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Double Bubble Trouble

“Double, double toil and trouble. Fire burn, and cauldron bubble.”

-William Shakespeare

 

They say Shakespeare wrote Macbeth sometime between 1. But my contacts tell me he could have written it in 2007. The prescience of his dark tragedy would have been a big call for CNBC.

 

But, from an economic forecasting and risk management perspective, what has really changed since late 2007? On mute, I can still see the same old broken sources telling me that the future slopes of growth and inflation are going to be what they were in the prior twelve months. Huh?

 

It’s brilliant really. To get paid to forecast the weather on a 6-12 month lag, that is.

 

All the while, the anti-consensus fires begin to burn as the next macro risk starts to bubble. What do I think right now? I think that US inflation can absolutely double in 2014; double, double, cut US GDP in half, and there will be trouble.

 

Double Bubble Trouble - bub

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Turning bearish might sound like it comes right out of Scene 1 of Macbeth. I’m in my dark man-cave, I’m wearing jorts beside a boiling cauldron and three witches. Thunder strikes as my arthritic hockey knuckles pound the keyboard. “Thrice the brinded cat hath mew’d!”

 

Seriously. Let’s get real here. All the boys know that my first creative writing paper in the English department @Yale was given back to me with the word “ungradable.” While I may have only had upside from there, I have no business writing you poetry this morning.

 

Back to the call. If I boil down our entire US macro view right now to “inflation doubles, and growth gets cut in half” what does that mean? 

  1. #InflationAccelerating – US Consumer Price Inflation (headline) goes from 1% y/y to 2%
  2. #GrowthSlowing – US GDP growth gets cut in half from our #GrowthAccelerating call high of +4.12% in Q314

So easy a Mucker can do it.

 

I’ve been on the road seeing some really smart and really successful customers of ours in NYC and Connecticut for the last few days and the feedback to our call is:

  1. “You’re the only strategist hammering on #InflationAccelerating right now”
  2. “When do you think it will matter?”

While I think it will matter a lot more as the year progresses, we are quickly approaching the ides of March… and with the US stock market still down for the YTD, I’d argue it already matters. It already matters.

 

Gold is ripping (up again this morning to +11% YTD), and plenty of bonds (and/or stocks that look like bonds; Utilities +7% YTD) are crushing consumption growth stocks too. That’s where this call really matters – from both a sector and investment style perspective.

 

To be clear, my being bearish on inflation’s impact on the slope of US growth expectations doesn’t mean I am universally bearish on every asset class you can buy.  My asset allocation model is basically the opposite of what it was on this day in February of 2013:

  1. Long Commodities
  2. Long Foreign Currencies vs the US Dollar
  3. Long Fixed Income
  4. Net Long European Equities
  5. Net Short Japanese Equities
  6. Net Short US Equities

As you know, I’m big on process. So you shouldn’t be surprised about my re-positioning. As we move towards what we call “Quadrant 3” in our GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) risk management process, all I’m doing here is what the playbook tells me to do.

 

Any monkey can be long something. Over 90% of #OldWall ratings aren’t sell. So when I whip up the bearish brew, I get that people care more about how that might taste than telling them to buy Twitter (we still think you should be short that btw).

 

So when I say I’m “Net Short US Equities”, there are a few explicit positions you can see on that front:

  1. More US equity SHORTS than LONGS in #RealTimeAlerts
  2. Short Consumer and Financials (XLY, XLP, and XLF) vs long Healthcare and Energy (XLV and XLE)

If you think it’s a low-stress life to be publicly publishing my research team’s Best Short Ideas in a market that is just coming off its all-time highs, think again. The venom we’ve received (from non-customers) on short ideas like Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Nationstar (NSM) is real.

 

But I like it.

 

“Swelter’d venom sleeping got,

Boil thou first i’ the charmed pot”

 

Ah, the poetry of it all. I’m looking forward to seeing how the market reacts to its first big slowdown in US GDP tomorrow morning.

 

Our immediate-term Macro Risk Ranges are now (our Daily Top 12 ranges are in our Daily Trading Range product). We’ll be hosting a Flash Call on Brazil at 11AM EST today. Please ping if you’d like access.

 

UST 10yr 2.64-2.80%

SPX 1

Nikkei 144

EUR/USD 1.36-1.38

Brent 108.18-110.69

Gold 1

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Double Bubble Trouble - UNITED STATES

 

Double Bubble Trouble - Virtual Portfolio


THE LEISURE LETTER (2/27/2014)

Releasing the first installment of our new daily product - The Leisure Letter.  The LL will provide context to company/industry/macro news impacting our sector.

