“Selling is hard to teach because it is about what exists in your head and what goes on in your whole life.”
- Mrs. Shibata, the top salesperson at Dai-ichi Life in Japan
The quote above come from Philip Delves Broughton’s 2012 book “The Art of the Sale.” In his book, Broughton studies the most successful habits of some of the best sales people across various industries worldwide – from a Moroccan man who sells carpets and tiles in a bazaar, to some of the world’s most famous actors and musicians, to the top saleswoman at Japanese life insurance Dai-ichi Life, to Steve Jobs making the complex simple with Apple’s revolutionary products.
Selling is an art and there is no singular way to be successful at the art of persuasion. Often times the same tactics fail to work consistently; hard work, persistence, patience, charisma, knowledge, perceptiveness and having extremely good product are all qualities that allow for the subjects in the text to find success selling.
The biggest take-away is learning by observing. Incorporating the best practices of others, while simultaneously discarding the negatives, helps us all optimize our daily processes in the never-ending, impossible, pursuit of perfection.
Whether we realize it or not, we are all selling something on a daily basis – pitching an idea to your PM, convincing your current or potential investors why your investment strategy is going to be most effective, or getting your kids to eat their daily serving of fruits and vegetables. Many of our actions are “non-sales selling” practices – i.e. motivating & moving others.
So get out there and make a sale today.
Back to the Global Macro Grind...
In the interest of saving myself the embarrassment of providing my macro thoughts, I’ll leave you with three of our current, non-consensus investment ideas:
Long Brazil (BRL; EWZ) - Stealth call by the (self-proclaimed) best dressed member of the Hedgeye team, macro analyst Darius Dale; The Brazilian real is up +3.1% Mom and the EQZ ETF is up +12.8% MoM. Our macro team makes calls on the slope of line, and in Brazil’s case, we believe the Growth/Inflation/Policy fundamentals are going from really bad to less – similar to Indonesia last year. Depressed valuations and bombed-out prices make this an interesting market to get involved in if you think US monetary policy is getting easier, at the margins, like we do.
After being the bears in 2013 and heading into 2014, we think EM capital and currency markets are poised to continue outperforming their developed market counterparts over the intermediate-term. In Brazil specifically, the World Cup and upcoming elections are two significant and underappreciated catalysts that could be very positive from both a macroeconomic and investor sentiment perspective.
Short C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) - This is a rare structural short with low barriers to entry with the advent of lower cost technology solutions creating an increase in the competitive landscape in 3rd Party Logistics. We expect both margin and multiple compression to cut CHRW in half. Sector Head Jay Van Sciver is presenting our black book tomorrow at 11am EST.
Long Legg Mason (LM) – Legg is positioned as a prime beneficiary of pension fund flows out of equities and into fixed income with assets over-indexed to both institutional and fixed income exposure at 71% and 55% respectively relative to peers. We estimate half of the $1T in equity exposure outflows to be reallocated towards fixed income as institutional pension funds look to capture higher re-investment rates. With favorable style factors (i.e. high short interest and bearish sentiment), the highest free cash flow yield in the sector, and discounted multiple, LM continues to be one of our top longs.
Upcoming Events at Hedgeye:
Short CHRW – Tomorrow 11am est.
Long HOLX – Monday 4/7 11am est.
Q2 Macro Themes – Tuesday 4/8 1pm est.
Covering some of the top investors on the West Coast, I have the privilege of learning from some of the top non-consensus thinkers in our industry. It’s fun to learn from all of you on a daily basis, while hopefully helping you make some money in the process!
Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:
UST 10yr Yield 2.67-2.82%
The best defense is a good offense,
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.45%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.38%
This note was originally published at 8am on March 20, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“If you have to forecast, forecast often.”
You probably don’t know who Fiedler was. Like many Keynesian “economists” of the Nixon/Carter and Bush/Obama eras, his growth and inflation forecasts were useless.
But I like his quote.
