Adjusting hold to normal for both periods, December GGR would’ve grown a whopping 26% (off of a tough 20% compare) rather than the nominal 18% growth disclosed last week. Of course, Mass led the way with 35% growth vs “only” 12% VIP revenue growth. However, Rolling Chip volume actually grew over 23%. The better than advertised December gives us more comfort in our January projection of 22-28% YoY growth.
Here are some Market and Operator takeaways from December:
Macau Market
- Estimated VIP hold (adjusted for Direct VIP) was only 2.85% versus normal of 3.00% and 3.14% last year
- The December comp of +20% was the most difficult since April
- Even slot revenue participated, up 10%
LVS
- December was an outstanding month for the best positioned operator
- LVS came within 60bps of share of overtaking SJM as top dog, driven in part to low hold
- VIP hold (adjusted for Direct VIP) was higher at 3.3% vs 3.2% last year and normal of 2.8%
- Mass share was slightly above trend but Rolling Chip share was well below trend due in part to the House playing lucky
- GGR grew 31% YoY, 2nd only to Wynn
- Mass growth of 57% led the market
WYNN
- WYNN is a growth story again! As we’ve discussed, Wynn Macau has made a more aggressive marketing/promotional push the last few months.
- YoY growth led the market for the first time in years, despite lower than normal VIP hold
- Mass growth of 30% was the property’s 2nd highest in 2 years
- Encouragingly, Wynn’s Rolling Chip growth led the market
- Mass and Rolling Chip share came in above recent trend
MPEL
- Share climbed above trend in December due to high hold – 50bps and 40bps above last year and normal, respectively
- Mass share was higher than trend while Rolling Chip continues to trend lower – possible losing share to LVS and Wynn
- GGR grew 25% YoY
- RC was up only 2%
- We think MPEL could be a market share loser in 2014
MGM
- Hold fell well below last year but was close to normal
- Mass revenue actually declined YoY – 1st time in 4 years - no doubt as a result of Wynn’s aggressive Mass push
- VIP volumes remain strong
GALAXY
- Mass growth of “only” 28% was the lowest in 4 years
- Rolling Chip volume growth remained strong
- Market share was the 2nd lowest of 2013, due in part to low VIP hold
SJM
- VIP hold fell below last year's and normal, resulting in below trend market share
- GGR grew only 8%, 2nd slowest behind MGM
- On a YoY basis, SJM grew Mass 26% - the highest growth rate in nearly 2 years