 

EVENTS TO WATCH:  UPCOMING EARNINGS/CONFERENCES 

TODAY

  • HLT – F4Q13 earnings, conf call @ 10am
  • ISLE – F3Q14 earnings, conf call @ 11am        

Friday, February 28

  • Nevada Gaming Revenue Report for Jan 2014 released
  • MA slot parlor decision made:  Cordish (Leominster), PENN (Plainville), Raynham Park

Monday, March 3

  • None           

Tuesday, March 4

  • CONEXPO-CON/AGG – Las Vegas thru Friday           

Wednesday, March 5

  • BYD – 4Q13 earnings, after market close, 5pm conf call

COMPANY NEWS

MGM - MGM Grand Detroit January revenue of $41.2MM, -8.5% YoY.

Takeaway:  Impacted by weather but Jan still better than Dec’s 11% decline.

 

WYNN - President of Marketing, Linda Chen, sold 4,600 shares of WYNN at $230 for $1.058MM on Feb 24.  Following the completion of the transaction, the insider now directly owns 100,000 shares of WYNN.

Takeaway:  Over the past month, Linda Chen sold 54,600 shares of WYNN stock at an average price per share of ~$222.  

 

HLT - HIlton's first Q out of the block was a good one with adjusted EBITDA besting estimates $603 million vs our estimate of $567 million.  Net room growth was greater and debt lower than anticipated - both positives.  While RevPAR guidance was solid and in line, adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q1 and 2014 was tepid.  CapEx guidance was a little higher than anticipated.

Takeaway:  We would take advantage of any weakness associated with the guidance.  CEO Nassetta has a history of conservative guidance and we expect Q1 to be another beat, similar to the HOT school of earnings management. The reality is that the lodging industry is in great shape and is a solid late cycle play. The HLT appeal lies in the development pipeline (#1 in the world), Asia under penetration, and the Blackstone related incentives to keep the stock moving higher. We still prefer HOT because of asset sales and their new found interest in capital returns, but HLT looks desirable on any weakness.

 

RCL - Azamara Journey damaged in Asia, drydocking planned - Cruise Industry News

According to Azamara, a cable floated up and hit the vessel while sailing into Tokyo, damaging the ship’s propeller and propeller shaft.  The 2000-built ship will require a short emergency drydocking to fix the issue, ending its current voyage early

Takeaway:  ‘Routine’ incident shouldn't have an impact on numbers.

 

RCL - Cruise Sales Open for Anthem of the Seas – Cruise Critic

Based in the UK for its maiden season, which starts on August 1, 2015. Anthem will be sailing on 3 to 14 night itineraries from Southampton, with the inaugural cruise a 14-night roundtrip Spain and Mediterranean beaches cruise.  Fares start at £1,949 per person for an inside cabin.

Takeaway:  Ship premium will be closely watched later in 2014.

 

REGENT - Century Casinos announces the introduction of a fleet-wide progressive jackpot on board of all eight vessels of Regent Seven Seas Cruises and Oceania Cruises throughout 2014.  The company believes this is the first such fleet-wide progressive jackpot in the upper premium cruise industry.

Takeaway:  Gaming contributes significantly to onboard spend and bigger jackpots attract more coin in.

 

INDUSTRY NEWS

GAMING               

New York Catskills Zone -  Several bidders expressed an interest in building casinos in the Catskill Zone.  One team, a partnership of Cordish Companies, Hard Rock and Simon Properties is looking at a site near Woodbury Common Premium Outlets.  The second applicant is Louis Cappelli, who is looking to build a $550MM resort in Monticello, at the former site of the Concord, a borscht belt hotel.   Empire Resorts proposed a $600MM complex also near Monticello.  Finally, Penn National Gaming also indicated the company is reviewing Orange County sites as well.

Takeaway:  An update of interested parties. While a ways off, NY could be part of a new slot cycle in 3-5 years. IGT, BYI, and SGMS still face major headwinds over the next 2 years including limited new slot markets.

 

Larger jackpots in AC - The New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement approved regulations allowing AC casinos to offer wide-area progressive slots linked to casinos in other states, thus creating higher jackpot payouts.  IGT will operate the wide-area progressive system.

