Even a blind hockey monkey like me can find the right levels once in a while. The Q3 Macro Theme levels that we issued at the beginning of the month continue to hold, so I am staying with the intermediate term plan. Buy 871; Sell 954.
In the chart below I have outlined these lines and included my immediate term TRADE line of support, which is now 912 (dotted green). There is no reason why the SP500 can't drop to 912 as fast as it shot above it.
On the open I made more sales, taking my longs versus shorts in the virtual portfolio to 18 (longs) 14 (shorts). In early July I was running 5:1 longs to shorts. Another way to look at how I think about managing risk around a proactively predictable range is my gross exposure in the Asset Allocation model. On July 9th (see chart) I had a 38% cash position. Right here and now I have taken that all the way back up to a 65% position in US Cash.
Being long US Cash is an investment position. Particularly as the US Dollar Index reaches an oversold level, and the SP500 approaches being overbought.
Trade the Range Rover, and best of luck out there,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
