commodities ripped to freshly squeezed YTD highs.

 

Orange juice (+18% YTD) or Coffee (+68% YTD) for breakfast anyone?

 

I know. Silly Mucker. This, according to the Keynesian jesters in the high court of devaluing the Dollar, is “non-core” to American life. Food prices +20% YTD (CRB Foodstuffs Index) and the broader commodities complex (CRB Index, 19 commodities) +10.7% YTD (versus the almighty Dow down YTD) is nothing but a manifestation of my own cherry picking. At least I can eat those.

 

But that your royal pleasure must be done, this act is as an ancient tale new told.” –Shakespeare

 

And that tale is called a Policy To Inflate. Calling it by any other name, would be un-American.

 

To review what brainiacs in academic call “causal”, this is how the Policy To Inflate works:

  1. The Fed says something along the lines of price fixing the rate of return on American Savings at 0%, forever
  2. Then the Global Currency Market reads price fixing as US Dollar Bearish (that’s why we have a 22% allocation to other FX)
  3. Then the Commodity, Gold Bond, and #YieldChasing community buys everything they can with Burning Bucks

#cool, eh?

 

For the 20% of us who can buy inflation and slow-growth, maybe. For the 80%, not so much. That’s why the emerging “inequality” in this country that has been perpetuated by both the Bush and Obama administrations is largely the Fed’s Fault.

 

Unfortunately, you can’t eat an iPad.

 

It's The Fed's Fault - Burning Cash

 

If you’re in the top quintile of Americans (yes, most of you reading this are), you don’t have to worry about your kid dropping the next $700 burning bucks on the Qe6 iPhone upgrade either – you just need to keep buying inflation in order to finance his/her spending:

  1. Gold up another +0.7% this morning to +10.1% YTD
  2. Slow-growth Utilities (XLU) up another +1.0% on the Fed “minutes” yesterday to +10.3% YTD
  3. #YieldChasing REITS up another +0.7% yesterday to +10.3% YTD too!

Yes, there is something eerie about all three of these things being up the same % per day and YTD (Hint: it’s called machines front-running the Fed – which, in turn, slows US real consumption growth).

 

In real-life, you’ll be getting paid in nominal terms today. Nominal means whoever is writing the checks doesn’t adjust your weekly comp as the value of your purchasing power falls (i.e. the things that you need to buy go up in price).

 

Nominal is always obfuscated by money printers and plunderers alike as real growth. As you can see from the Chart of The Day, nominal US consumption growth is on a death path to perdition (i.e. it’s both secular and cyclical). That’s largely the Fed’s Fault too.

 

Rather than rant any longer (see our newly minted Q2 Global Macro Themes slide deck for all the non-Fed propaganda details – 48 slides ), I will leave you with the only solution to all of this (from King John):

 

“What you would have reform'd that is not well,
And well shall you perceive how willingly
I will both hear and grant you your requests”

 

Unfortunately all that is not well is not being reformed. Neither your Republican nor Democrat governments are hearing your requests. Both parties support weak Dollar policy. Excusing the Fed’s Fault this time will only make all of this worse.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now as follows:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.63-2.75%

SPX 1

Nasdaq 4041-4203

VIX 13.11-15.67

USD 79.41-80.04

Gold 1

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

It's The Fed's Fault - Chart of the Day


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