Takeaway:   Good development for operators and suppliers but minimal impact near-term

 

Philadelphia’s 2nd Casino License - five companies desiring to build the second casino in Philly presented their plans to the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board on Wednesday.  The five applicants include:

  1. A partnership between Cordish Cos and Greenwood Gaming Inc for a $425MM Live! Philadelphia casino in South Philly
  2. Bart Blatstein’s $600MM Provence at Callowhill Street west of North Broad Street.
  3. Penn National Gaming’s $480MM Hollywood Casino at 700 Packer Avenue.
  4. Joseph Procacci’s $428MM Casino Revolution.
  5. Market8 at a price of $500MM located at Eighth & Market Streets.

Takeaway:  No opinion yet on probabilities

 

Las Vegas – to see more music festivals

  • Pasquale Rotella, Electric Daisy Carnival founder and Insomniac Events CEO, announced that his company will launch Las Vegas editions of its popular Southern California festivals “Beyond Wonderland” and “Nocturnal Wonderland”. 
  • Dates and venues for each festival were not released.  Electric Daily Carnival returns to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for a fourth year from June 20-22, 2014 and the industry-focused EDMbiz Conference and a new dance music awards show will bookend the EDC events. 
  • During 2013, EDC brought in more than $278 million to local economy with more than 345,000 attendees.

Takeaway:  Such events are catalysts for bringing the younger (20s and 30s) generations, who typically are not interested in traditional gambling, to Las Vegas to experience music, dining, and entertainment. It's the right move but we're not sure investors have fully embraced the long-term decline in slot demand as the core customer base shrinks and is replaced by lower margin, non-gaming customers.

 

LODGING

Versace sells stake to Blackstone with Macau luxury hotel project in hand The Standard

Versace, which is set to open Palazzo Versace with SJM on the Cotai Strip in 2017, said it had agreed to sell a 20-percent stake to US private equity firm Blackstone Group in a deal that values the group at 1 billion euros.

 

MACRO

Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.


February 27, 2014

February 27, 2014 - Slide1 

BULLISH TRENDS

February 27, 2014 - Slide2

February 27, 2014 - Slide3

February 27, 2014 - Slide4

February 27, 2014 - Slide5

February 27, 2014 - Slide6

February 27, 2014 - Slide7

February 27, 2014 - Slide8 

BEARISH TRENDS

February 27, 2014 - Slide9

February 27, 2014 - Slide10

February 27, 2014 - Slide11
February 27, 2014 - Slide12

 


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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 27, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or 1.09% downside to 1825 and 0.37% upside to 1852.                           

                                                                                                    

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.33 from 2.34
  • VIX closed at 14.35 1 day percent change of 4.97%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Durable Goods, Jan., est -1.6% (pr -4.3%, rev -4.2%)
  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, Feb. 22, est. 335k (prior 336k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Feb. 23 (prior -30.6)
  • 10am: Fed’s Yellen testifies to Senate Banking Committee
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 10:30am: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Frankfurt
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Mfg Activity, Feb., est. 2 (prior 5)
  • 1:30pm: ECB’s Draghi speaks in Frankfurt
  • 3:15pm: Fed’s Lockhart and George speak in Atlanta

GOVERNMENT:

    • 9:30am: House Oversight panel holds hearing on IRS examinations of political speech by tax-exempt groups
    • 10am: Senate Banking Cmte hears from Fed Chair Yellen on semiannual monetary report to Congress
    • 10am: House Transportation and Infrastructure panel meets on “Improving the Nation’s Highway Freight Network”

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Janet Yellen to testify before Senate Banking Committee
  • Sony job cuts to include a third of electronics unit workers
  • Baidu 1Q revenue forecast tops estimate as 4Q beats
  • Williams Partners to buy Williams Canada assets for $1.2b
  • JPMorgan sees March bid for Global Special Opportunities: WSJ
  • J.C. Penney gains as sales forecast signals turnaround momentum
  • KKR said to seek Abril Educacao deal avoiding $1b buyout
  • Imerys tops Minerals Technologies bid for clay-supplier Amcol
  • Bitcoin Foundation aided New York prosecutor’s Mt. Gox probe
  • U.S. cos. seen making exchange plans to trade Bitcoin: WSJ
  • Google fights e-mail privacy group lawsuit calling it too big
  • Musk’s $5b Tesla gigafactory may unleash incentive fray
  • Gunmen take Ukraine’s Crimea parliament, raise Russian flag
  • German unemployment falls for 3rd month as growth picks up
  • Eurozone Feb. economic confidence rises to 101.2; est. 100.7
  • RBS posts biggest loss since 2008 as McEwan details overhaul
  • WPP falls most in 4 yrs as exchange rates hurt margins
  • Financing for Jos. A. Bank’s Bauer deal delayed by Goldman: WSJ

