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Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain

The table below lists our current investment ideas as well as a list of potential ideas we are in the process of evaluating (watch list).  We intend to update this table regularly and will provide detail around any material changes.

 

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 10

 

Consumer Staples marginally outperformed the broader market last week, rising +0.5% versus the S&P500 at +0.4%. The XLP is up +1.2% year-to-date vs the SPX at +1.5%.

 

For a fifth straight week, the XLP is bullish on immediate term TRADE and intermediate term TREND durations from a quantitative set-up. This is a material shift as the sector traded bearish TRADE and TREND for the majority of the year-to-date.

 

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 1

 

However, the Hedgeye U.S. Consumption Model shows a worsening outlook, with only 5 of the 12 metrics flashing green, versus 7 two weeks ago. 

 

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 2

 

Despite the bullish quantitative set-up for the sector, we continue to believe that the group is facing numerous headwinds, including:

  • U.S. consumption growth is slowing as inflation rises, in-line with the Macro team’s 1Q14 theme of #InflationAccelerating and Q2 2014 theme of #ConsumerSlowing
  • The economies and currencies of the emerging market – once the sector’s greatest growth engine – remain weak with the prospect of higher inflation in 2014 eroding real growth
  • The sector is loaded with a premium valuation (P/E of 19.4x)
  • Less sector Yield Chasing as Fed continues its tapering program
  • The high frequency Bloomberg weekly U.S. Consumer Comfort Index has not seen any real improvement over the past 6 months, and rose to -30.0 versus -31.5 in the prior week

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 3

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 4

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 5

 

 

Top 5 Week-over-Week Divergent Performances:


Positive Divergence:  DF 6.9%; RCO.FP 6.2%; AVP 4.9%; TAP 2.9%; HLF 2.7%

Negative Divergence:  BNNY -6.4%; TSN -4.5%; MNST -4.1%; SAM -2.8%; THS -2.2%

 

 

Last Week’s Research Notes

 

Newsy News Flow

 

LO - Tobacco stocks took a slight hit last week on news that the British government may be moving toward instituting a tobacco plain packaging law by 2015. The UK would join Australia, the only other country that mandates plain packaging.

 

Lorillard does not have exposure in the UK, so we think the pullback in the stock creates a buying opportunity.  Broadly, we believe that despite best efforts of a government to reduce smoking rates through plain packaging, studies have shown that such measures can have harmful consequences by boosting illicit trade.

 

For reference, Imperial has the largest market share (42%), followed by Japan Tobacco (38%), PM (9%); BAT (8%), per Euromonitor.

 

We continue to believe LO will grind higher on advantaged menthol fundamentals, limited regulatory risk, and a growth engine in blu e-cigarettes. 

 

RCO.FP – Last week there were whispers that Remy Cointreau is a potential takeover target for Brown-Forman (BF/B), which sent the otherwise depressed stock soaring. We think a deal is unlikely given the high concentration of family ownership of Remy.

 

 

Quantitative Setup


In the charts below we look at the largest companies by market cap in the Consumer Staples space from both a quantitative perspective and fundamental aspect where we can offer one.  As you will see over time, sometimes our fundamental view does not align with the quantitative setup (though not often).

 

BUD – impressive bearish to bullish TREND reversal here in the last few weeks as the sector style and slow-growth-yield-chasing comes back into vogue; TREND resistance now support at $103.65

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 6

 

DEO – still bearish intermediate-term TREND signal here with TREND resistance intact up at $125.97

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 7

 

KO – looks nothing like BUD – bearish TREND remains, despite the market paying up for everything that Coke has (cap, yield, etc.); TREND resistance overhead at $39.05

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 8

 

PEP – much healthier setup thank KO’s now that it has recovered TREND support of $81.85

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 9

 

GIS – still one of the best looking names on this list; bullish TREND confirmed with TREND support = $49.99

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 10

 

MDLZ – bullish intermediate-term TREND confirmed here as well provided that $33.89 TREND support holds

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 11

 

KMB – still the best looking name on this list – bullish intermediate-term TREND with $107.06 being support

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 12

 

PG – making a run for its TREND resistance line of $80.63 – can it pull off what BUD did, or will they have to report the quarter before that? Style factors being bid up by the market right now play into PG’s hand

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 13

 

MO – bearish to bullish intermediate-term TREND reversal confirmed as $36.69 TREND resistance is now support

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - 14

 

PM – making a run for the style-factor roses here too! PM just closed above its $81.68 TREND resistance level for the 1st time in almost 3 months

Just Charts: Secular Headwinds Remain - PMM

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Matt Hedrick

Associate

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst

 



MONDAY MASHUP: BWLD, PNRA AND MORE

MONDAY MASHUP: BWLD, PNRA AND MORE - 1 

RECENT NOTES

03/31/14  Monday Mashup: PNRA, BLMN and More

04/01/14  DRI: Management Exposed 

EVENTS THIS WEEK

Wednesday, April 9

  • RT earnings call at 5:00pm

CHART OF THE DAY

Gasoline prices recently reached an eight-month high.

