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MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM

Takeaway: While some of our key indicators are showing improvement, ongoing developments in the Ukraine support our call to stay on the sidelines.

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"Legging into Legg Mason"

Invitation to Best Ideas Long Conference Call Tomorrow

 

Please join us tomorrow, March 4th at 1 pm EST for a conference call detailing our newest Long idea in Financials, Legg Mason (LM).

 

Participant Dialing Instructions:

  • Toll Free Number:
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Not So Fast:

Just when it was looking like it was safe to get back in the water. The Ukraine suddenly matters (a lot) to investors, with Europe off 2-3% and S&P 500 futures down ~20 handles. We've been, on the margin, arguing for a more defensive posturing in light of what had been rising interbank, systemic risk measures, rising commodity prices and falling yield spreads. The concerns were initially prompted by the EM fears that surfaced roughly a month ago. Since then we've been erring on the side of caution while the XLF has grinded a few percent higher. This morning, serendipitously, that call appears to have been right. The reality is that through the end of last week some of the risk measures we track were starting to flash the all clear, but in light of the Ukraine situation, we'll hold the line. It doesn't hurt to wait and watch in the short term.  

 

Key Points:

* 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread tightened to 233 bps, -9 bps tighter than a week ago, and the 10-year yield is down a further 4 bps this morning.

 

* Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bps to 15 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 

* CRB Commodity Price Index – The CRB index rose 0.2% last week, ending the week at 302. As compared with the prior month, commodity prices have increased 6.7%. We generally regard changes in commodity prices on the margin as having meaningful consumption implications.

 

* TED Spread – The TED spread fell 0.9 basis points last week, ending the week at 18.8 bps this week versus last week’s print of 19.7 bps.

 

* High Yield (YTM) – High yield rates fell 16.2 bps last week, ending the week at 5.60% versus 5.77% the prior week.

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary

 • Short-term(WoW): Positive / 5 of 13 improved / 3 out of 13 worsened / 5 of 13 unchanged

 • Intermediate-term(WoW): Positive / 7 of 13 improved / 3 out of 13 worsened / 3 of 13 unchanged

 • Long-term(WoW): Positive / 5 of 13 improved / 1 out of 13 worsened / 7 of 13 unchanged

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 15

 

1. U.S. Financial CDS -  Swaps tightened for 24 out of 27 domestic financial institutions. Wells Fargo and Allstate went wrong the way last week, but by a mere +1 bps, and GS was unchanged. Otherwise the US Financials were tighter across the board.

 

Tightened the most WoW: SLM, AGO, COF

Widened the most WoW: WFC, ALL, GS

Tightened the most WoW: BAC, PRU, AGO

Tightened the least MoM: TRV, AXP, AON

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 1

 

2. European Financial CDS - Aside from a few minor exceptions, European bank swaps were tighter last week, compressing by an average 3 bps (2 bps median decline). The month-over-month change in Europe is more impressive, as much of the Continent's banking system is now seeing double digit M/M declines.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 2

 

3. Asian Financial CDS - It was another mixed, though largely unexceptional week for Asian financials. Two out of three Indian banks were notably tighter, while in China the Export-Import Bank widened by 11 bps. Across Japan, the only notable mover was Nomura at +11 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 17

 

4. Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps across Europe tightened notably last week, while the rest of the world was largely uneventful with the US and Japan widening just one basis point. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 18

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 3

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 4

 

5. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates fell 16.2 bps last week, ending the week at 5.60% versus 5.77% the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 5

 

6. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index rose 1.0 point last week, ending at 1850.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 6

 

7. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread fell 0.9 basis points last week, ending the week at 18.8 bps this week versus last week’s print of 19.69 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 7

 

8. CRB Commodity Price Index – The CRB index rose 0.2% last week, ending the week at 302. As compared with the prior month, commodity prices have increased 6.7%. We generally regard changes in commodity prices on the margin as having meaningful consumption implications.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 8

 

9. Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bps to 15 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 9

 