AM EARNS:

    • American Realty Capital (ARCP) 6am, $0.27
    • Best Buy (BBY) 7am, $1.01 - Preview
    • Chico’s (CHS) 7:15am, $0.16
    • Cobalt International Energy (CIE) 7am, $(0.16)
    • Federal Home Loan Mortgage (FMCC) 8am, $0.73
    • Fortress Investment Group (FIG) 7am, $0.19
    • GrafTech Intl (GTI) 7:10am, $0.03
    • Hilton (HLT) Bef-Mkt, $0.16
    • Kohl’s (KSS) 7am, $1.54 - Preview
    • Lamar Advertising (LAMR) 6am, $0.16
    • Linn Energy (LINE) 6:50am, $0.26
    • LinnCo (LNCO) 6:50am, $0.50
    • LKQ (LKQ) 7am, $0.28
    • Mylan (MYL) 6:30am, $0.75 - Preview
    • Nationstar Mortgage (NSM) 6am, $(0.19)
    • NorthStar Realty Finance (NRF) 7:30am, $0.29
    • Ocwen Financial (OCN) 7:30am, $1
    • Pall (PLL) 7am, $0.80
    • Rowan Cos (RDC) 8am, $0.41
    • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) 7am, $(0.70)
    • Sears Holdings (SHLD) 6am, $(1.82)
    • Sempra Energy (SRE) 9am, $0.97
    • Toronto-Dominion (TD CN) 6:30am, C$1.04 - Preview
    • Valeant Pharaceuticals (VRX) 6am, $2.06 - Preview
    • Wendy’s (WEN) 7:30am, $0.10
    • Western Refining (WNR) 6am, $0.56
    • Windstream (WIN) 6:15am, $0.09
    • WPX Energy (WPX) 7am, $(0.35)
    • Zale (ZLC) 7:30am, $1.04

PM EARNS:

    • ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) 4:01pm, $(0.13)
    • Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) 4:03pm, $0.15 - Preview
    • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) 4pm, $3.79
    • Gap (GPS) 4pm, $0.65
    • KBR (KBR) 4:08pm, $0.91
    • Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) 4:01pm, $0.18
    • Medivation (MDVN) 4:10pm, $(0.09)
    • Mentor Graphics (MENT) 4:05pm, $0.91
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) 4:05pm, $0.46
    • New Gold (NGD CN) 4:04pm, $0.03
    • OmniVision Technologies (OVTI) 4:18pm, $0.35
    • Ross Stores (ROST) 4pm, $1.01 - Preview
    • Salesforce.com (CRM) 4:05pm, $0.06
    • Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP) 4:01pm, $0.93
    • SandRidge Energy (SD) 4:05pm, $0.00
    • Sotheby’s (BID) 4pm, $1.41
    • Splunk (SPLK) 4:02pm, $0.05
    • Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) 4:05pm, $0.06
    • Universal Health Services (UHS) 5:01pm, $1.08
    • Youku Tudou (YOKU) 4:30pm, $0.02

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Copper Trades Near December Low With Production Set to Expand
  • Japan No Country for Old Farmers as 7-Eleven Takes Up the Plow
  • EU Fines No Bar to Milk Output Gain as Price Surges: Commodities
  • Brent Crude Declines to One-Week Low; Premium to WTI Narrows
  • Gold Rally Restores Luster to ETFs After Slide: Chart of the Day
  • Wheat Extends Loss as Demand Seen Easing Amid Argentina Exports
  • Arabica Coffee Drops Following Surge on Brazil Crop-Forecast Cut
  • China Copper Premium Slumps to Eight-Month Low as Yuan Weakens
  • Palm Oil Climbing for Merchant’s Coleman on Dry Weather Risk
  • Cattle Poised to Extend Rally With Hogs as U.S. Meat Supply Ebbs
  • Oil Giants Sell Pipelines as Shale Strength Drives Deals: Energy
  • Shale Boom Brings Rethinking of U.S. Crude Export Ban: QuickTake
  • Europe Refiner Bull & Bear Pits New Markets vs. Tax: BI Outlook
  • Gold Erases Drop in London, Is Little Changed at $1,332.07/Oz