 

MONDAY MASHUP: BWLD, PNRA AND MORE - 2

RECENT NEWS FLOW

Monday, March 31

  • FRGI pushes its expansion west of the Mississippi, opening its first Texas location in the Dallas-area.
  • PNRA upgraded to outperform at Wedbush Securities with a PT of $215
  • CMG announced the lineup for its 2014 Cultivate Festival with events planned in San Francisco, CA, Minneapolis, MN and Dallas-Ft Worth, TX.

Tuesday, April 1

  • DRI Starboard Value released an investor presentation, detailing its analysis of Darden management and the proposed Red Lobster spin-off.  Starboard believes Darden’s real estate portfolio is worth approximately $4 billion and that separating Red Lobster and its real estate from Darden’s portfolio would destroy approximately $850 million in value.  The presentation was deservedly critical of Darden’s current management team and is a must-read for interested parties. We highlighted what we believe are the key takeaways from the 100+ page deck in a note to subscribers and an exclusive HedgeyeTV video.
  • DRI Darden responded to the public scrutiny by releasing a statement reiterating their confidence in the initiatives they have in place and once again urging shareholders to vote against a Special Meeting.
  • SBUX announced it plans to bring back a number of its old breakfast favorites as La Boulange products have been generating some pushback from customers for their smaller portions.

Wednesday, April 2

  • BWLD held its annual analyst day, reiterating FY14 guidance of 20% EPS growth and outlining its longer-term plans to sustain high earnings growth.  The company continues to invest in smaller, emerging concepts with the hope that one or two will become a vehicle for significant future growth.  BWLD’s goal is to be a growth enterprise, with more than 3,000 total restaurants.

Thursday, April 3

  • No material news

Friday, April 4

  • SONC cut to neutral at Buckingham
  • DIN rated new neutral at Longbow
  • BBRG Barron’s came out with a positive note on Bravo Brio Restaurant Group, citing an attractive valuation and an anticipated increase in same-store sales driven by better weather and menu-enhancing initiatives.
  • DNKN Barron’s came out with a cautious note on Dunkin’ Brands, citing a hefty valuation and decelerating same-store sales trends.

U.S. MACRO CONSUMPTION

Last week was a bit of a bounce back one for consumer stocks, with the XLY +0.6% outpacing the SPX +0.4%.  However, both casual dining and quick-service stocks, in aggregate, underperformed the broader XLY benchmark.  The Hedgeye U.S. Consumption Model reverted back to bearish formation, from neutral, and is now flashing red on 7 out of 12 metrics.  We continue to believe the current environment is more conducive to select fast casual and quick service restaurants than casual dining restaurants.

 

MONDAY MASHUP: BWLD, PNRA AND MORE - 3

XLY QUANTITATIVE SETUP

From a quantitative setup, the sector remains bearish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.

 

MONDAY MASHUP: BWLD, PNRA AND MORE - 4

CASUAL DINING RESTAURANTS

Top 5 Week-Over-Week Divergent Performances

 

Positive Divergence: BBRG +4.7%, RT +4.5%, RRGB +1.5%, BJRI +1.1%, DRI +0.8%

Negative Divergence: BWLD -3.5%, BAGL -3.1%, DFRG -2.8%, KONA -1.9%, CBRL -1.7%

 

MONDAY MASHUP: BWLD, PNRA AND MORE - 5

 

Positive Revision: RUTH +2.8%, DIN +0.2%

Negative Revision: DRI -1.3%, BLMN -0.9%, EAT -0.2%, CBRL -0.1%

 

MONDAY MASHUP: BWLD, PNRA AND MORE - 6

QUICK SERVICE RESTAURANTS

Top 5 Week-Over-Week Divergent Performances

 

Positive Divergence: PLKI +4.9%, YUM +1.3%, THI +0.9%, MCD +0.2%

Negative Divergence: KKD -6.2%, GMCR -5.2%, PNRA -3.3%, SBUX -3.3%, PZZA -2.9%

 