10. Chinese Interbank Rate (Shifon Index) –  The Shifon Index fell 1 basis points last week, ending the week at 1.75% versus last week’s print of 1.76%. The Shifon Index measures banks’ overnight lending rates to one another, a gauge of systemic stress in the Chinese banking system.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 10

 

11. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – Last week spreads tightened -3 bps, ending the week at 73 bps versus 76 bps the prior week. The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps. We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments. Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 16-V1.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 11

 

12. Chinese Steel – Steel prices in China fell 1.0% last week, or 32 yuan/ton, to 3,302 yuan/ton. We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity, and, by extension, the health of the Chinese economy.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 12

 

13. 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread tightened to 233 bps, -9 bps tighter than a week ago. We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 13

 

14. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 0.2% upside to TRADE resistance of $21.75 and 1.7% downside to TREND support of $21.34.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: UKRAINIAN MAELSTROM - 14

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

 


March 3, 2014

March 3, 2014 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

March 3, 2014 - Slide2

March 3, 2014 - Slide3

March 3, 2014 - Slide4

March 3, 2014 - Slide5

March 3, 2014 - Slide6

March 3, 2014 - Slide7

March 3, 2014 - Slide8

March 3, 2014 - Slide9

 

BEARISH TRENDS

 

March 3, 2014 - Slide10

March 3, 2014 - Slide11
March 3, 2014 - Slide12

March 3, 2014 - Slide13


THE LEISURE LETTER (3/3/2014)

CZR dominates the company news today. February blockbuster in Macau.

 


EVENTS TO WATCH:   

TODAY

  • CZR announces $2.2b asset sale to CACQ 
    • 8:30am call: ; pw: 3889366
  • HOT – at  2:15 p.m. Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference
  • HLT – 3:35 pm Citi Global Property CEO Conference

Tuesday, March 4

  • CONEXPO-CON/AGG – Las Vegas thru Friday
  • PEB –  8:50 a.m. Citi Global Property CEO Conference           
  • HST – 9:30 a.m. Citi Global Property CEO Conference
  • SHO – 10:10 a.m. Citi Global Property CEO Conference
  • MAR – 11 a.m. Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference
  • HOT – 2:15 p.m. Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference
  • DRH – 4:15 p.m. Citi Global Property CEO Conference

Wednesday, March 5

  • STAY – 7:30 a.m. Citi Global Property CEO Conference
  • LHO – 9:30 a.m. Citi Global Property CEO Conference
  • RHP – 10:10 a.m. Citi Global Property CEO Conference
  • FCH – 11:30 a.m. Citi Global Property CEO Conference
  • HT – 12:10 p.m. Citi Global Property CEO Conference
  • MAR – Mitsubishi Seattle Consumer Conference
  • BYD – 4Q13 earnings, after market close, 5pm conf call

COMPANY NEWS

CZR – The company held the inaugural lighting of The Las Vegas High Roller for media and locals on Friday evening.  The world's largest observation wheel is the centerpiece of the $550 million Linq located on the Las Vegas Strip. The High Roller is scheduled to be open later this year.

Takeaway:  We saw a preview of the High Roller two weeks ago and were impressed its grandeur, brilliantly colored lighting scheme and striking appearance in the Las Vegas skyline.  It should be a draw.

CZR – More restructuring and negative Q4 pre-announcement.  

Takeaway:  Caesars Entertainment sells $2.2b of asset s to Caesars Growth Partners.  Meanwhile, the core business remains awful with Q4 EBITDA now expected to be roughly 10% below consensus.

INDUSTRY NEWS

GAMING               

Feb GGR DSEC

GGR soared to MOP 38.007 billion (US$ 4.76 billion, HK$ 36.90 billion) in February, up 40.3% YoY.

Takeaway:  So much for worrying about the January "weakness".  YTD, GGR grew 24%.  We would caution that the math suggests march will show a significant deceleration in growth.  April should also look relatively slow.

