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Wynn proving the capacity constrained bears wrong. Street estimates likely to be exceeded, handily.

  • WYNN could do close to $2 in earnings in Q4 and over $9 in 2014  – the Street isn’t even close
  • As we’ve noted for months, Wynn Macau began a more aggressive Mass marketing and promotional campaign in October
  • Not only has Mass share increased but Wynn actually led the market in growth in December

A same-store growth story has emerged big time over the past few months and its name is WYNN.  Yeah, I know the stock has done well but so have all the Macau stocks – business is booming.  But the WYNN thesis was Cotai in 2016, new Asian gaming markets, and best in class safety.  Same-store growth wasn’t part of the thesis.  It is now.

LADIES & GENTLEMEN: WYNN THE GROWTH COMPANY - wynn1

Consistent with our opinion set forth in our 10/25/13 note, “WYNN TO FEAST ON THE MASS COMPETITION?”, we believe Wynn will be a market share gainer in Macau. Wynn’s rewards program and marketing effort was one of the least effective in Macau.  That began changing in October and the results are evident.  We believe much of the recent gains will drop to the bottom line and continue throughout 2014. 

For Q4, we are projecting company EBITDA and EPS of $457 million and $1.97 versus the Street at $414 million and $1.63, respectively.  Our 2014 estimates $1.98 billion and $9.15, respectively, exceed the Street's ($1.76 billion and $7.39) dramatically. 

For Wynn Macau, our Q4 and 2014 property level EBITDA estimate stand at $381 million and $1.59 billion, respectively, versus the Street at $323 million and $1.40 billion.  Our Las Vegas estimates do not differ materially from the Street.