MONDAY MASHUP: BWLD, PNRA AND MORE - 7

 

Notable 1-Month Earnings Revisions

 

Positive Revision: SONC +0.9%, PZZA +0.8%, JACK +0.7%, GMCR +0.3%, CMG +0.1%

Negative Revision: KKD -3.3%, PNRA -0.4%, DPZ-0.2%, SBUX -0.2%, MCD -0.2%

 

MONDAY MASHUP: BWLD, PNRA AND MORE - 88

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst


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NEW TIME: Q2 2014 Macro Themes Call at 11:00am on Tuesday

NEW TIME: Q2 2014 Macro Themes Call at 11:00am on Tuesday - HE MT 2Q14

 

***Please note new time: 11:00am EDT on Tuesday.

Hedgeye's Macro Team will be hosting our highly-anticipated Quarterly Macro Themes conference call on Tuesday, April 8th at 11:00am EDT. Led by CEO Keith McCullough, the presentation will detail the three most important macro trends we have identified for the quarter and related investment opportunities.

 

Q2 2014 MACRO THEMES OVERVIEW

  • #ConsumerSlowing: The cyclical increase in consumer spending growth from the 2009 lows is under pressure. Rising food prices and a stagnating USD continue to squeeze average Americans on the margin. Given the potential for further USD depreciation and a continuation of global commodity inflation as a real macro risk, we think U.S. consumption growth will slow as it bumps up against difficult compares heading into 2Q and beyond.
  • #StructuralInflation: Following up on our cyclical #InflationAccelerating theme, we are focusing now on structural inflationary pressures embedded in the U.S. economy. Much like in Japan, zero percent interest rate policy has fueled a broad-based portfolio re-balancing away from financing economic growth to reach for additional yield in slow-growth assets. This is fueling systemic underinvestment in both human and physical capital. However (unlike in Japan), the USD's long-term downward trend adds an additional layer of inflationary pressure due to an increased reliance on imported goods and services amid capacity constraints abroad.
  • #HousingsSlowdown:  We have been big housing bulls over the last 18 months. But the party is ending. Asymmetry in being long has flattened.   Price follows demand on a lag and demand is slowing as affordability declines, regulatory changes drag on liquidity, and institutional interest ebbs.  We will walk through our updated view on the Supply/Demand/Price dynamics prevailing in the housing market and our forward outlook for prices. 

 

CALL DETAILS

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 212497#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (the slides will be available approximately one hour prior to the start call)

 

Ping  for more information.

 


Fund Flows, Refreshed

Takeaway: The 12-week moving averages continue to improve within fixed income products versus equities which are losing momentum.

Fund Flows, Refreshed - 2

 

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data & ETF Money Flow

 

In the most recent week, slightly positive fixed income trends outflanked weakened domestic equity trends which is leading to noticeably improving bond flows on a 12-week basis. Despite the slope of the line improvement near term in fixed income however, quarter-to-date flows still greatly favor equity funds which continues to support our long recommendation of T Rowe Price.

 

Total equity mutual funds produced a slight net inflow during the most recent 5 day period with domestic fund outflows offset by international equity inflows. Domestic stock funds lost $267 million in the week ending March 26th, an improvement from the $3.8 billion redemption the week prior but none-the-less the second consecutive week of outflow in U.S. stock funds. The total stock fund category however was bolstered by the $1.5 billion that flowed into international stock mutual funds which netted to a positive result for the category during the week. Despite the choppy trends, the 2014 running weekly average inflow for equity mutual funds is now $4.0 billion, still an improvement from the $3.0 billion weekly average inflow for 2013. 

 

Fixed income mutual funds trends decelerated from the week prior but none-the-less continued on a more positive path than weakening equity trends. The breakout of steadying bond fund inflow amounted to $1.2 billion into taxable products and a $49 million inflow into tax-free or municipal products. The inflow into taxable products in the week ending March 26th was the 7th consecutive week of positive flow and the inflow into municipal or tax-free products was the 11th consecutive week of positive subscriptions. The 2014 weekly average for fixed income mutual funds now stands at a $1.8 billion weekly inflow, an improvement from 2013's weekly average outflow of $1.5 billion but a far cry from the $5.8 billion weekly average inflow from 2012 (our view of the blow off top in bond fund inflow).

