Got #GrowthSlowing Right? We Did. (Back In December)

Takeaway: Our price signals were spot on regarding #GrowthSlowing.

So...U.S. Q4 GDP was revised sharply down this morning from 3.2% to 2.4% in the latest sign of slowing economic growth. For the record, we were virtually alone in our #GrowthSlowing macro call made back a couple weeks before Christmas.

December 12th to be precise.

Got #GrowthSlowing Right? We Did. (Back In December) - snails


Here's an excerpt:


Today, we received a great follow-up question from a very sharp client in the fixed income space: “What is the data you’re looking at to support your view that GDP growth will slow down?”


As with any inflection-based call on growth and/or inflation, we start with the market’s risk management signals – which tend to lead the reported data. The USD is decidedly broken from a quantitative perspective and long-term interest rates are making lower-highs vs. the YTD peak in both growth data and #GrowthAccelerating expectations.


Got #GrowthSlowing Right? We Did. (Back In December) - chubs


In short, this is how we have managed and communicated our non-consensus macro call over the last 3 months: 

  • #GrowthAccelerating was our view for most of 2013. The call was to be long pro-growth/consumption exposure.  
  • As we moved through Q4, we became increasingly cautious on the slope of growth….but, the price signal remained positive and we repeatedly highlighted that we knew we were “buying the bubble.”  
  • The price signal (10Y/VIX/$USD) started to break down from a quantitative perspective. So, we got decidedly less bullish on pro-growth leverage.
  • The fundamental data began to come in increasingly negative, confirming the price breakdowns and we got longer of slow-growth/yield chasing assets (bonds/gold/commodities, etc)  

Now here we are.

Join the Hedgeye Revolution. 

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more