And I really like the opportunity the market gave us yesterday to add to things we’ve liked from lower prices all year. That list of big macro stuff includes Commodities (Gold, Food, etc.), Foreign Currencies (vs. the USD), and Bonds (long-term Treasuries in particular).
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
But, but, she said that the economy wasn’t slowing and that rates could rise, eventually…
“I do want to emphasize this is a forecast”
-Janet Yellen (March 19, 2014)
I hear you on what the market did in reaction to her forecast (Dollar up, Rates up, Gold down). Nice day-trade. But do you hear Mr. Macro Market’s trending forecast? He updates his forecast often.
So, now there are 2 big conflicting forecasts to concern yourself with:
- Janet Yellen’s forecast (which is based on what happened in the US in Q3/Q4 of 2013 – inflation fell, growth accelerated)
- Mr. Macro Market’s updated forecast of #InflationAccelerating and real #GrowthSlowing in kind
And, since you have to pick one of the two, which one will it be?
- A Fed forecast that is wrong at least 2/3rds of the time and is based on lagging economic data
- A market based forecast that is right more than 2/3rds of the time based on real-time market data
To recap the Fed’s forecast:
- Most of the Q114 slow-down was due to the weather
- As growth recovers in the 2nd and 3rd quarter, you should expect the Fed to continue to taper
- There is no inflation (its below the “committee’s objective”), so don’t worry about it
And to update you on what Mr. Macro Market has to say about that this morning:
- US DOLLAR is showing no follow-through to yesterday’s bid and remains bearish TREND @Hedgeye
- US 10YR TREASURY yield is showing no follow-through to yesterday’s ramp and remains bearish TREND @Hedgeye
- GOLD sold off to immediate-term TRADE support of $1321, and remains a bullish intermediate-term TREND too
So, on the “what Janet meant to say” part, you might need Hilsenrath to spell it out for you circa 3PM on a market Friday. I get that. You should too. Most people don’t have a macro process, and they have to take the Fed’s word for it, literally.
From a risk management perspective, if the following three things happen:
- US Dollar Index breaks out > $81.14 TREND resistance
- US 10yr Yield breaks out > 2.81% TREND resistance
- Gold snaps $1278 TREND support
Well, then I forecast that I will change my forecast. In the meantime, I say you fade the Fed’s forecast because I forecast that Janet Yellen will get less bullish on US Growth after growth slows.
Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:
UST 10yr Yield 2.61-2.81%
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 3, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 1.37% downside to 1865 and 0.16% upside to 1894.
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 2.34 from 2.35
- VIX closed at 13.09 1 day percent change of -0.08%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts, y/y, March (prior -24.4%)
- 7:30am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, April (prior 51.8)
- 8:30am: Trade Balance, Feb., est. -$38.5b (prior -$39.1b)
- 8:30am: Jobless Claims, March 29, est. 319k (prior 311k)
- Continuing Claims, March 22, est. 2.843m (prior 2.823m)
- Jobless claims benchmark revisions 2009-2013
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, March 30 (prior -31.5)
- 9:45am: Markit U.S. Services PMI, March final, est. 55.5 (prior 55.5)
- Markit U.S. Composite PMI, March final (prior 55.8)
- 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, March, est. 53.5 (prior 51.6)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
- 8am: U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation Aviation Summit
- Attendees incl: TSA Administrator Pistole, Delta CEO Anderson, Virgin founder Branson, Southwest CEO Kelly, Airbus Americas chairman T. Allan McArtor,W. Douglas Parker
- 9:30am: House Ways and Means Cmte holds hearing on Obama’s trade policy w/U.S. Trade Rep. Michael Froman
- 9:30am: CFTC to hold public roundtable to discuss Dodd-Frank
- Budget panels/testimony:
- 10am: House Energy and Commerce panel: Energy Sec. Ernest Moniz
- Senate Env./Public Wks Cmte considers drinking water protection bill (S. 1961)
