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DISAPPOINTING START TO APRIL

Daily table revenues for April 1-7 averaged HK$866 million this week up 2% from the comparable period last year and down 19% from March 2014.  Overall, the slowdown in weekly GGR was consistent with our model projections and expectations.  In the near term, we remain cautious due to the increased commentary regarding junket and player scrutiny and regional travel concerns.  For April, we are expecting 8-12% GGR growth for the Macau market. 

 

In terms of market share, LVS and SJM were the market share winners this week while Galaxy and MGM were the clear losers.  Q1 earnings for the US listed operators look fairly in line with current projections so investor enthusiasm may not match that experienced during the Q4 earnings season.  Going forward this year, we believe LVS has the best shot at growing market share while Wynn Macau, MPEL, and MGM could be slight losers.

 

 

DISAPPOINTING START TO APRIL - macau0

 

DISAPPOINTING START TO APRIL - MACAU21


Daily Trading Ranges, Refreshed

Takeaway: Every time you hear someone call a social media bubble stock, “momentum,” drink.

Editor's note: This unlocked edition of Daily Trading Ranges was originally published April 8, 2014 at 7:26 a.m EST. For more information on how you can receive these levels every morning in your inbox click here.

 

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BULLISH TRENDS

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BEARISH TRENDS

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Client Talking Points

JAPAN

No more mo-mo for those expecting the Bank of Japan to get looser than the 60-70 TRILLION Yen per year (“We are not considering any kind of additional easing now” – Kuroda). So, not surprisingly, the Yen is up and Nikkei is down another -1.4% (-3.1% in 2 days to -9.7% year-to-date). Needless to say, we remain bearish on both Japanese growth and equities.

EMERGING MARKETS

Buy every Bernanke Bubble that imploded in 2013 (Gold, Bonds, Emerging Markets). Brazil is up another +2.1% in a nasty US equity tape yesterday – you gotta love that divergence – and Turkey is up +1% to +9.3% year-to-date. Consensus macro bets are not in the area code of being positioned for this.

COMMODITIES

Nasdaq is down -6.4% since March 5th. What did the CRB Index (19 Commodities) do on that yesterday? #Nothing. It was flat on the day at 305 as #InflationAccelerating continues to get paid. Gold? It is up +1.2% this morning too, which is cool. Our Q2 Macro Themes call is today at 11 a.m. EST.

Asset Allocation

CASH 34% US EQUITIES 4%
INTL EQUITIES 8% COMMODITIES 16%
FIXED INCOME 18% INTL CURRENCIES 20%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
HOLX

Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration.  The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month.  Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements.  When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner.  With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds.  Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.

OC

Construction activity remains cyclically depressed, but has likely begun the long process of recovery.  A large multi-year rebound in construction should provide a tailwind to OC shares that the market appears to be underestimating.  Both residential and nonresidential construction in the U.S. would need to roughly double to reach post-war demographic norms.  As credit returns to the market and government funded construction begins to rebound, construction markets should make steady gains in coming years, quarterly weather aside, supporting OC’s revenue and capacity utilization.

DRI

Darden is the world’s largest full service restaurant company. The company operates +2000 restaurants in the U.S. and Canada, including Olive Garden, Red Lobster, LongHorn and Capital Grille. Management has been under a firestorm of criticism for poor performance. Hedgeye's Howard Penney has been at the forefront of this activist movement since early 2013, when he first identified the potential for unleashing significant value creation for Darden shareholders. Less than a year later, it looks like Penney’s plan is coming to fruition. Penney (who thinks DRI is grossly mismanaged and in need of a major overhaul) believes activists will drive material change at Darden. This would obviously be extremely bullish for shareholders and could happen fairly soon driving shares materially higher.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

#StrongPound $1.67 vs USD - I'll take Carney vs Yellen on protecting the currency all day long @KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Don't be afraid to be unique or speak your mind, because that's what makes you different from everyone else." - Dave Thomas

STAT OF THE DAY

The hunt for missing Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 is on track to cost hundreds of millions of dollars, becoming the most expensive search in aviation history with 26 countries contributing planes, ships, submarines and satellites. A month into the search for the jet, estimates compiled by Reuters show that at least $44 million has already been spent on the deployment of military ships and aircraft in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. (NBC News)


