THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 12, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 98 points or 4.93% downside to 1730 and 0.45% upside to 1828.                                       

                                                                                        

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.41 from 2.36
  • VIX  closed at 14.51 1 day percent change of -4.91%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 7 (prior 0.4%)
  • 8:45am: Fed’s Bullard speaks in New York
  • 10am: New York Fed issues small business credit survey
  • 10:30am: ECB’s Draghi speaks in Brussels
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, Jan., est. -$10b (pr +$2.9b)

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate may consider legislation to extend debt ceiling following House passage yday
    • 9am: Treasury Dept meeting of Financial Literacy and Education Commission, with Sec. Jack Lew, Delaware Gov. Jack Markell, CFPB Director Richard Cordray
    • 9am: CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight public roundtable on application of Commodity Exchange Act’s trade execution requirement to so-called “package transactions”
    • 10am: Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Cmte Chairman Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, holds news conference to reveal the results of a “Seclusion and Restraints Report”
    • 1pm: Intl Trade Commission begins 2-day public hearing on India’s trade, investment, industrial policies
    • 2:30pm: Senate Energy panel hearing to consider lessons for federal policy from state efficiency and renewable programs

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • House passes measure suspending debt limit until March 2015
  • Fed seen easing capital requirement for smaller foreign banks
  • N.Y. Fed awards primary dealership to Toronto-Dominion Bank
  • China’s exports unexpectedly accelerate as imports increase
  • Ford China says Jan. sales up 53% vs yr earlier
  • Ashland water-chemicals unit said to get 3 bids by deadline
  • MSCI to announce quarterly index rebalancing post-mkt
  • Imerys to buy Amcol for $1.6b to add industrial clays
  • SocGen profit exceeds estimates on consumer banking
  • ING 4Q profit beats ests. as banking unit earnings climb
  • Toyota recalls 1.9m Prius worldwide for software update
  • Pimco boosts government holdings as bonds gain most since 2008
  • SoftBank profit beats ests. as iPhone spurs customer growth
  • Las Vegas Sands sites hacked as posts criticize Adelson
  • Wm Morrison founding family said to sound out buyout firms
  • Reckitt Benckiser sees slowdown as emerging markets weaken
  • Total’s quarterly profit drops as refining margins narrow
  • China’s crude imports surge to record high on stockpiling

AM EARNS:

    • Air Canada (AC/B CN) 6am, C$0.11 - Preview
    • AllianceBernstein (AB) 7:15am, $0.43
    • Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) 7am, $(0.63) - Preview
    • BGC Partners (BGCP) 8am, $0.11
    • Deere & Co (DE) 7am, $1.53 - Preview
    • Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) 8am, $0.84 - Preview
    • EZchip Semiconductor (EZCH) 8am, $0.33
    • Hospira (HSP) 7:30am, $0.50 - Preview
    • Husky Energy (HSE CN) 7am, C$0.38 - Preview
    • Incyte (INCY) 7am, $(0.13)
    • ING US (VOYA) 5:50am, $0.69
    • Lorillard (LO) 7am, $0.85
    • Owens Corning (OC) 7:28am, $0.27
    • Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) 8am, $0.34
    • Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) 6:50am, C$0.74 - Preview
    • Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) 7:30am, $0.43
    • SPX (SPW) 6:30am, $1.82
    • Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) 7am, $0.52
    • Valspar (VAL) 7:30am, $0.66
    • Vonage Holdings (VG) 8am, $0.03

PM EARNS:

    • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM CN) 5pm, $0.20 - Preview
    • American Equity Investment (AEL) 4pm, $0.50
    • Angie’s List (ANGI) 4:05pm, $0.13
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:02pm, $0.22 - Preview
    • CBS (CBS) 4:01pm, $0.76 - Preview
    • CenturyLink (CTL) 4:07pm, $0.59
    • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) 4:15pm, $0.59
    • Cisco Systems (CSCO) 4:05pm, $0.46 - Preview
    • Corrections of America (CXW) 4:15pm, $0.41
    • Fidelity National Financial (FNF) 4:03pm, $0.35
    • Intrepid Potash (IPI) 4:05pm, $0.01
    • Kinross Gold (K CN) 5pm, $0.03 - Preview
    • MetLife (MET) 4:05pm, $1.29
    • Mondelez Intl (MDLZ) 4:02pm, $0.44
    • NetApp (NTAP) 4:01pm, $0.71
    • NetEase (NTES) 6pm, $1.42
    • NVIDIA (NVDA) 4:20pm, $0.24
    • Regency Centers (REG) 4:30pm, $0.17
    • Rovi (ROVI) 4:05pm, $0.57
    • Ruckus Wireless (RKUS) 4:05pm, $0.05
    • Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) 5:10pm, C$0.69
    • SunPower (SPWR) 4:05pm, $0.28
    • TAL International (TAL) 5:01pm, $1.00
    • Taubman Centers (TCO) 4:01pm, $0.70
    • Whole Foods Market (WFM) 4:03pm, $0.44 - Preview
    • Zillow (Z) 4:30pm, $0.07 - Preview

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Natural Gas Rises for Second Day on Outlook for Inventory Drop
  • Rice Tumbling as Thailand’s Unpaid Farmers Demand Stockpile Sale
  • Soy Switch on U.S. Corn Farms Expanding World Glut: Commodities
  • Copper Advances as Imports of Metal Into China Jump to Record
  • Gold Falls From 3-Month High on Stocks as Advance Curbs Demand
  • Credit Curbs Help Fuel Record Chinese Imports From Copper to Ore
  • LME Aluminum Benchmark Challenged as CME Plans New Contract
  • Rubber Exporters in Thailand to Avoid Selling Below Output Cost
  • Corn Slides a Third Day Amid Expectations for Record World Crop
  • Glencore Joins Trafigura Cutting LME Warehouses Before New Rules
  • Gasoline Profit Seen Gaining in U.S. as Refineries Shut: Energy
  • Storm Bringing Ice to Atlanta as Northeastern U.S. Faces Snow
  • China Eating 50% of Global Pork May Spur Industry Consolidation
  • WTI Rises to 7-Week High as Distillate Supplies Drop Amid Freeze

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more