 

Exchange traded funds (ETF) experienced volatile trends during the week, with a moderate decline in stock ETF trends with $5.5 billion in net redemptions with bond ETFs experiencing a slightly inflow of $447 million for the 5-day period. The 2014 weekly averages are now a $108 million weekly inflow for equity ETFs and a $886 million weekly inflow for fixed income ETFs. 

 

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF trends against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a negative $6.0 billion spread for the week ($4.2 billion of total equity outflow versus the $1.7 billion inflow within fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52-week moving average has been $7.1 billion (more positive money flow to equities), with a 52-week high of $31.0 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52-week low of -$37.4 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week). 

 

With the first quarter of the 2014 in the books, the running total of equity and fixed income funds continues to favor the stock side of the ledger. Total equity mutual fund flow (domestic and international) amounted to $49 billion quarter-to-date, over double the $21 billion that has come into all bond funds (taxable and tax free products), so despite the short term momentum in bond funds, the equity category is still better for now. These quarterly totals continue to support our long recommendation in shares of T Rowe Price (TROW), which we estimate will have the best results in the upcoming earnings season.

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. ETF information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.   

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart1 large

 

Most Recent 12-Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart2

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart3

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart4

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart5

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart6

 

Most Recent 12-Week Flow Within Equity & Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds

  

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart7

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart8

 

Net Results
 

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF trends against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a negative $6.0 billion spread for the week ($4.2 billion of total equity outflow versus the $1.7 billion inflow within fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52-week moving average has been $7.1 billion (more positive money flow to equities), with a 52-week high of $31.0 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52-week low of -$37.4 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week). 

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart9 

 

With the first quarter of the 2014 in the books, the running total of equity and fixed income funds continues to favor the stock side of the ledger. Total equity mutual fund flow (domestic and international) amounted to $49 billion quarter-to-date, over double the $21 billion that has come into all bond funds (taxable and tax free products), so despite the short term momentum in bond funds, the equity category is still better for now. These quarterly totals continue to support our long recommendation in shares of T Rowe Price (TROW), which we estimate will have the best results in the upcoming earnings season.
 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart11

 

Editor's Note: This is a research note originally published April 3, 2014 by Hedgeye’s Financials team Jonathan Casteleyn & Joshua Steiner. Follow Jonathan & Josh on Twitter @HedgeyeJC and @HedgeyeFIG.

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LEISURE LETTER (04/07/2014)

TICKERS: MPEL, MGM, 2282.HK, WYNN, BEE, CHH, BYD, HLT, CCL, RCL

EVENTS TO WATCH:  UPCOMING EARNINGS / CONFERENCES / RELEASES 

Monday, April 7

  • Las Vegas - National Association of Broadcasters six-day convention and trade show with more than 90,000 people from 156 countries attending. 

Tuesday-Thursday, April 8-10

  • Mid-America Gaming Congress (Columbus, OH)

Wednesday, April 9

  • SHO Investor Day

Thursday, April 10

  • HST Investor Day

 

COMPANY NEWS

BYD - lost its request in the Kansas Court of Tax Appeals to reassess the 2012 appraised value of Kansas Star Casino.  BYD says the casino has a fair value of $64.3 million but the court values the casino at $80.5 million vs the $95.8 million claimed by Sumner County.  Both BYD and the county have 30 days to appeal the tax court’s decision. 

TAKEAWAY:  We expect BYD to appeal.  We will ask management about this issue this week in our meeting.

 

MPEL - (Syndey Morning Herald)  MPEL is in talks with several Japanese corporations, apparently including some with operations in Australia, about joining forces to build a $US5 billion ($5.4bn) casino complex in Japan in time for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.  MPEL is also considering IR opportunities in South Korea and Vietnam. Both countries currently allow foreigner’s only casino gambling.

TAKEAWAY: Lawrence Ho attempting to build a bigger and more vast gaming empire than his very successful father.

  

MGM China (2282.HK) - disclosed via proxy a resolution to grant a general mandate to the Directors to repurchase shares of the Company not exceeding 10% of the issued share capital at the date of passing this resolution.

TAKEAWAY: Interesting as Sands China Limited announced a similar shareholder resolution last week. 

 

WYNN - The president of the Massachusetts AFL-CIO, who as a state senator played a key role in shaping the expanded gaming law, is calling on Wynn Resorts to follow in the footsteps of Mohegan Sun, its competitor for the lucrative Boston-area casino license, and sign a pledge to stay neutral in any future elections that would decide what unions represent workers in its casinos.  The state gaming law calls on the Gaming Commission to base its license award decisions in part on “whether the applicant has included detailed plans for assuring labor harmony during all phases of the construction, reconstruction, renovation, development and operation of the gaming establishment.”