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

LEISURE LETTER (04/08/2014)

TICKERS:  6889.HK, MPEL, 27.HK, 880.HK, WYNN, HLT, CCL

EVENTS TO WATCH:  UPCOMING EARNINGS / CONFERENCES / RELEASES 

Tuesday-Thursday, April 8-10

  • Mid-America Gaming Congress (Columbus, OH)

Wednesday, April 9

  • SHO Investor Day

Thursday, April 10

  • HST Investor Day

 

COMPANY NEWS

Dynam - Pachinko operator in talks to build Japan casino with Asian partner Reuters

Dynam has already held talks with MPEL, SJM, Galaxy as well as South Korea's Paradise Group and NagaCorp Ltd.  Proponents of the bill expect debate to start next month, and aim to pass it before parliament session ends in June.  Paradise said it has looked at opportunities in Japan but for now has decided not to pursue them.

 

Dynam CEO Sato said he wanted to target regional markets outside big cities, such as potential sites in Hokkaido to the north and the southern Kyushu area.  That would match Dynam's strategy for the pachinko market.   "I think the local area is better. There you can run a stable operation targeting the mass market, with high-rollers accounting for about 10-20% of your business," Sato said. 

TAKEAWAY:  Japan interest heating up ahead of pivotal debate in May

 

WYNN - recognized as one of the most trustworthy companies in the United States by Forbes Magazine's "2014 - 100 Most Trustworthy Companies" list.  

TAKEAWAY:  An appropriate recognition for a premier gaming and lodging operator. 

  

HLT – announced a new strategic supplier agreement with DIRECTV for a new in-room entertainment experience.

TAKEAWAY:  The company continue to improve the in-room guest experience.


CCL - Carnival to sail 11-day cruises from Galveston Travel Weekly

Carnival Cruise Lines said that it will offer the Texas market longer cruises for the first time, with four 10- and 11-day sailings between Galveston and San Juan.  Carnival said a desire for longer, more varied itineraries was one of the themes that emerged from its series of Carnival Conversations meetings with travel agents.

TAKEAWAY:  Whatever you gotta do to tackle the challenges in the Western Caribbean market.

INDUSTRY NEWS           

UK Slots - PM David Cameron called for further crackdown on fixed odds betting terminals. He proposed stricter regulations on the machines and limiting clustering of bookmaking shops.

TAKEAWAY:  Incremental negative for SGMS

 

Korea bets on casinos to boost economy Korea Times

Officials from at least 5 local governments - Incheon, Busan, North Jeolla Province, South Jeolla Province and Jeju Province - said they already plan or are considering IRs.  Jeju Province runs 8 of the 16 casinos nationwide.  It said it plans to build up to 4 additional ones, considering that the resort island has been popular among Chinese visitors for years.

TAKEAWAY:  Until local play is allowed, these casinos will be insignificant and pose no threat to Singapore or Macau.

 

Horse-racing:  The amount wagered on horse racing fell 1.92% in March to $964.459 million, despite the addition of one more race day to 388. 

TAKEAWAY:  Pari-mutuel wagering not immune to sluggish domestic trends

 

Atlantic City - the 12 casinos that operated in 2013 (the Atlantic Club shut down in January of 2014) posted a collective gross operating profit of $235 million, down from $360 million in 2012.  The casinos saw their gross operating profits decline by nearly 35 percent last year.

TAKEAWAY:  Despite the current efforts to reinvigorate Atlantic City, surrounding jurisdictions continue to cannibalize Atlantic City. 

 

MACRO 

Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive.

TAKEAWAY:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US. 

 



Prospect Theory Wins

“One of the main tenets of prospect theory is that people don’t evaluate things in absolute terms.”

-Jonah Berger

 

Prospect Theory was originally developed by Dan Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979 (i.e. after all the Keynesian economic policy makers who worked for Nixon and Carter failed). But Kahneman didn’t win his Nobel Prize for #behavioral economics until 2002. And one of the most important books you’ll ever read, Thinking, Fast and Slow, wasn’t published until 2011.

