LEH: Is Dick The Next Willie Randolph?

Yesterday, during Lehman's conference call I posted a note on the portal calling out "$28.15 as important short term resistance. How LEH is trading now doesn't matter; how the stock closes does."

The stock did test my level intraday yesterday, but failed right at the goal line, and closed lower than its intraday peak. Today, the stock opened at $27, but closed miserably, down another -7.6% at $25.14. This chart remains as bearish as any high profile name I follow. Unfortunately, Lehman's hard working faithful have not yet seen the end of the doubt that the Street has in their CEO's ability to deliver on expectations.

The question now is does the stock hit my target of $20.44 before or after the Board is forced to fire Dick Fuld?

(chart courtesy of

Melco (MPEL): Staying Short

My Partner, Todd Jordan, has not liked this fundamental picture as of late, and this chart lines up with his view. Ugly. Next support is $9.94. Short interest is relatively low at 4.4% of the float, and that's why i am short MPEL instead of LVS right now (LVS is a consensus hedge fund short, getting crowded at -15% of the float).

This remains a backdoor way to be long the puts associated with the Chinese stock market crashing, which has turned into a daily affair.

Gambling in Macau anyone? We have an office there, and the edge in the sector.

*Full Disclosure: I am short MPEL in my fund.

(chart courtesy of

Re-Shorting India via IFN into the close today...

Fortuitously, I covered this short position while it was swooning. This puts me in a position to get back to where i like to be paired off in Asia, long Australia (EWA), short India (IFN).

Long commodities, short "growth" expectations.

*Full diclosure: I re-shorted IFN today.

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

"Hedgie" Fugitives: Trend or Trade?

Former hedge fund fraudster, Sam Isreal III, got caught by the transparency flashlight while he was in the garbage can, and now he's on the run. This is so embarrassing that I can't spend any more time writing about him.

Andrew Sorkin at the New York Times did a solid job outlining the Bayou blow up man's travails.

I will stop here, and show you his picture in case you come across his mug.

(AP Photo/Adam Rountree)

US Dollar Update: We Got Lucky Again!

Page 1 stories in the Wall Street Journal definitely help, and we got that today, with some dampening of expectations that the Fed will hike rates at next week's FOMC meeting. Managing a $14 Trillion Economy is not a video game. Larry Kudlow and Vince Farrell are older men... they should know better than to get all the bulls in a heat like they did last week.

The US$ Index is seeing selling again today. I won't recap the time stamps of my notes late last week to keep a trade a trade, but they are on the board under the Currencies tab on the right nav of the portal.

The US Federal Reserve is so confused at this point that the only solution is a flat to down US stock market. This is Wall Street, where confusion breeds contempt.


The Man "Down Under" Has This Right!

Reserve Bank of Australia head, Glenn Stevens, was making comments today that implied rhetorically that he might be done raising interest rates. Aussi stocks acted great, in reaction to his subtle shift.

The Aussi's, unlike our fire engine chasing Fed here in the US, have nailed the economic call this year. They've already raised rates to 12 year highs at 7.25% in order to proactively fight what they objectively observed as an inflation tempest coming, and they did not pander to political populism.

Interestingly, Stevens agrees with me on the his growth outlook, and is hinting that he is done raising rates as a result of the oncoming growth slowdown.

Meanwhile the latest Fed lackey, Richmond's President Lacker, is talking about "downside risks to the US economy diminishing."??

The only thing diminishing is the US Federal Reserve's credibility in being able to proactively forecast anything other than what Washington and Wall Street are going to beg for next.

*Full Disclosure: I am long Australia via the EWA etf.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.67%