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TOP READ NOTES: DECEMBER 2013

Takeaway: Below we rank our top read notes from December. Click the note title for access.

TOP 10 MOST READ NOTES: DECEMBER 2013

  1. 12/19/13 – Best Idea Update: Short PNRA
  2. 12/19/13 – DRI: Not Enough
  3. 12/20/13 – DRI: Clarence’s Legacy, A Half-Baked Plan
  4. 12/18/13 – SBUX: Losing A Little Momentum
  5. 12/09/13 – MCD: Rebuilding Not Strengthening
  6. 12/17/13 – Best Idea Update: Long DRI
  7. 12/03/13 – KKD: Déjà Vu (Buy The Dip)
  8. 12/05/13 – Casual Dining Anomaly
  9. 12/04/13 – YUM Analyst Day
  10. 12/11/13 – Restaurant Impossible: Fixing Olive Garden

Feel free to contact us if you have any questions, or would like to discuss any of our work in more detail.

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 


THE M3: GGR, S'PORE GGR; H9N2 BIRD FLU

THE MACAU METRO MONITOR, JANUARY 2, 2014

 

 

DECEMBER 2013 GGR DSEC

Macau GGR reached a new record of 33.46BN MOP (32.48 BN HKD, 4.19 BN USD) in December, 18.5% YoY growth (consensus +13.6%)

 

SINGAPORE'S ECONOMY GROWS 4.4% ON-YEAR IN Q4 2013 Channel News Asia

According to advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry, the Singapore economy grew 4.4% YoY in 4Q 2013.  On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy contracted by 2.7% in 4Q.

 

HK CONFIRMS H9N2 HUMAN INFECTION Macau Daily Times

A rare case of a human contracting H9N2 bird flu was detected in HK yesterday, according to the HK health authorities.  An expert in HK said that the virus does not spread to humans easily, and that there is currently no evidence of human transmission.  The Macau Health Bureau warns that the flu virus could become active again as temperatures decline.



Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%

Ask For The Truth

“If any man seeks for greatness, let him forget greatness, and ask for the truth – and he will find both.”

-Horace Mann

 

There’s a blizzard rolling in on the East Coast this morning and they’ll be legally selling pot in Colorado today. Welcome to 2014.

 

Last year I had a well known pundit tell me I wasn’t being “truthful” about US #GrowthAccelerating. The truth is US growth accelerated from +0.14% in Q412 to +4.12% by Q313. So I thought I’d start with the weather this morning. It’s tougher to obfuscate.

 

One thought I’ll share with our team in this morning’s New Year’s meeting will be to Breathe and Be Yourself. That’s a subtitle to a solid chapter in Unusually Excellent titled “Being Authentic” where John Hamm reminds us that “authenticity is the first step of leadership… because it is the basis for the kinds of trusting relationships with followers…” (pg 27). Ask yourself for the truth, every day.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

While we may not always be positioned for it, in this game last price is truth. We can argue with it, twist it, call it names – but that won’t change what it is. It’s the score.

 

Check out some of this morning’s Day 1 of 2014 scores:

  1. Thailand’s stock market -5.2%
  2. South Korea’s stock market -2.2%
  3. India’s stock market -1.3%
  4. Greece’s stock market +2.6%
  5. United Arab Emirates stock market +3.0%

#Fun. We call this a big macro day of #Divergence in Global Equities.

 

In commodity land, there are some interesting price % moves as well:

  1. Silver +3.2%
  2. Platinum +1.6%
  3. Wheat +0.8%

In other words, 3 of the commodities that experienced the biggest crashes in their 2013 prices are up more than mostly every commodity and stock market in the world today. We call this a nice bounce (to lower-highs).

 

Then alongside the #PotShops thing in Denver, you have some other social truths to consider in Japan this morning:

  1. Japan’s population growth (lack thereof) showed its largest decline on record in 2013 (-244,000)
  2. Japanese births were -6,000 y/y and deaths were -19,000 y/y in 2013, allegedly (hard for us to get to these #s)

But don’t worry, after opting for the Burning of The People’s Purchasing Power (their hard earned currency was -17% in 2013), the Japanese stock market was +59.3%. So some people crushed it in Japan; some people got crushed.

