Hedgeye's Macro Team will be hosting our highly-anticipated Quarterly Macro Themes conference call on Tuesday, April 8th at 1:00pm EDT. Led by CEO Keith McCullough, the presentation will detail the three most important macro trends we have identified for the quarter and related investment opportunities.
Q2 2014 MACRO THEMES OVERVIEW
- #ConsumerSlowing: The cyclical increase in consumer spending growth from the 2009 lows is under pressure. Rising food prices and a stagnating USD continue to squeeze average Americans on the margin. Given the potential for further USD depreciation and a continuation of global commodity inflation as a real macro risk, we think U.S. consumption growth will slow as it bumps up against difficult compares heading into 2Q and beyond.
- #StructuralInflation: Following up on our cyclical #InflationAccelerating theme, we are focusing now on structural inflationary pressures embedded in the U.S. economy. Much like in Japan, zero percent interest rate policy has fueled a broad-based portfolio re-balancing away from financing economic growth to reach for additional yield in slow-growth assets. This is fueling systemic underinvestment in both human and physical capital. However (unlike in Japan), the USD's long-term downward trend adds an additional layer of inflationary pressure due to an increased reliance on imported goods and services amid capacity constraints abroad.
- #HousingsSlowdown: We have been big housing bulls over the last 18 months. But the party is ending. Asymmetry in being long has flattened. Price follows demand on a lag and demand is slowing as affordability declines, regulatory changes drag on liquidity, and institutional interest ebbs. We will walk through our updated view on the Supply/Demand/Price dynamics prevailing in the housing market and our forward outlook for prices.
- Toll Free Number:
- Direct Dial Number:
- Conference Code: 212497#
- Materials: CLICK HERE (the slides will be available approximately one hour prior to the start call)