TAKEAWAY: MA is a very blue state.

 

BEE -  announced that it completed the redemption of its 8.50% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock.  The redemption of the Series A Preferred Shares will eliminate approximately $6.5 million in dividend payments for the remainder of 2014 and $8.8 million of dividend payments on an annual basis.

TAKEAWAY: Another positive step in cleaning up and resetting the Balance Sheet.

 

CHH  - announced a first-ever development incentive for new construction Comfort Inn and Comfort Suites hotels to further fuel growth of the Comfort portfolio.  The new construction development incentive reduces fees totaling 3 years of royalty value on approved Comfort Inn and Comfort Suites projects.

TAKEAWAY: Just what the industry needs, incentives to build new supply...could this be 1 all over again?

 

HLT -  “Take Flight” the brand enhancement program which includes changes to existing Homewood Suites prototypes recently introduced its Gen 9.2 prototype, featuring a higher percentage of one-room studio suites. These one-room suites make the hotels more adaptable to urban and high barrier-to-entry markets.  Homewood Suites represents more than 330 hotels open in three countries and territories and currently has more than 100 in the pipeline, representing more than 12,000 rooms.

TAKEAWAY: A brand that has struggled but with good potential, so we are anxious to see the upgrades to a Gen 9.2 prototype.

  

CCL -  2 ship incidents Cruise Critic

  • Three Carnival Pride sailings have had their itineraries cut short by one port to account for an electrical transformer malfunction.  According to PR, all safety and hotel systems are operating normally and repairs are taking place onboard during the scheduled sailings.  They're slated for completion by April 19. 
  • For the second time in six weeks, a broken propeller shaft seal is hampering a P&O Cruise ship.  P&O's Oceana will be delayed for three days in Barcelona while repairs are made to the ship.  In late February, P&O's Oriana suffered a broken propeller shaft seal that slowed the ship and ultimately forced the line to cut short a cruise by three days to make repairs.

TAKEAWAY:  Embarrassing.  P&O news is particularly disconcerting as it competes in an increasingly competitive UK/Med premium market.

 

RCL -  Celebrity Cruises set to launch new ad campaign Travel Weekly

Celebrity Cruises will launch a new series of ads that seeks to make a more emotional connection to potential cruisers.  The ads will supplement rather than replace the long-running “Modern Luxury” theme that Celebrity has used in its marketing.  Kauffman said Celebrity has budgeted $16 million for the campaign, which also includes trade and consumer magazine ads and online and social media components.

TAKEAWAY:  Higher marketing expenses for RCL.

INDUSTRY NEWS           

Chinese Travel Advisory - the Consulate General of the People’s Republic of China in Kuching, Malaysia, has issued a safety alert for Chinese tourists following the kidnapping of a Chinese national in Semporna, Sabah, last Thursday. The safety warning was also delivered by the Tourism Crisis Management Office in Macau.

 

Pennsylvania Casinos Smoke Free - Two Pennsylvania legislators are pushing a bill that would prohibit smoking throughout the casino floor as well as at several other locations now exempt from the state ban.  Nationwide, 20 states require state-regulated casinos to be smoke free. Unfortunately, the three with the most gambling revenue — Nevada, Pennsylvania and New Jersey — are not among them. Pennsylvania mandates that 50 percent of the casino floor be nonsmoking, but smoke ignores the boundaries.

TAKEAWAY: Non-smoking seems like an inevitable outcome.

 

Riverboat Re-Sale Value – the former Casino Queen Riverboat, a  the 411-foot-long, four-story side-wheeler, which was sitting idle for more than five years was sold at auction last week for $600,000. The riverboat made its maiden voyage on the Mississippi River on June 23, 1993

TAKEAWAY: GLPI take note -- Argosy Sioux City could be next.

 

MACRO

World Bank tempers Asian Growth Outlook - Developing East Asian economies will grow slower than forecast this year as China’s expansion moderates and political upheaval weighs on Thailand's outlook -- risks include a slower-than-expected recovery in advanced economies, a rise in global interest rates and increased volatility in commodity prices because of recent geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe.

TAKEAWAY: It used to be that when the U.S. caught a cold, the rest of the World caught pneumonia.  However, today when China catches a cold, the rest of SE Asia catches the plague. 

 

Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive.

TAKEAWAY:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US. 


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