 

What do all these truths mean? And are they in fact truths? What if the birth/death calculation in Japan is as suspect as it is here in the US? However suspect the data, our working assumption here @Hedgeye is it’s apples to apples, suspect vs suspect.

 

Accepting the last market price as truth is a lot easier than taking conflicted and compromised government data at face value. The aforementioned 8 price moves in global equities and commodities, combined with what was already starting to move COUNTER-TREND in December, leads my macro craw to the same potential Global Macro Theme: Inflation Expectations Rising.

 

Stay tuned for our Q1 2014 Global Macro Themes call in the coming weeks where we’ll try our best to contextualize a developing truth (last price vs. market history) and what it could mean for your asset allocation and positioning.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now as follows (bullish or bearish TREND duration in brackets):

 

UST 10yr yield 2.97-3.07% (bullish)

SPX 1 (bullish)

Gold 1180-1223 (bearish)

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Ask For The Truth - Chart of the Day

 

Ask For The Truth - Virtual Portfolio


January 2, 2013

January 2, 2013 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

January 2, 2013 - Slide2

January 2, 2013 - Slide3

January 2, 2013 - Slide4

January 2, 2013 - Slide5

January 2, 2013 - Slide6

January 2, 2013 - Slide7

January 2, 2013 - Slide8

January 2, 2013 - Slide9

 

BEARISH TRENDS

January 2, 2013 - Slide10

January 2, 2013 - Slide11
January 2, 2013 - Slide12

January 2, 2013 - Slide13


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 2, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or 0.99% downside to 1830 and 0.52% upside to 1858.                                          

                                                                                     

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.64 from 2.65
  • VIX closed at 13.72 1 day percent change of 1.18%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Init. Jobless Claims, Dec. 28, est. 342k (pr 338k)
  • 8:58am: Markit US PMI final, est. 54.7 (prior 54.7)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec. 29 (prior -27.4)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, Dec., est. 56.8 (prior 57.3)
  • 10am: Construction Spending M/m, Nov., est. 0.7% (pr 0.8%)

GOVERNMENT:

    • No major events scheduled

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Fiat to buy full control of Chrysler in $4.35b deal
  • Ford adds SunPower solar cells to recharge electric concept car
  • Macau Dec. casino rev. rises 18.5%, beating est.
  • U.S. Northeast storm threatens travel disruptions
  • U.S., Canada box office set 2013 record
  • U.S. solar battery makers ask for probes into Chinese products
  • Samsung’s Lee urges shift beyond hardware in Apple battle
  • Berkshire seen failing Buffett’s 5-yr test for 1st time
  • Chinese manufacturing indexes fell in Dec.
  • AllThingsD editors unveil technology-news Site called Re/Code
  • Oil impurities, labeling being probed in rail explosions: WSJ
  • ICE said to seek EU1b-1.5b in Euronext IPO, Telegraaf reports
  • Motorola Moto X smartphone now starting at $399
  • Google to shut down Bump, Flock: TechCrunch
  • Snapchat account information of 4.6m said leaked: CNET

EARNINGS:

    • No earnings scheduled by S&P 500 companies

  

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Copper Touches Six-Month High as Inventories Continue to Shrink
  • Cheaper Hanoi Pork Shows Crops Ease World Food Cost: Commodities
  • Brent Trades Near One-Week Low as Libya Oilfield Seen Restarting
  • Gold Rebounds With Silver After Worst Annual Retreats Since 1981
  • U.S. Natural Gas Rebounds From Biggest Drop in Eight Months
  • Wheat Prices Steady in Paris Before Grain Trading Starts on CBOT
  • Rebar Rises First Time in Three Days as Property Prices Advance
  • Cocoa Drops Below 100-Day Moving Average as Robusta Catches Up
  • World’s Biggest Iron-Ore Port Opens as Australia Storm Fades
  • Perth Mint Gold Sales Jump 41% in 2013 on Worst Rout in 32 Years
  • LBMA Says Rene Hochreiter Most Accuarate Gold Forecaster in ’13
  • South African White Corn Rises to 17-Year High on Supply Concern
  • OPEC Oil Output Declines to Lowest Since July 2011: BI Chart
  • Palm Ends Near Three-Week High After First Annual Gain Since ’10

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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