THIS WEEK'S MACAU #S MAY NOT BE RELIABLE

Before we get to the projections, we would like to point out one strange anomaly:  the first 13 days of last year January produced exactly the same table revenue as the first 12 days as this year – HK$11,625 million.  We’ve seen the Macau government use placeholders before so we would caution investors that this week’s numbers may not be reliable.  Typically, placeholder weeks are followed by the volatility one would expect from a catch up month.

 

Assuming the numbers are real, average daily table revenues grew 1% above the comparable period last year and are up over 8% YTD.  We are reducing our full month estimate from 22-28% YoY growth to 19-25% as a result of the softer week and expectation that virtually all of the incremental gaming revenue from the Chinese New Year celebration will occur in February.  Our estimates for January and February growth remain above the Street consensus.

 

Anecdotally, we’re hearing that VIP volumes remain high, VIP hold may be a little low, and Mass traffic has slowed from week one to week two.

 

In terms of market shares, SJM is the big loser while LVS the winner this past week.  Month to date, MGM has moderated but still remains above trend as does LVS and Galaxy.

 

THIS WEEK'S MACAU #S MAY NOT BE RELIABLE - macau1

 

THIS WEEK'S MACAU #S MAY NOT BE RELIABLE - macau3


7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more