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Takeaway: We reiterate our Best Idea shorts: BLMN, CAKE, MCD, PBPB, PNRA.

Last night, Malcolm Knapp released sales results for January, estimating that same-restaurant sales and guest counts declined -2.6% and -4.4%, respectively, versus January 2013.  On a two-year average basis, same-restaurant sales and guest counts declined -1.6% and -3.3%, respectively.


January did, however, mark a period of sequential improvement.  The results imply a sequential acceleration of 350 bps and 340 bps for same-restaurant sales and guest counts, respectively. On a two-year average basis, the results imply a sequential acceleration of 225 bps and 235 bps for same-restaurant sales and guest counts, respectively.

Knapp noted that all four weeks in January had both negative same-restaurant sales and guest count results.  While January benefitted from gift card redemption, weather was a widespread and fluctuating issue.  Parts of the East Coast and Midwest were hit particularly hard during the month.

We will release more data when Black Box Intelligence reports, including any revisions to company specific 1Q14 same-restaurant sales estimates in January.

Howard Penney

Managing Director