 

'Certain' govt won't grant all tables for Cotai projects: Tam Macau Daily Times

Secretary for Economy and Finance Francis Tam Pak Yuen said the government would not grant all gaming tables the casino operators have requested for their new resorts in Cotai – at least until 2022. That hands the problem on to someone else, as the former factory boss is expected to retire from his post within 12 months, after serving as economy secretary since the handover from Portuguese administration in 1999.  Tam said, “We do not rule out that the projects can get all the tables they have requested – namely 500-700 tables each – 10 years later... As you all know there will be no more land zoned for gaming after the completion [of the resorts] in 2016-17.”

Takeaway:  We're not too worried about the table cap.  The casinos should get enough tables.  Tam's commentary can be read to indicate that annualized growth in tables won't exceed 3% - that doesn't mean that in certain years, the number of table games could increase more than 3%.  Limiting new suppply beyond what is planned is a positive.

 

Saipan Casino Legislation -  Gaming legislation was introduced today in Saipan.  The proposed legislation allows one casino license holder on Saipan and requires $30 million payment upfront and $15 million every year thereafter until the duration of the license.  The license is for 25 years, with the option to extend for another 15 years or a total of 40 years.

Takeaway:  Asia gaming expansion good for LVS, WYNN, Genting, and to a lesser extent, MGM and MPEL.


Atlantic City Visitation – The number of visitors to Atlantic City fell in 2013, dropping to 26.7 million visitor trips last year, down 2 percent from the 27.2 million in 2012 - reflecting the eighth straight year of declines in a resort town that depends on tourists and casino gamblers for its livelihood.  Atlantic City’s visitor numbers peaked at nearly 35 million in 2005 and have declined every year since then.

Takeaway:  While a number of US commercial airlines have announced additional service to AC for beginning later this spring, it's hard to imagine AC posting any meaningful growth in the coming years. 

MACRO

Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.

 

MACRO MEDLEY: SOFT WITH A SIDE OF MIDDLING

  • The softness in New Durable & Capital Goods Orders extends itself in January.  The labor market continues to improve but at a slowing rate. 
  • Durable Goods declined for two consecutive months for the first time since October 2011 as January New Orders declined -1.0% MoM, unable to comp Decembers -5.3% MoM decline
  • The great 2014 capex resurgence narrative remains in a holding pattern as Core Capex Orders growth retraced Decembers MoM decline but posted its first YoY decline in 10 months.
  • Meanwhile, the preponderance of domestic, fundamental macro data continues to suggest slowing growth – a trend the market continues to discount as utilities, bonds, and gold/commodities continue to outperform pro-growth leverage.
  • After last week’s counter-trend move to 4-weeks of steadily deteriorating improvement in the initial claims data, this morning’s data again reflects a deceleration in the rate of improvement in the domestic labor market. 
  • On a seasonally-adjusted basis, initial jobless claims rose 14k to 348k from 334k WoW, as the prior week's number was unrevised lower by 2K. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims was flat WoW at 338K.

Takeaway:  Macro teaming up with demographics and bad weather as headwinds against US gaming.


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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 3, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or 1.85% downside to 1825 and 0.08% upside to 1861.                           

                                                                                                    

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.30 from 2.33
  • VIX closed at 14 1 day percent change of -0.28%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Jan., est. 0.2% (prior 0.0%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Spending, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%)
  • 8:58am: Markit U.S. PMI Final, Feb., est. 56.7
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, Feb., est. 52 (prior 51.3)
  • 10am: Construction Spending m/m, Jan., est. -0.5% (prior 0.1%)

GOVERNMENT:

    • U.S. government to close D.C. offices on weather. Events may be delayed or postponed.
    • Obama urges Netanyahu to make Mideast peace now
    • Xi seeks terrorism crackdown after deadly China knife attack
    • N. Korea fires 2 short-range missiles off E. Coast: South
    • 8:30am: Netanyahu, Senate Foreign Relations Cmte Chairman Robert Menendez deliver remarks during morning session of American Israeli Political Action Cmte policy conf.
    • 11am: House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp attends briefing on tax code changes hosted by Institute for Policy Innovation
    • 3:30pm Energy Dept holds FY 2015 budget briefing
    • Obama, Netanyahu meet to discuss Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, Iran

