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Takeaway: We're banging this drum loud and hard. For good reason.

#InflationAccelerating remains our  #1 non-consensus Macro Theme.

The Most Important Macro Theme Right Now - hair

Check out the CRB Index which closed up another +1.1% yesterday. It’s now up almost +8% year-to-date (and it’s still only February). Compare that with the S&P 500 which fell -0.65% yesterday and is down -1.1% YTD.

Gold? It rose another +0.2% to over +9% YTD.

What's that? Consumer Discretionary has fallen -3.2% YTD? Exactly. There’s no question that inflation is a tax on U.S. consumption expectations. 

The Most Important Macro Theme Right Now - XLF 10Y


Keep a close eye on the Financials (XLF). As the US Dollar and Rates go, so goes the Financials (they were down -1.4% yesterday) and the market. The long-end of the yield curve needs to rise for the XLF to work – not get “rate guided” down by un-elected bureaucrats in Washington.

Got US #GrowthSlowing yet?

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