THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 26, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or 0.62% downside to 1854 and 0.66% upside to 1878.                                      

                                                                                         

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.28 from 2.32
  • VIX closed at 14.02 1 day percent change of -7.09%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, March 21 (prior -1.2%)
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, Feb., est. 0.8% (prior -1%)
  • 9:45am: Markit U.S. Services PMI, March (p), est. 54.0 (prior 53.3)
  • 9:45am: Markit U.S. Composite PMI, March (p) (prior 54.1)
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 4pm: Fed releases capital analysis and review results
  • 8:20pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Hong Kong

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama attends U.S.-EU summit in Belgium, holds press conference, speaks at Palais des Beaux-Arts in Brussels
    • Senate may continue consideration of Ukraine aid bill
    • FY2015 budget hearings/panels:
    • House Appropriations hears from FBI Director James Comey; Air Force Sec. Deborah Lee James, Air Force Chief of Staff Mark Welsh; FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate
    • House Education and Workforce Cmte hears from Labor Sec. Thomas Perez
    • 10am: Supreme Court may issue opinions, hears Secret Service free speech case
    • 10am: House Natural Resources Cmte hears from U.S. Fish and Wildlife Director Dan Ashe on effect of wildlife laws on domestic energy
    • 10:30am: Senator John Hoeven, R-N.D., Rep. Lee Terry, R-Neb., Canadian Ambassador to U.S. Gary Doer, API, others hold press conf. on Keystone XL pipeline
    • 11am: House Speaker John Boehner holds press briefing
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Ricketts Expanding Fund to Reduce Govt

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Fed to release results from latest supervisory stress tests
  • Facebook to buy Oculus for ~$2b in cash, stock
  • King Digital raises $500m in Candy Crush maker’s U.S. IPO
  • Blackstone said close to Gates Global takeover: Reuters
  • Fed’s Bullard sees ‘bit of ambiguity’ on end date of QE
  • U.K. starts selling GBP4.23b stake in Lloyds Banking
  • Carlyle’s PQ Holdings said to draw offers From Blackstone, KKR
  • Target to tell Congress it’s probing slow response to hackers
  • Ukraine awaits IMF finding as Obama warns of consequences
  • Citic Pacific said planning to buy parent assets in $40b deal
  • Obamacare deadline extended for last-minute enrollees
  • News Corp. names Lachlan Murdoch non-executive chairman
  • HSBC accused of predatory lending in Cook County, Illinois
  • Toyota to repurchase up to 1.9% of shares
  • BlackRock’s Fink says activists hurting L-T outlook: WSJ

EARNINGS:

    • AGF Management (AGF/B CN) 8am, C$0.12
    • Francesca’s Holdings (FRAN) 7:30am, $0.28
    • HB Fuller (FUL) 6:01pm, $0.50
    • Lindsay (LNN) 7am, $1.13
    • Movado Group (MOV) 7am, $0.30
    • Paychex (PAYX) 4:01pm, $0.42
    • World Point Terminals (WPT) Aft-Mkt, $0.25

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • WTI Near One-Week Low as Crude Stockpiles Gain; Brent Steady
  • Copper Declines on Selling Following Biggest Jump in Six Months
  • U.S. Farmers Sow GMO Corn Banned From China Markets: Commodities
  • Gold Trades Above Five-Week Low as Ukraine Weighed Against Rates
  • Iron Ore Forecast Cut by Australia as Miners Increase Output
  • Japan Raises Wheat Import Plan From 4-Year Low as Output Falls
  • Coffee Drops With ‘Excessive Volatility’ on Drought; Cocoa Gains
  • Rebar in Shanghai Retreats on Demand Outlook, Iron Ore Decline
  • Raise a Glass of Scottish Wine to Climate That Made It Possible
  • Palladium Funds Adding Demand Amid Supply Woes: Chart of the Day
  • Rising Utility Costs Linger After Winter’s Chill Fades: Energy
  • China Gets Gas Bargain as Russia Hit by EU Sanctions: Bull Case
  • Pemex Bids to Keep All of Mexico’s Proven Oil Reserves, CEO Says
  • Wheat Climbs as U.S. Crop Conditions Deteriorate on Dry Weather

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more