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Kerry heads to Ukraine as U.S. considering Russia sanctions
  • PepsiCo, Gazprom face sales threat on Ukraine standoff
  • Putin grab for Crimea shows trail of signs West ignored
  • Ukraine tension seen stoking energy costs on supply concern
  • Riverbed said to get buyout interest above Elliott’s offer
  • Banks’ corporate-bond sales said to face SEC favoritism probe
  • Google, Samsung said to express MSFT-Nokia concern to China
  • J. Crew said to hold sale talks with Fast Retailing
  • Uniqlo billionaire push for global crown fuels J. Crew talks
  • Buffett sets fresh goal as Berkshire misses 5-yr target
  • Roche to halt MetMab lung cancer trial after study failure
  • Obama said to trim budget request for struggling CFTC
  • Sbarro said to ready bankruptcy filing as mall traffic slows
  • Mexico said to question Citi workers in Oceanografia probe
  • Home Depot’s new president said to be groomed as CEO successor
  • Microsoft’s Nadella said to shake up staff with Penn role
  • Gap plans to expand in China w/up to 35 new stores: WSJ
  • Tablet sales rise 68% in 2013, Apple mkt share falls: Gartner
  • EPA said poised to lower U.S. sulfur limits on fuel
  • HSBC China Feb. manufacturing PMI 48.5, matching estimate
  • Macau casino rev. jumps to record after Chinese new year
  • Neeson’s ‘Non-Stop’ tops Lego film for N.A. box office lead
  • ‘12 Years a Slave’ Wins Academy Award for 2013 Best Picture
  • Winter storm missing New York set to bring worst to Washington
  • Feb. U.S. auto sales: Chrysler ~8am, Ford ~9:30am, GM ~10am

AM EARNS:

    • Akorn (AKRX) 6am, $0.14
    • Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX) 8:03am, ($0.28)
    • Rockwood Holdings (ROC) 6:30am, $0.32
    • Stillwater Mining Co (SWC) 8am, $0.06
    • Stratasys (SSYS) 6:30am, $0.49
    • WP Carey (WPC) 8am, $0.57

PM EARNS:

    • Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) 4:02pm, $0.21
    • AuRico Gold (AUQ CN) 4:37pm, break-even
    • Guidewire Software (GWRE) 4:01pm, $0.02
    • MBIA (MBI) 4:01pm, $0.17
    • McDermott International (MDR) 4:10pm, $0.16
    • PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 4:02pm, $0.41
    • URS (URS) 4:05pm, $0.18

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Commodities Climb to Six-Month High as Oil, Corn Rise on Ukraine
  • Brent Crude Surges as Ukraine Tension Escalates; WTI Advances
  • Hedge Funds Most Bullish on Gold Rally in 14 Months: Commodities
  • Copper Reaches Three-Month Low as Manufacturing Slows in China
  • Palm Oil Export Growth Stalling in Indonesia on Biodiesel Surge
  • Gold Climbs to Four-Month High as Ukraine Tension Boosts Demand
  • Sugar Falls as Delivery Seen Showing ‘Dire’ Demand; Coffee Rises
  • Wheat Advances With Corn as Ukraine Crisis Threatens Shipments
  • Rebar in Shanghai Rises as Chinese Lawmakers Meet on Policies
  • U.S. Natural Gas Rises a Second Day on Storm, Ukraine Escalation
  • Ukraine Tension Seen Stoking Oil, Gas Prices on Supply Risk
  • Gold Miners See Looming Output Drop After Cut in Spending
  • Oil at $100 Loss Warning Rejected by Norges Bank: Nordic Credit
  • Iron Ore Supply May Increase 50% by 2018, Model Shows

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Detached From Reality

“They have a detached-from-reality, academic, floating abstraction form of intelligence.”

-John Allison

 

While I was flying to LA last night (during the Oscars, because that’s how I roll), that is not a quote about Hollywood. That’s what the former CEO of one of the best banks in American #history said about the Fed’s finest.

 

That free markets would make better price decisions than elitist central planners (members of the Federal Reserve) should not be a surprise. Ludwig von Mises proved the futility of central planning in his numerous books, including The Theory of Money and Credit (1913), Socialism (1922), and Human Action (1940).” (The Financial Crisis And The Free Market Cure, pg 34)

 

If you haven’t objectively studied any of those four books, no worries. Bush, Obama, Bernanke, and Yellen haven’t either.