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


ICI Fund Flow Survey - Solid Equity Inflow into Both Mutual Funds and ETFs

Takeaway: Both equity mutual funds and ETFs displayed solid trends in the most recent week with small but improving bond inflow into mutual funds

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

 

In the most recent week, both equity vehicles including mutual funds and ETFs had solid inflow trends with small but improving inflows into bond mutual funds as well:

 

Total equity mutual funds produced a strong week of inflow with $5.8 billion of net subscriptions, a slight deceleration from the $7.2 billion inflow the week prior. The $5.8 billion inflow had a domestic bend during the most recent 5 day period, with $4.1 billion flowing into domestic equity funds and $1.7 billion flowing into international stock funds. The 2014 running weekly average inflow for equity mutual funds is now $4.9 billion, an improvement from the $3.0 billion weekly average inflow for 2013. 

 

Fixed income mutual funds also had net inflows during the 5 day period ending February 19th with $2.8 billion flowing into all fixed income funds. The breakout of improving bond inflow amounted to $2.4 billion into taxable products and a $422 million inflow into tax-free or municipal products, the 6th consecutive week of inflow into munis after 33 consecutive weeks of outflow. The 2014 weekly average for fixed income mutual funds now stands at a $523 million weekly inflow, an improvement from 2013's weekly average outflow of $1.5 billion but a far cry from the $5.8 billion weekly average inflow from 2012 (our view of the blow off top in bond fund inflow).

 

ETFs had mixed trends during the week, with a strong week of subscriptions in stock ETFs with $8.9 billion in net inflow with bond ETFs experiencing withdrawals of $625 million. The 2014 weekly averages are now a $3.3 billion weekly outflow for equity ETFs and a $2.3 billion weekly inflow for fixed income ETFs. 

 

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF trends against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive $12.6 billion spread for the week ($14.8 billion of total equity inflow versus the $2.2 billion inflow within fixed income; positive numbers imply inflows for stocks; negative numbers imply inflows for bonds). The 52 week moving average has been $6.9 billion (positive spread to equities), with a 52 week high of $30.9 billion (positive spread to equities) and a 52 week low of -$36.9 billion (negative numbers imply a net inflow into bonds for the week). 

 

Continued strong equity mutual fund inflow trends currently support our favorite long idea in the sector, T Rowe Price (TROW) which should benefit with a leading retail equity mutual fund franchise. In addition, we recently added Legg Mason (LM) to our Best Ideas list on the long side to capture the emerging trends on the institutional side of the industry which is experiencing inflow into fixed income and outflow in equities (see our Legg report here).

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.   

 

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Solid Equity Inflow into Both Mutual Funds and ETFs - ICI chart 1

 

 ICI Fund Flow Survey - Solid Equity Inflow into Both Mutual Funds and ETFs - ICI chart 2

 

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product:

 

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Solid Equity Inflow into Both Mutual Funds and ETFs - ICI chart 3

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Solid Equity Inflow into Both Mutual Funds and ETFs - ICI chart 4

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Solid Equity Inflow into Both Mutual Funds and ETFs - ICI chart 5

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Solid Equity Inflow into Both Mutual Funds and ETFs - ICI chart 6

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Solid Equity Inflow into Both Mutual Funds and ETFs - ICI chart 7

 

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow Within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds:

  

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Solid Equity Inflow into Both Mutual Funds and ETFs - ICI chart 8

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Solid Equity Inflow into Both Mutual Funds and ETFs - ICI chart 9

 

 

Net Results:

 

 

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF trends against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive $12.6 billion spread for the week ($14.8 billion of total equity inflow versus the $2.2 billion inflow within fixed income; positive numbers imply inflows for stocks; negative numbers imply inflows for bonds). The 52 week moving average has been $6.9 billion (positive spread to equities), with a 52 week high of $30.9 billion (positive spread to equities) and a 52 week low of -$36.9 billion (negative numbers imply a net inflow into bonds for the week). 

 

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Solid Equity Inflow into Both Mutual Funds and ETFs - ICI chart 10 

 

 

Continued strong equity mutual fund inflow trends currently support our favorite long idea in the sector, T Rowe Price (TROW) which should benefit with a leading retail equity mutual fund franchise. In addition, we recently added Legg Mason (LM) to our Best Ideas list on the long side to capture the emerging trends on the institutional side of the industry which is experiencing inflow into fixed income and outflow in equities (see our Legg report here).

