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THE M3: CHINESE TRAVEL DESTINATIONS; YUAN LOANS

THE MACAU METRO MONITOR, JANUARY 15, 2014

 

 

WHERE THE RICH CHINESE ARE TRAVELING IN 2014 WSJ

Japan has emerged as the most desired destination for China’s wealthy travelers this year, according to a recent report by Travelzoo Asia-Pacific.  The weak yen has made Japan a new shopping paradise for deep-pocketed Chinese travelers.  Travelzoo is a mass-market player in most countries, but it targets the high-end travel market in China. 

 

While Chinese tourists are becoming fonder of visiting foreign countries, the feeling isn’t mutual among foreign travelers visiting China.  The number of people who entered mainland China fell by 2.5% YoY during the first 11 months of 2013, while their expenditure fell more by 4.4% in the same period, according to China’s Tourism Bureau.

 

CHINA DECEMBER NEW YUAN LOANS MISS EXPECTATIONS RTT News

Chinese banks extended CNY 482.5 billion in new yuan loans in December, less than CNY 570 billion forecast by economists. China's aggregate social financing came in at CNY 1.23 trillion in December, unchanged from November, but higher than the expected CNY 1.14 trillion. 


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 14, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or 1.03% downside to 1820 and 0.50% upside to 1848.                    

                                                                                                           

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.48 from 2.49
  • VIX closed at 12.28 1 day percent change of -7.53%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Jan. 10 (prior 2.6%)
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Jan., est. 3.5 (prior 0.98)
  • 8:30am: PPI m/m, Dec., est. 0.4%  (prior -0.1%)
  • 9:15am: BoE’s Carney speaks in London
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4b-$5b in 2018-2019 sector
  • 12:50pm: Fed’s Evans speaks in Coralville, Iowa
  • 2pm: Fed releases Beige Book
  • 5:45pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Atlanta

GOVERNMENT:

    • 10am: House Financial Services Cmte hearing on impact of Volcker Rule, including req’d divestiture of some collateralized debt obligations
    • 10am: Sens. Ron Wyden, D-Ore.; Johnny Isakson, R-Ga.; Reps. Erik Paulsen, R-Minn.; Peter Welch, D-Vt., announce bill aimed at Medicare beneficiaries living with multiple chronic illnesses
    • 10am: House Veterans Affairs Cmte hearing on VA sourcing of surgical implants, incl. body tissue, for use in former troops
    • 10am: House Foreign Affairs Cmte hearing on South Sudan
    • 10am: Senate Finance Cmte hearing on nomination of R. Gil Kerlikowske to be commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection
    • 1:05pm: Obama to discuss economy at Raleigh, N.C., event
    • 2pm: Senate Banking panel holds hearing on regulating financial holding companies and commodities

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • World Bank raises global growth forecasts for 2014
  • Abu Dhabi fund, GIC said to invest in Time Warner HQ
  • Volcker rule curbs on banks owning CDOs eased by regulators
  • Senate bid to renew jobless benefits collapses amid sparring
  • California bullet train may see funding shortfall: L.A. Times
  • Deutsche Bank suspends FX trader in New York, Welt Reports
  • AbbVie, Alexion slated to present at JPM Healthcare Conference
  • EU reins in high-frequency traders, commodity speculators
  • Laura Ashley sells stake in Moss Bros
  • China Mobile IPhone pre-registrations reach about 1m
  • German 2013 GDP growth, deficit miss est.
  • China’s credit growth slows as leaders curb speculation
  • Warrants for records said no burden as Obama readies NSA changes

EARNINGS:

    • Bank of America (BAC) 7am, $0.27 - Preview
    • Clarcor (CLC) Aft-Mkt, $0.70
    • CSX (CSX) 4:03pm, $0.43
    • Fastenal (FAST) 6:50am, $0.34 - Preview
    • HB Fuller (FUL) 6:01pm, $0.75
    • Kinder Morgan (KMI) 4:05pm, $0.34
    • Plexus (PLXS) 4pm, $0.61

