Monday-Thursday, March 10-13

  • 2014 Cruise Shipping Miami Conference

Monday, March 11

  • CZR 4Q 2013 conference call:  5 pm
  • STN 4Q 2013 conference call:  4:30 pm  

Tuesday, March 12

  • MTN FY2Q 2014 conference call:  4:30 pm

Friday, March 14

  • Hyatt Investor Day


SJM – Lagerfeld to model 3rd tower at Lisboa Palace Macau Business Daily

The hotel will have up to 270 guestrooms and suites in its own 20-storey tower as part of the HK$30 billion (US$3.87 billion) Lisboa Palace.  It’s described as the first luxury hotel “fully designed” by Mr Lagerfeld, and is expected to open in 2017.  The entire project at Lisboa Palace is due to have 2,000 rooms.  


Takeaway:  SJM at a competitive disadvantage being the last Cotai project to open in this latest supply surge


CZR – the former Harrah’s Rincon Casino & Resort completed a $160 million renovation and expansion as well as changed its name to Harrah’s Resort Southern California in Valley Center.  The property features a new 21 story, 430 room hotel and a 55,000 sq ft casino with 1,600 slots, 59 table games and a poker room.  Total hotel rooms now include 1,065 rooms and suites.


Takeaway:  Strengthening the brand via management contracts, while expanding the Total Rewards network.


HLT – Hilton Grand Vacations and Strand Capital announced the development and sales launch of Ocean 22 in Myrtle Beach, SC.  Ocean 22 by Hilton Grand Vacations Club will be a 24 story tower, featuring 220 luxury 1, 2, and 3 bedroom ocean view and ocean front suites. The property is scheduled to open in the summer 2015.


Takeaway:  Another capital light timeshare development that will add incremental timeshare management fees.  Timeshare undervalued?  


China says no casinos for resort island Hainan Reuters

Luo Baoming, Hainan's Communist Party chief, and Wang Yong, the mayor of resort city Sanya said that casinos will never be allowed to operate there.  The decision may dampen investment appetite from scores of international and national developers betting on stellar profits in the southern province.


Takeaway:  A positive for Macau but not a surprise

Las Vegas Culinary Workers Union 226 – 10,000 union workers will vote to go on strike on March 20th over higher benefits cost – union members voted to adopt the Obamacare Health Plan but are now unhappy over the premium costs each member will pay under the new healthcare plan. 


Takeaway:  Even the unions are turning against Obamacare.  Margins could be under pressure with higher labor costs yet slot revenues not growing.


Palms Las Vegas – will offer the 1st 24-hour checkout resort accommodations in Las Vegas.


Takeaway:  Interesting guest feature, but we wonder if such a feature should be priced at a premium to rack rate


Queensland, Australia – The Queensland government announced it received 19 registrations to bid for the licenses for the integrated casino and hotel developments.  Twelve of the companies are looking to develop in/near Brisbane – including Echo and Crown Resorts.  Detailed proposals are due to the government later this summer.


Takeaway:  A large scale, integrated resorts sounds like a great idea, but let’s recall, despite Brisbane’s location on the northeastern coast of Oz, it is still more than 3,800 miles from Singapore and 4,300 miles from Hong Kong – and is thus, less frequent destination for Asian gamblers.



Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive. 


Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.

Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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