- U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Donation Ruling May Aid GOP, Sunlight Says
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Draghi seen defying deflation risk in ECB decision
- China plans to support growth with rail spending, tax cuts
- Fed’s Bullard says inflation slowing may prompt taper delay
- Google trading symbols change today
- Credit Suisse restates 4Q loss U.S. tax probe charge
- NATO warns Russia force on Ukraine border building up
- U.S. opens criminal inquiry into Citigroup Mexico unit: NYT
- U.S. secretly financed social network in Cuba: AP
- Mobius says MSCI plan to add China domestic shrs is bad idea
- Sinopec said to pick Goldman Sachs for $30b retail sale
- Outbrain hires Goldman, JPMorgan for IPO in U.S.: FT
- Senate Finance Committee marks up tax extenders bill
- Iraq veteran kills 3 soldiers, self at Fort Hood in Texas
- Greenbrier (GBX) 6am, $0.61
- Hudson’s Bay (HBC CN) 7am, C$0.50
- Perry Ellis International (PERY) 7am, $0.03
- RPM International (RPM) 7:30am, $0.09
- Schnitzer Steel Industries (SCHN) 8:30am, $0.08
- Global Payments (GPN) 4:01pm, $0.95
- Micron Technology (MU) 4:05pm, $0.59 - Preview
- Seachange International (SEAC) 4:02pm, $0.02
- Synnex (SNX) 4:01pm, $0.94
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Brent Crude’s Premium to WTI Near Six-Month Low Amid Libya Talks
- Food Costs Jump to 10-Month High as Weather Hurts Beef to Wheat
- Pricey Wagyu Steaks Are Abe Answer to Cheap Imports: Commodities
- Tin Advances Most in Four Weeks as Withdrawal Orders Increase
- Gold Trades Near Seven-Week Low as Demand Weighed Against Data
- Wheat Extends Biggest Drop in Five Weeks as Rains May Aid Crops
- Sugar Declines for the Fourth Session; Cocoa Rises in New York
- Iron Ore Swaps Trading Rises to Record on Bets for China Growth
- Yamana Poised to Best Goldcorp in Osisko Bid: Corporate Canada
- Price War Seen as Thai Rice Glut Swamps Market: Southeast Asia
- Foreign Frackers Now Find Comfort in Water-Hungry Spain: Energy
- Gazprom’s $910 Billion Gaffe Shows Putin Economy Eroding Wealth
- Asia LNG Prices May Fall as Gail, Chubu Lead Joint Purchasing
- Rebar in Shanghai Climbs to 1-Month High on China Stimulus Plans
The Hedgeye Macro Team
After all the finger pointing at this year’s epic-ly frigid winter as an excuse for weak company performance, the white wash snow days of winter are (finally) coming to an end.
With no more excuses about why consumers stayed inside, we asked in today’s poll: Will consumer spending bounce back this spring?
At the time of this post, 53% responded YES; 47% said NO.
Of those who voted YES, one responder pointed out that “this winter is what killed the dinosaurs (coldest in 13 years) - people stayed home from work and the shops.”
Another YES commenter further explained, “There's pent up demand from a bad winter and the oil longs are way too bold and when prices correct, the consumer wins!”
One voter summed up their YES vote by comparing previous seasons: “Last summer was the wettest on record in a decade. That's a good year-over-year comp. Bottom line, April through July has a positive tailwind. After that, accelerating inflation will crimp spending in the late summer/early fall.”
And, while one YES voter agreed that weather had a hand in the slow down, calling it simply “fact,” they admitted that “the bounce won't be great, just better than it has been.”
Conversely, among the NO voters, one commenter said consumer spending will not bounce back due to “tepid job growth.”
- “I think the mild bump from pent up weather effects gets more than offset by larger burden for healthcare spending falling on consumers due to ACA this year.”
- “I have less money than last year; [my] savings [are] slowly eroding...”
- “Discretionary income will be lower due to higher fees/taxes and food/energy costs. Spending lower. Consumers maxed out on borrowing capacity.”
- “Most of the relief people receive with the spring will be used to repair family balance sheets and brace for more inflation.”
- “Any increase will be only inflation driven which is not good for economy or people especially when low rates already hurt savers badly.”
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