 

But you can watch the real-world economics of currencies burning the purchasing power of their peoples this morning in Crimea. I’m hearing that with the Ukrainian currency crashing (-21% YTD), the Ukraine’s stock market being up +43.9% YTD (in burning FX terms) is bullish.

 

Detached From Reality - yellow

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

In Burning Bucks, the US Stock market was “up for 2014” too – for like 1.5 days. But, after US GDP almost getting cut in half sequentially, and some geopolitical risk pin-action in equity futures today, that will change. Life that is detached from reality generally does, in a hurry.

 

My inbox is jammed. I can’t count how many emails I received on Friday saying that the “market is up on a GDP slowdown – your research call feels right, but the market doesn’t care”, or something like that…

 

To be clear, I don’t go with the how markets and GDP “feel” thing. You can overpay to get that from someone else. While the SP500 was up a whopping +0.6% for 2014 YTD (it’s March fyi), it's mainly the inflation and #GrowthSlowing parts of the market leading that:

  1. Healthcare (XLV) = +7.2%
  2. Utilities (XLU) = +6.5%
  3. Basic Materials = +1.9%

The most meaningful parts of the economic cycle (the consumption economy) are actually down YTD:

  1. Consumer Staples (XLP) = -1.5%
  2. Financials (XLF) = -0.7%
  3. Industrials (XLI) = -0.4%

But no worries, as long as you aren’t long anything like Kinder Morgan (KMI, KMP, KMR) in Bernanke’s overvalued Yield Chasing space – or short anything that loves US #Stagflation (like Gold +11.4% YTD), you’re killing it with the whole “market is up” thing.

 

In other non-Crimean news, US GDP #GrowthSlowing sequentially (from 4.12% in Q313 to 2.37% in Q413) is only the beginning of the Down Dollar (USD down another -0.7% last wk, and down 3 of the last 4 weeks), Down Rates (UST 10yr Yield -38bps YTD) thing.

 

And, looking at the components of the US GDP report:

  1. The Deflator (made-up inflation rate) bounce, big time, off its almost 50 yr low
  2. Government Spending dropped -1.05% sequentially from a GDP contribution perspective

So, the key vectors in the P (Policy) piece of the Hedgeye GIP (Growth, inflation, Policy) model are going to require the US government to:

  1. MONETARY vector – have the Fed start telling you we need a Policy To Inflate in order to amplify “inequality”
  2. FISCAL vector – have Obama ramp up deficit spending again in order to pretend to slow the “inequality”

I know, both US monetary and fiscal policy going dovish on the margin is just fantastic. Because, without going to sub 2% US GDP growth and plus 2% made-up-reported-inflation growth, how the heck else could the Keynesians blame Russia?

 

I’m actually hearing from my contacts in Miami that the Mexicans are going to blame the Russians too. Instead of ripping on US GDP #GrowthSlowing on Friday, Mexico’s stock market dropped to -2.4% on the wk to -9.2% YTD.

 

Yep, life in Latin America is starting to suck. With the whole deficit-spending-debt-ramp thing, Venezuela and Argentina are reminding people that Latin American stock markets can go down on stagflation too (MSCI LATAM Index -0.1% last wk to -8.1% YTD).

 

So cheer up – the “market is up.” Away from food and energy prices ripping humanity another new one last week:

  1. CRB Foodstuffs Index +3.2% to +10.5% YTD
  2. Oats (I’m probably just a rich guy eating the stuff) +7.1% to +42.2% YTD
  3. Coffee up another +6.4% w/w to + 59.6% YTD

There’s not a lot to worry about re: the whole #InflationAccelerating thing either… Unless you aren’t detached from reality, of course.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now as follows (our Top 12 macro ranges are in our Daily Trading Range product):

 

SPX 1

VIX 13.28-16.99

USD 79.59-80.31

EUR/USD 1.36-1.38

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Detached From Reality - G7 VIX

 

Detached From Reality - virt55


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