THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 25, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 37 points or 1.71% downside to 1816 and 0.29% upside to 1853.                            

                                                                                                   

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.42 from 2.42
  • VIX closed at 14.23 1 day percent change of -3.07%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly sales
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index m/m, Dec., est. 0.4% (pr 0.1%)
  • 9am: S&P/CS Home Price Index 20-City m/m, Dec., est. 0.6%
  • 10am: Consumer Confidence Index, Feb., est. 80 (prior 80.7)
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manuf Index, Feb., est. 5 (prior 12)
  • 10:10am: Fed’s Tarullo speaks in Arlington, Va.
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • 10am: Senate Banking Cmte holds hearing on Terrorism Risk Insurance Act
    • 12pm: Breitling Energy CEO Chris Faulkner speaks at Natural Gas Roundtable lunch
    • Obama delivers remarks/holds event on economy at White House, Organizing for Action event in evening

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • JPMorgan holds investor mtg today; may mean shr volatility
  • JPMorgan may announce more mortgage unit job cuts today: FT
  • Boeing said to struggle to sell $1.1b of early 787s
  • Chevron said to be exploring options for U.S. midstream unit
  • Deutsche Telekom seeks WhatsApp alliance after Facebook deal
  • AT&T offers unlimited intl texts to challenge T-Mobile
  • Samsung shows Galaxy S5 reading fingerprints to fight iPhone
  • Credit Suisse said to be faulted by Senate over tax dodgers
  • Softbank said to seek stake in Naver’s Line messaging unit
  • Vivendi 4Q sales trail ests. on mobile price war
  • LinkedIn expands in China with local site limiting content
  • Microsoft CEO moves Larson-Green to software and services role
  • IBM pledges New York job retention a yr after firing workers
  • Mt. Gox Bitcoin exchange goes offline as peers lash out
  • Ukraine delays picking govt. to Feb. 27, acting leader says
  • KKR gets bids of ~$800m for Ipreo from Blackstone, Carlyle: FT

AM EARNS:

    • American Tower (AMT) 7am, $0.47 - Preview
    • ARIAD Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) 7:35am, $(0.46)
    • Bank of Montreal (BMO CN) 6:30am, C$1.52 - Preview
    • Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) 6:30am, $0.37
    • DiamondRock Hospitality Co (DRH) 7:30am, $0.06
    • Fifth & Pacific Cos (FNP) 7:34am, $0.28
    • FirstEnergy (FE) 8:30am, $0.70
    • HollyFrontier (HFC) 7am, $0.21
    • Home Depot (HD) 6am, $0.71 - Preview
    • Macy’s (M) 8am, $2.17 - Preview
    • Office Depot (ODP) 7am, $0.03 - Preview
    • OGE Energy (OGE) 7am, $0.25
    • OGE Energy (OGE) 7am, $0.25
    • Realogy Holdings (RLGY) 6:35am, $0.27
    • Steve Madden (SHOO) 7am, $0.53
    • T-Mobile (TMUS) 7am, $(0.13) - Preview
    • United Therapeutics (UTHR) 6am, $1.50

PM EARNS:

    • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 4:05pm, $0.26
    • Avago Technologies (AVGO) 4:05pm, $0.79
    • Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) 4:01pm, $1.16
    • Dreamworks Animation (DWA) 4:02pm, $0.32
    • Edison International (EIX) 4pm, $0.68
    • EXCO Resources (XCO) 4:01pm, $0.07
    • First Solar (FSLR) 4:02pm, $1.02
    • Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc (JAZZ) 4:05pm, $1.78
    • Oasis Petroleum (OAS) 4:15pm, $0.63
    • QEP Resources (QEP) 4:05pm, $0.40
    • Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) 4:01pm, $1.66
    • Range Resources (RRC) 5:01pm, $0.39
    • RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD) 4pm, $0.38
    • SBA Communications (SBAC) 4:01pm, $(0.03)
    • Superior Energy Services (SPN) 4:05pm, $0.31
    • US Silica Holdings (SLCA) 4:30pm, $0.32
    • Verisk Analytics (VRSK) 4:10pm, $0.55
    • Weatherford International (WFT) 4:40pm, $0.07

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Nickel Exceeding $20,000 for Vale on Indonesian Ore Export Ban
  • WTI Crude Falls Amid Rising U.S. Inventories; Brent Declines
  • Almond Drought Boosts India Sweets to Aussie Farms: Commodities
  • Copper Declines for a Second Day as China’s Currency Weakens
  • Gold Trades Near 16-Week High as Ukraine Weighed Against Demand
  • Sugar Extends Gains as Copersucar Cuts Brazil Area Crop Forecast
  • Wheat Holds Near 2-Month High as Cold Leaves Conditions in Focus
  • Sugar Rising to 20 Cents for F.O. Licht as Global Deficit Looms
  • Winter Natural Gas Price Swings Seen Threatening U.S. LNG Edge
  • China Copper Demand to Advance as Much as 7%, Jiangxi’s Wu Says
  • ICE Dumps Pepper in Singapore to Pave Way for Asia Expansion
  • Rolls-Royce Drone Ships Challenge $375 Billion Industry: Freight
  • Global Coal Output Triples Growth Rates of 1980s, 1990s
  • Rebar Drops to Lowest Since 2012 Amid Property Loan Curbs

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more