 

All the while, this thing called the US economic and policy crisis happened. And linear (Keynesian) economic theorists working for Bush and Obama didn’t change a damn thing. There is no #behavioral or non-linear chaos theory embedded in what they do. Almost every lick of what comes out of the US Treasury and/or Federal Reserve deals in absolutes, on a lag – not forward looking rate of change.

 

While that is a national embarrassment for a country that hangs its entitled hat on meritocratic evolution and technological change, it remains your opportunity. Whether it’s Jonah Berger teaching social influence (marketing) at Wharton, or me ranting about macro every morning – it’s what happens on the margin that matters most. Prospect Theory is winning.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Rate of change, or the accelerations/decelerations in the slope of a line measuring momentum, is easy to understand; especially when you show it in pictures. This is why a lot of people in our profession look at charts.

 

Prospect Theory Wins - Its not where you look that matters its what you see

 

But, as Henry David Thoreau wrote, “it’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.” And, in a general sense, that is the Hedgeye Risk Management process when I talk about considering multiple factors and multiple durations, all at the same time.

 

In other words, it’s easier to see what’s going on in this globally interconnected macro marketplace of colliding factors, policies, and prices if you take a step back and look at the big picture. So let’s do that this morning, and take a look at 3 big places:

  1. JAPAN – on both our immediate-term TRADE and intermediate-term TREND durations the Japanese stock market remains bearish. From a GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) modeling perspective, Japanese #GrowthSlowing continues to be our call.
  2. EUROPE – mostly every major European stock market is still bullish on both our TRADE and TREND durations - in sharp contrast to the Dow (-2% YTD), the Italian stock market is +17% YTD (they don’t have social media or biotech bubble stocks). From a GIP modeling perspective, the Eurozone growth recovery is lagging what was the US one in 2013 by 6-18 months.
  3. USA – both the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 have recently broken both @Hedgeye TRADE and TREND support levels. The SP500 is bearish on our immediate-term TRADE duration (1869 resistance) and barely bullish TREND (1830 support). In our GIP model, US #InflationAccelerating still sets up to slow US growth until at least the end of the 3rd quarter.

Accelerate and decelerate, fast and slow. That’s what centrally planned economies do. Get used to it.

 

Considering macro markets across multiple-factors also helps. I still can’t for the life of me understand how you’d have an informed opinion on multiple expansion or compression in stocks, if you don’t have a repeatable process considering:

  1. Currencies
  2. Commodities
  3. Interest Rates

But that’s just me. And to be crystal clear on this, I didn’t get that I needed to develop a process to consider all of the non-linear factors within the dynamic ecosystem that I invested in until I got run-over in my “best stock ideas.” Macro phase transitions can crush alpha, fast.

 

What is a phase transition?

  1. It’s a term used to explain thermodynamic systems
  2. “the transformation from one phase to another by heat transfer” (Wikipedia)

I realize that the alternative to considering market risk this way is using a 50-day moving monkey average. I also get that the guys who taught me about this business used to hold up pieces of paper to their trading screens trying to delineate higher-lows and higher-highs.

 

But guess what, without considering multi-factor, multi-duration global macro, they were still right in considering rate of change:

  1. Higher-lows + higher-highs = bullish momentum
  2. Lower-highs + lower-lows = bearish momentum

That said, that’s only considering 1-factor (price). And while it’s a good one to start with if only considering price momentum, you don’t have to stretch too far to start adding other factors, like volume and volatility, in order to front-run #OldWall’s behavior.

 

I’m not saying I have all the answers. I’ve made more mistakes with live ammo than almost anyone my age in this business. I have seen people lie, cheat, and lose. I have seen others evolve, learn, and win.

 

So I wanted to thank you for the opportunity to learn from all my mistakes out loud. Sometimes I learn fast; sometimes it’s slow. Building Hedgeye in an open, transparent, and accountable environment has helped us improve our process. I’m grateful for that.

 

We’ll be hosting our Q2 Global Macro Themes conference call this morning at 11AM EST. If you have time, we’re looking forward to your questions about what our risk management process is signaling next.

 

SPX 1

Nasdaq 4051-4166

Nikkei 143

VIX 14.11-16.52

Gold 1

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Prospect Theory Wins - Chart of the Day

 

Prospect Theory Wins - Virtual Portfolio


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