Macau is off to a strong start, albeit only 5 days of data with average daily table revenues of HK$1,057MM up 19% over the comparable week last year.
We are currently projecting full month gross gaming revenues (GGR) of HK$32.0 to HK$33.5 billion or +23-28% growth YoY. This is probably more aggressive than the Street. Our model takes into account seasonally adjusted sequential trends and other adjustments and has proven to be more accurate, in our opinion.
Last January, GGR increased only 7% on slightly below normal hold with VIP revenue actually declining YoY. Chinese New Year falls on January 31st in 2014 versus February 10th last year. Most of the gaming business associated with the celebration typically occurs beginning on “New Year’s Eve” and for the subsequent 10-14 days. January 2014 should get a slight boost over 2013 but not much on a relative basis since most of celebration falls in February of both years.
Market shares are in the 2nd table but are meaningless after only 5 days of data. We continue to expect LVS to be the biggest share gainer in the coming months with Wynn Macau also increasing share, particularly on the Mass side. SJM, MGM, and MPEL could be at risk for minor share loss.