 

 

 

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 

 

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 


Moving People

This note was originally published at 8am on February 13, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“As teachers, we want to move people.”

-Larry Ferlazzo

 

That’s such a simple but solid leadership thought from Daniel Pink in the latest #behavioral book I’ve cracked open, To Sell Is Human (pg 39). “The capacity to sell isn’t some unnatural adaptation to the merciless world of commerce. It is part of who we are.”

 

Moving People - battletofight

 

Pink goes on to make an astute point about the information laden world in which we now live in, suggesting that the most successful companies are going to be “curators and clarifiers” of everything that’s being tweeted, googled, and facebooked at you “… helping to make sense of the blizzard of facts, data, and options…” (pg 56)

 

While we have plenty of work to do, lots of people to hire, and many improvements to make, that’s pretty much how we see Hedgeye helping you. We aren’t waking up every morning to punch clock. We want to synthesize and analyze every lick of information we can find, and move you to move when consensus won’t.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Moving you out of consumer growth stocks and into Commodities, Gold, and Bonds is where we’ve been at now for almost 6 weeks. That didn’t change at yesterday’s low-volume-lower-high for the SP500 either. That’s where we tried to move you more aggressively.

 

Getting people (including ourselves) to move isn’t easy. We get that. We also get that we need to build your trust in our process so that you understand why we are telling you that we think you should move and when.

 

Our communication process continues to evolve, but the best way for us to move you is:

  1. Get up at the top of the risk management morning and write you this strategy note every day
  2. Update you on the top trending Macro Themes that we don’t think are yet consensus
  3. Dynamically update (real-time) both our asset allocation and long/short position shifts

In terms of asset allocation shifts, you see that in the Early Look every day – the big ones in the last 2 months have been:

  1. Raising Commodities from 0% for most of last year to 15% this morning
  2. Raising Fixed Income from 0% for most of last year to 15% this morning
  3. Cutting our US Equity exposure from our top allocation for all of 2013 to 0% this morning

0%?

 

Yep. I’m un-elected too don’t forget. When I want to move you, I can cut to 0% too!

 

And that’s really the point. We get that each and every person reading this note has different risk tolerances and investment durations. But you don’t pay us to boil the ocean on every single thing for every single person. I think we’re more like your Big Macro weather insurance policy. When we want you to get out of something, we mean it.

 

On the long/short signaling shifts, the only way for me to show everyone what I really think and when is via #RealTimeAlerts:

  1. In the last 3-days (on the way up in stocks), I went from 4 LONGS, 6 SHORTS to 4 LONGS, 10 SHORTS
  2. Of the 4 LONGS, I sold equities like WWW and replaced them with bonds (yesterday bought BND)
  3. Of the 10 SHORTS, I re-shorted most of the names we covered when the SP500 was on its YTD lows

As you all know, I don’t always nail it in terms of my net positioning and long/short security selection. But that’s not the point about giving you 100% transparency in terms of what we do and when. The point is to help you A) understand why we are moving and B) hold us accountable to the timing of every move we make.

 

Back to the macro market, the most important things in my notebook this morning are as follows:

  1. US Dollar Index continues to breakdown, testing its YTD lows, confirming its bearish @Hedgeye TREND
  2. US 10yr Treasury Yield of 2.74% failed to overcome @Hedgeye 2.80% TREND resistance
  3. SP500 has immediate-term TRADE downside to 1728
  4. VIX has immediate-term TRADE upside to 20.41
  5. Yen continues to signal a bullish developing TREND vs USD (very bearish for the Nikkei, -10.8% YTD)
  6. CRB Commodities Index outperformed SP500 again yesterday, +0.5% to a fresh YTD high of +4.3%

In other words, if the both the research and risk management signals are:

  1. Bullish on Commodity #InflationAccelerating (our Top Macro Theme for Q114)
  2. Bearish on rate of change in US Consumption Growth
  3. Bearish on US currency and bond yields

Then why wouldn’t I try to keep moving you out of consumer growth equities and into commodities and bonds? Always right? No. Simple and solid. Yes. That’s what the insurance policy on your long-term investments should be.

 

Our immediate-term Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.59-2.80%

SPX 1728-1836

Nikkei 13861-15029

USD 80.21-80.87

Pound 1.64-1.66

Gold 1266-1298

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Moving People - Chart of the Day

 

Moving People - Virtual Portfolio


Early Look

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