TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 25, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 38 points or 0.94% downside to 1840 and 1.11% upside to 1878.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 2.30 from 2.30
- VIX closed at 15.09 1 day percent change of 0.60%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:45am ICSC weekly retail sales
- 8:55am: Redbook weekly retail sales
- 9am: House Price Index m/m, Jan., est. 0.6% (prior 0.8%)
- 9am: S&P/Case Shiller Home Price report
- 20 City m/m, Jan., est. 0.60% (prior 0.76%)
- 10am: Consumer Confidence, March, est. 78.5 (prior 78.1)
- 10am: Richmond Fed Manufacturing, March, est. 4 (prior -6)
- 10am: New Home Sales, Feb., est. 445k (prior 468k)
- 4pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Atlanta
- 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories
- 7pm: Fed’s Plosser speaks in New York
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama holds press conference in Netherlands while attending Nuclear Security Summit
- House Foreign Affairs Cmte will take up H.R. 4278, which offers support to Ukraine, codifies sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian individuals deemed corrupt, responsible for crisis
- Supreme Court may issue opinions, hears religious exemption arguments for cos. re: Obamacare contraceptive mandate
- 8am: Peter Visclosky, D-Ind., U.S. Steel CEO Mario Longhi at Congressional Steel Caucus state of steel industry hearing
- FY2015 budget hearings/panels:
- 10am: Senate Foreign Relations Cmte: Sec. of State John Kerry
- 10am: House Armed Svcs Cmte: Army Sec. John McHugh, Chief of Staff Raymond Odierno
- 10am House Approps panel: Navy Sec. Ray Mabus, Chief of Naval Ops Jonathan Greenert, Marine Corps Commandant James Amos
- 1:30pm: House Appropriations panel: Interior Sec. Sally Jewell
- 2pm: House Appropriations panel: Federal Communications Commission Chairman Tom Wheeler and Commissioner Ajit Pai
- 10am: Lithuanian Energy Minister Jaroslav Neverovic expected to request at Senate Energy Cmte hearing to speed opening of LNG exports from U.S. to NATO members
- 1:30pm: House Energy and Commerce subcmte on energy and power to hold hearing on H.R. 6, designed to speed natural gas exports to WTO countries
- U.S. Election Wrap: Nate Silver Says GOP May Take Senate
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Russia excluded from G-8 as leaders warn of more sanctions
- Senate Republicans seek to void IMF money in Ukraine aid package
- Candy Crush maker King Digital seeks $533m in IPO
- German business confidence falls for first time in 5 months
- Sanofi said to join bidders for Merck’s consumer-health unit
- GM recall accused of missing Cobalts with faulty switch
- GM CEO to testify before Congressional panel on recall
- Senate, House cmtes examine intl energy trade, LNG exports
- Vivendi is said to seek improved SFR bid from Drahi’s Altice
- Lawmakers said to agree on ending NSA phone-records program
- SEC probing bond dealings by banks in loan securities: WSJ
- Google Glass products coming from Ray-Ban, Oakley Maker
- Box files to raise $250m in cloud-storage shr sale
- Brazil’s credit rating cut to BBB- by S&P on sluggish growth
EARNINGS:
- Carnival (CCL) 9:15am, ($0.08) - Preview
- Five Below (FIVE) 4:01pm, $0.45
- G-III Apparel (GIII) 7am, $0.49
- HD Supply Holdings (HDS) 6am, ($0.03)
- Legacy Oil + Gas (LEG CN) post-mkt, C$0.02
- McCormick (MKC) 6:30am, $0.58
- Neogen (NEOG) 8:45am, $0.18
- PVH (PVH) 4:02pm, $1.42
- Steelcase (SCS) 4:01pm, $0.17
- Walgreen (WAG) 7:30am, $0.93 - Preview
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Gold Rebounds From One-Month Low as Ukraine Concern Spurs Demand
- WTI Reaches $100 Before U.S. Crude Stockpile Data; Brent Steady
- Meat Eaters Gulp Record Costs Before Grilling Peak: Commodities
- Iraq Buys $1.56 Billion of Gold for Biggest Purchase in 3 Years
- Anglo American Halts Bronces Copper Mine Amid Protests in Chile
- Miners Face Congo Conflict History Seeking Tin Without Warlords
- Soybeans Extend Advance as U.S. Inventories Seen at 10-Year Low
- Coffee Gains in London as Vietnam Slowing Sales; Cocoa Declines
- Ex-Noble Trader Banga Moves Into Coal Calling Market Bottom
- Crimea Spat Pushes Russian Energy to China, Away From Europe
- Punishing Putin Fuels an Energy-Export Drive in U.S. Congress
- Brazil Drought Rewards Coffee Hoarders Selling at Two-Year Highs
- Booming U.S. NGL Exports Idled With Houston Channel Closed
- China’s Gold Imports From Hong Kong Increase on Import Quotas
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team