Weakness probably concentrated in VIP
Macau average daily table revenues fell 7% YoY to HK$886 this past week and 17% from the rate during the first 9 days of the month. We don't want to overreact to one week of data but we do see tougher comparisons in March and April. We are projecting full month YoY growth in GGR of +9-13%, down from Jan/Feb growth of 24%. While the Mass floor traffic appears decent, VIP volume and hold was likely a little substandard.
In terms of market share, WYNN is above trend although off from last week, as is Galaxy. SJM is the only operator significantly below recent results. With the stocks up so much, decelerating monthly trends at least through April, and all the recent money laundering chatter, we believe there could be near term downside risk to the Macau stocks.
