• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

McDonald’s plans to release its June same-store sales figures as part of the second-quarter earnings release, which is scheduled to be published before the market open on Thursday, July 23.

The latest proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey asked respondents about their June same-store sales results. For the 35 domestic franchisees -- representing roughly 227 restaurants -- who responded, the aggregate June same-store sales figure is 2.7%.

This survey marks the 39th time that a McDonald’s Franchisee Survey has been published. In the prior 38 times, the actual U.S. same-store sales number reported by McDonald’s has been within 100 basis points of the survey results on 26 occasions, and within 200 basis points of the survey results on 33 occasions. 

The average magnitude of the difference between the survey and the actual result reported by McDonald’s is about one percentage point.

Assuming about 4% pricing, MCD continues to experience negative traffic trends.  Given the extreme discounting we are seeing from MCD, margin pressure can only follow at some point.

These numbers support out favorable position on SBUX and cautious stance on MCD.