THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 31, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or 0.63% downside to 1846 and 1.10% upside to 1878.                                               

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.29 from 2.27
  • VIX closed at 14.41 1 day percent change of -1.44%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 9am: ISM Milwaukee, March (prior 48.59)
  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Mgr, March., est. 59.0 (prior 59.8)
  • 9:55am: Fed’s Yellen speaks in Chicago
  • 10:am: Annual Wholesale Inventory and Sales Revisions
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manufacturing, March, est. 3.0 (prior 0.3)
  • Noon: USDA quarterly grain stocks report
  • 8pm: St Louis Fed VP David Andolfatto on virtual currencies

GOVERNMENT:

    • Obamacare reaches March 31 deadline
    • Senate to vote on House-passed doc-fix legislation w/60-vote threshold to send to Obama for signature
    • Senate vote on whether to take up HR2979, incl. extension of jobless benefits
    • Senate Finance Cmte will likely vote during this week to revive dozens of tax breaks that expired Dec. 31
    • IMF releases parts of Global Financial Stability Report
    • 10am: Supreme Court releases case list, hears arguments in software patenting case
    • 10:30am: FCC holds monthly open commission mtg; to consider Chairman Tom Wheeler’s multiple tv station mkt control proposal, Wi-fi use

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Kerry demands Russian retreat, Lavrov seeks federal Ukraine
  • Putin calls Obama to discuss resolution to Ukraine
  • World ill-prepared for global warming impact, UN panel says
  • Obamacare deadline for some private insurance sign ups
  • Banks including Citi, JPMorgan in Swiss regulator focus on FX
  • GM air bag defect investigation considered by U.S. in 2007
  • MH370 searchers operating on guesstimates, Abbott says
  • Paramount’s “Noah” rises to top box office in weekend debut
  • High-frequency traders ripping off investors: Michael Lewis
  • Supreme Court releases case list, hears software patenting case arguments
  • Apple-Samsung patents trial begins in San Jose
  • Port Authority’s Samson resigns after report blasts agency
  • Medtronic ends symplicity HTN-4 trial, mulls IDE path forward
  • Medtronic novel aortic valve reduces deaths vs surgery
  • Tesla says China general manager Kingston Chang left co.
  • Blucora said to plan all-cash offer for Brookstone: WSJ
  • Japan Feb. industrial production falls 2.3% m/m; est. up 0.3%
  • Euro-area inflation lowest in more than 4 years, misses ests.
  • Samsung SDI agrees to buy Cheil Industries for $3.3b
  • Erdogan’s party wins Turkish municipal vote; lira rises
  • Alibaba to spend $692m to partner with Intime Retail
  • Daylight saving change takes place in U.K., most of Europe

EARNINGS:

    • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) 6:30am, $1.59
    • Gas Natural (EGAS) 4:14pm, $0.30
    • InterOil (IOC) 6am, $0.04
    • Tribune (TRBAA) pre-mkt, $0.99
    • UTi Worldwide (UTIW) 8am, ($0.12)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Nickel Set for Biggest Quarterly Gain Since 2010 on Supply View
  • Shanghai Gold Cheapest to London Since 2012 on Weak Demand
  • Grain Bulls Proved Right With Best Rally Since 2010: Commodities
  • WTI Trades Near 3-Week High on U.S.-Russia Talks; Brent Steady
  • Nickel-Ore Supply in China Seen Lasting Five More Months on Ban
  • Gold Trades Near 6-Week Low for Monthly Drop on Stimulus Outlook
  • Wheat Pares Biggest Monthly Gain Since 2012 on Rains; Corn Falls
  • Sugar Falls After Wk-Long Rally on Weather Doubts; Arabica Drops
  • World Ill-Prepared for Global Warming Impacts, UN Panel Says
  • Rebar Pares Biggest Quarterly Drop in 9 Months as Output Falls
  • Record Natural-Gas Need Keeps Bulls Betting on Advances: Energy
  • Former Xstrata CEO Davis Raises About $3.75 Billion to Buy Mines
  • U.S. Thermal Coal Faces Tough Road on Retirements, Clean Energy
  • Gold Sales by Japanese Retailer Jump Fivefold Before Tax Change

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CURRENCIES


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GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS

 

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MIDDLE EAST

 

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The Hedgeye Macro Team