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Brent Crude Declines to Two-Month Low as Libya Output Recovers
  • Libya’s First Oil Expansion in 10 Months Aiding Refiners: Energy
  • Copper Falls as Chinese New-Credit Slump Fuels Demand Concern
  • Cocoa Nears Three-Week High on European Processing; Coffee Drops
  • Gold Declines on Outlook for Less Stimulus, Strengthening Dollar
  • Corn Retreats as Argentine Crops May Benefit From Weekend Rain
  • Zinc Was in Shortage in November, Study Group Figures Show
  • Commodity Slump Spurs INTL FCStone Asia Growth as Banks Cut
  • Coffee Farmers in Vietnam Curb Sales From Record Crop Before Tet
  • Indonesia Mineral Export Ban Risk Additional Changes: Eurasia
  • Braskem to Work With Siluria on Making Ethylene From Methane Gas
  • South African Gold Mines Face Strike Notices Over Pay From AMCU
  • EU Clears Way for Fracking With Voluntary Environmental Rules
  • Barry Callebaut Says Africa Cocoa Deliveries Cut Global Shortage

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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So easy, even a mucker can do it!

Takeaway: I'm sticking with our process. It works.

The Nikkei no likey that whole Down Dollar, Up Yen move, eh?

 

Japan was whacked -3.1% overnight as the Yen signaled immediate-term TRADE overbought versus the US Dollar in our model yesterday. The Yen down -0.6% now on the day should mean Nikkei up tonight.

 

So easy, even a mucker can do it! - Yen NKY

 

That gives me confidence being long the S&P 500 for the first time here in 2014. (I bought it at 3:38pm ET yesterday in Real-Time Alerts.)

 

Another reason why I bought the S&P 500 and covered shorts into the close yesterday was VIX is under 14.91 resistance. That’s my TREND resistance line and SPX immediate-term TRADE oversold at 1817.

 

I'm simply sticking with our process.

 

Editor's note: This is a free excerpt of CEO Keith McCullough's morning research. For more information on what we offer here at Hedgeye click here.

 


Position Monitor: Selling Mednax $MD

Takeaway: We're selling MD and hoping (planning) for a chance to buy it back lower on Q413 earnings.

This note was originally published January 14, 2014 at 11:25 in Healthcare

Position Monitor: Selling Mednax $MD - tobin1

 

SELLING MD:  After a 21% return ,we're closing our long position in MD.  We've been running a survey of OB/GYNs for several months.  The survey asks specifically about deliveries and pregnancy in the prior month and the outlook for the current month, and both are weak in Q413.  Delivery trends registered a reading of 45.0 in the most recent completed month and 44.0 for the trailing 3 months.  A reading below 50 suggests contraction.  

 

Position Monitor: Selling Mednax $MD - mednax

 

TOUGHEST COMPARE IN 6 YEARS: Birth comparisons are the toughest they've been in 6 years in Q413, with Q412 registering +1.6% growth.  As a result, and because maternity (still) drives same store results, we believe same store volume will be down substantially more than guidance of "essentially flat" for Q413.

 

PARITY & DEALS: While the catalysts of pricing parity and acquisitions remain, our current view is that weaker sequential same store volume will offset any positive updates on deals or parity payments.  As a reminder, MD missed their 2013 deal guidance, but calmed concerns by filing a universal shelf implying bigger deals in the future.  Since then, only 1 deal has been announced and was too small to require financial disclosures.

 

SENTIMENT: From a factor perspective, the decline in the short interest has largely played out and is clearly no longer the positive catalyst it had been.  Additionally, sellside ratings continue to fall, and based on history, does not set up well for forward returns either. 

 

Position Monitor: Selling Mednax $MD - deliveries completed JAN13

Position Monitor: Selling Mednax $MD - MD NICU SAME UNIT

Position Monitor: Selling Mednax $MD - Births 1H13

 

Editor's note: This was written by Tom Tobin, Healthcare Sector Head at Hedgeye Risk Management. Click here to learn more about becoming a Hedgeye subscriber.

 

 



 

 



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